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European Window: Brent Ticks Down Below $85.25/bbl

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The September Brent futures flat price took a hit this afternoon after trading in a narrow range this morning around $85.70/bbl. Following a brief rise to $86.15/bbl at 10:30 BST, the price collapsed to $84.55/bbl by 15:15 BST, before retracing up to $85.15/bbl, where it remains as of 17:05 BST (time of writing). The still-prompt August Brent futures contract also softened from $87/bbl down to an $86.40/bbl handle ahead of today’s expiry. According to the EIA, US oil demand was at 20.008mb/d in April, nearly 0.5mb/d above the STEO forecast. The EIA also reported US crude production was at 13.248mb/d in April, with March slightly revised down to 13.176mb/d from 13.182mb/d. Equinor says its first Argentina offshore well came up dry, a blow given no clear signs of hydrocarbons were found when the well was expected to produce 200kb/d of oil. Repsol plans to sell up to 49% in its Eagle Ford shale assets in South Texas, in a deal that could value the assets at up to $2 billion. In macroeconomic news, the US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index was unchanged in May from April, with the annual PCE rate decreasing to 2.6% and annual core PCE inflation also easing to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/Mar’25 spreads are $0.80/bbl and $3.66/bbl, respectively. 

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.