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European Window: Brent Falls Below $85.50/bbl

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Power plant for Industrial Estate at twilight

The September Brent Futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, trading between $85.30/bbl and $86/bbl. The slow rise to $86/bbl by 16:20 BST was swiftly followed by a retracement down to just below $85.40/bbl, where it resides as of 16:55 BST (time of writing). Russia’s oil and gas revenue in June is set to rise by more than 50% y-o-y to $9.4 billion, after a decrease in subsidies to refineries, accounting for around a third to half of the total federal budget and reflecting the Russian economy’s ability to limit the impact of sanctions. Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA has begun using tankers that navigate off radar to supply its closest political ally, Cuba, as a fleet of state-owned vessels that historically covered the route dwindles. Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest airline group, will introduce a surcharge of up to €72 per flight next year to cover the rising costs of alternative “green” fuels needed to lower aircraft emissions. Finally, Egypt has announced the import of an additional 300kmt of diesel for $180 million to operate power plants and reduce load shedding. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Oct/Mar’25 spreads are $0.65/bbl and $3.21/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.