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A Tale of Two Margins

Refinery margins calculate a refiner’s profit margins – and usually, we see Asian margins tower over their European counterparts. Why then have M1 Asian margins lately fallen under European margins? Find out the “crude” details about this in our latest article.

Futures Report – Back to $100/bbl?

Technical indicators for the current period highlight contrasting trends across product groups. Brent’s RSI remains in overbought territory, reflecting recent sharp price increases tempered by easing Middle East tensions. Gasoil shows renewed strength, with a firm RSI and widening Bollinger

Future Horizons: A Prudent Perspective

After last weeks bearish run saw a crash from geopolitical risk derived highs, Onyx research suggests cautious room for growth in Brent as tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Onyx Welcomes Group Chief Financial Officer; Andrew Chen

The Onyx Capital Group C suite expands once more as we warmly welcome Andrew Chen as the Group Chief Financial Officer. Andrew joins with over 25 years’ experience in execution and advisory across private equity, equity & debt capital markets and

Filibustering Futures: Onyx report 22-01-24

Brent futures strengthened on the week although remained within neutral territory, with the RBOB and gasoline following in Brent’s neutral footsteps. WTI/Brent boxes remained in contango despite strength in the prompt while refinery margins saw a product driven market with

Eastern Energy… Unmatched

The market price of Russian Urals has seen a significant weakness since the end of October, dropping $24/bbl since the end of Oct to lows of $61.68/bbl observed on Dec 12. The price drop returns Russian crude near the $60/bbl

Crude on Track for First Weekly Gain in Eight-Weeks

The crude futures have been choppy all week and by Friday morning we saw levels largely trading around the $76-77/bbl handles.  Brent prices sank to their lowest since June on Tuesday after being sold off to $73.24/bbl. With the US

Middle Eastern update – 12/12/23

Brent futures saw a slight dip this morning, with the market opening at $76.61/bbl at 06:00 GMT and dropping to lows of $76.05/bbl at 08:30 GMT, prices then rose steadily to $76.32/bbl levels at 10:00 GMT. Today in the news,

CFTC Report: Money managers close positions

The week to Nov 07 saw a continuation of long money managers closing positions, marking two consecutive weeks of removing length, closing over 15mbbls, or 6.3% of all long positions in the week with length now at a four -week

A look into the future(s)

This week we see our favourite futures remain in neutral territory, awaiting with bated breath the decisions of OPEC+’s delayed meeting. Despite the shift in de-risking seen in Brent, the past week has shown increasing correlation between the crude complex and the product futures despite gasoil and heating oil showing upward momentum on the back of tight fundamentals and because *cue Ned Stark voice* winter is coming.

Edge Updates

CFT- See the Futures…

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

CFTC Predictor – Risky Business in Brent

In the week to April 9th, our tool forecasts long speculators added to their positions for the fourth consecutive week while at the same time, short money managers are forecast to have also added to their positions after three consecutive

CFTC Predictor – Brent Bullish Bias

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s

ICE CFTC Report: A Bull vs Bear race

For the week to Mar 26, the crude futures continued to record relatively bullish sentiment but saw a higher level of risk adopted by bearish money managers.

CFTC Predictor: Risky Money

ONYX CFTC PREDICTOR – In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report.

COT Report: Ready, Set, Restart

It’s been a rather forgettable month for Dated Brent, Sing 0.5, and the pronap. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. 

CFTC Predictor: Show me the money!!

ONYX CFTC PREDICTOR – In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report.

Trader Meeting Notes – Election Szn

Just when we were lamenting the sideways action in crude flat price this year, Brent broke out to the upside on Wednesday as prices reached four-month highs at the $85/bbl level. The stars aligned this week as tightening supply around

LNG Gassed The Bulls Out

These last two weeks in LNG: we saw a weak start to the fortnight in the LNG complex, continuing the bearish trend observed since the start of the winter. Apr TTF reached down to a 2.5-year low of around €23.60/MWh on Feb 23. Apr JKM also weakened to around $8.05/MMBtu on Feb 22. Storage continued to be above historical averages with Europe seeing stocks at seasonal highs, currently at 63% of full capacity. Read more in our LNG Report.

Brent Edges Lower in the Afternoon

Having edged above the $83/bbl handles in the day, the May Brent futures contract seems poised to end the afternoon lower, trading at $82.10/bbl at 16.45 GMT. EIA stats released in the afternoon saw US crude inventories rise by over

Brent crude trading below $83/bbl on Monday morning

Crude flat price has been trading a touch below $83/bbl levels on Monday morning, trading at $82.68/bbl at 10:30 GMT. Price action has been well supported amid persistent geopolitical tensions surrounding the Red Sea.

Brent strengthens to $83/bbl handles

The Apr Brent futures contract breached past the $83/bbl handles at 18:25 GMT on Feb 13 but eased off from this level and was seen hovering around $82.85/bbl as of 10:15 GMT today.

COT in the flow

In the volatility generated by the recent developments in the Red Sea and the fears of supply disruptions this may cause, oil markets have been anything but static.

Trading Blows

Oil derivatives saw a strong week, only with stronger volumes as escalations in the Middle Eastern conflict brings about more interest in prompt contracts. Read on for week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for

Gasoline complex ready for summer ?

European Gasoline saw strength in the past fortnight, with the Feb EBOB crack rallying to highs of $13.50/bbl, despite seeing sell side interest. The Sing 92 saw a rally as well, with both EBOB and the 92 contributing heavily to

Oil Market Report: HOMEOSTASIS

With 2023 behind us the oil markets are already looking ahead to uncharted territory, with Brent forecasts for Q1’24 ranging from $78.61/bbl to $94/bbl there promises to be a tumultuous few months ahead as traders come back from the holidays

First COT Report of 2024

With the TA arb dropping to lows despite bullish fundamentals the market seems to be to still be suffering from the holiday hangovers, with liquidity low in the VLSFO and the Naphtha EW, the market seemed to ease off its

Tuesdays are for Trade Ideas

Onyx’s Research team brings you new speculative trades every Tuesday based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

Moving in flow motion

Between the flows and fluctuations of the market, Onyx Research provides a unique report to unveil it all. The Commitment of Traders is a unique report leveraging Onyx proprietary data and methodologies to provide unique speculative market positioning data and flows.