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European Window: Brent approaches $83.80/bbl

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Power plant for Industrial Estate at twilight

August Brent futures flat price initially saw choppy price action taking the contract in and out of the $83/bbl handle until 15:00 BST. Following this, we saw the Aug contract register a steadier rise to $83.77/bbl at 17:40 BST (time of writing). ICE’s COT data for the week ending on June 11 showcased money managers removing outright length and shorts in Brent futures by 7.3mb and 38.6mb, respectively. By contrast, prod/merc players added to long and short risk in the benchmark crude futures by over 14.3mb and 44mb, respectively. The North Sea’s Buzzard oil field has reportedly resumed production over the weekend after weeks of shutdown due to an unplanned outage, as per operator CNOCC. In other news, a report published by Rystad Energy claimed that global oil supply growth will likely slow down this year alongside a high possibility of further decline in 2025. Moreover, China reported a slew of mixed macro data today. On one hand, May industrial output fell below expectations at 5.6% y/y (exp: 6.05, prev: 6.7%), while retail sales climbed 3.7% y/y (prev: 2.3%) – their fastest rise since February. The beleaguered Chinese property sector saw new-home and second-hand home prices in 70 major cities fall by 0.71% and 1.0% m/m, respectively, both marking the most significant drop since October 2014. In addition, the PBOC left the MLF (medium-term lending facility) rate unchanged, as expected, at 2.50% amid a weaker yuan, limiting Beijing’s scope to ease monetary policy to support the economy. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month and six-month Brent futures spreads stand at $0.68/bbl and $3.55/bbl, respectively.

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Our team of skilled analysts, by utilising the depth and breadth of Onyx's proprietary data, position ourselves at the cutting edge of market analysis. This unique vantage point grants us an unparalleled perspective in the market, enabling us to identify emerging trends and lucrative opportunities.