Welcome to our Live Blog of rumours and hearsay in the oil market & beyond throughout the day If you hear otherwise, let us know at jmontepeque@onyxcapitalgroup.com or WhatsApp me at https://wa.me/447817149889
“OPEC+ will need to maintain its current voluntary restraint to balance out growth… This will help prevent global balances from weakening at year-end and preserve a price floor at around $80 a barrel.” – Harry Tchilinguirian Follow Harry on X
Long Aug 3.5 barge crack Structure-wise we have seen Barge cracks create a higher low and starting to push up, its recovering from the oversold territory on the RSI indicating for a potential bullish push, alongside market participants are positioned
Long TA Arb at 12c/gal APIs were quite bullish, showing a 2.8M draw. If today’s EIA statistics are close to these figures, we should expect a bullish movement on RBOB. Additionally, the EBOB front has been sticky due to the
Long Aug/Sep 3.5 Barges Since the start of July, Barge spreads have come off, it seems that it has found support at $5/mt levels as it has struggled to break past, we have also seen recent strength in the Barge
Short Sep Sing 0.5% Crack With more low sulphur fuel oil cargoes arriving from the West to add to existing stockpiles, we expect LSFO to come under pressure. There has been sluggish demand in the world’s largest bunkering hub of
Long Aug/Oct 3.5% Barge Over the last couple of days, we have seen Aug/Oct fall from $19.50 to $13.50. We’re seeing a shift in sentiment this morning at barge cracks, and spreads are being well-bid with little sell side interest
Onyx remains unaffected from the global IT outage and our services continue to function normally without disruptions. Our IT team has confirmed the stability and security of our infrastructure. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and provide updates
With European VLSFO in backwardation in the prompt months, physical traders will note that the arb is open and we should see VLSFO from Europe start to flow to Asia.
Long Aug/Sep 380 China’s average daily oil refining throughput slowed in June, a third month of declines, after more domestic plants shut their operations for maintenance. The Asian nation processed 58.32 million tons of crude last month, 4.3% lower than
Long Aug TA Arb @ 9.90c/gal After the recent sell off in the front TA Arb we have started to see some support at these levels and expect buyside interest to enter the market.
TARGET: $86.00/bbl – $88.00/bbl PRICE: $86.10/bbl Party in the USA? Brent appears confident to break a four-time streak of ending the week stronger than where it began, amid a fall from last week’s rally to a four-month high. Despite this,
SHORT SEP 3.5 BRG CRK Temperatures in Europe have been well above seasonal norms and there’s little sign of that changing anytime soon. Looking further into the future, Sweden’s largest refiner says climate change is making fuel production harder. Temperatures
LONG AUG VISCO Visco have been weakened lately by poor physical demand and trade house selling. It has seen some recovery this week with better demand for 180, as cooling demand has increased due to hot weather in the Middle
This week Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi brings you trades in Asian High Sulfur Fuel Oil and Northwestern European propane. Firstly, we take a short-positioned view of Singapore 380 fuel oil spreads. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of heavy distillates have increased 1.6%
Long Aug/Sep 380 spread : Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380 spread. Hot weather in the Middle East and Persian Gulf were expected to maintain power generator. End-consumers look to cool their houses and buildings. We believe demand for
Onyx Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi reports this week’s Brent forecast.
Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges : Our trade idea is to long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges. Since 1st of July we have seen bullish movements with 3.5 Barge spreads, trading from $8/mt up to now currently trading at $11/mt. We believe spreads will
Long Aug 3.5 Barge crack: Our trade idea is to long Aug 3.5 Barge crack – recently we have seen weakness with the barge crack, trading down from -$7.60/bbl to -$8.90/bbl. However there has been a slight retracement back up
Long Aug/Sep 380: Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380. We have seen continuous rally of Aug/Sep 380 spread since 1st of July. We believe there is still bullish momentum pushing the spreads up higher. For brokerage services across
Long Aug 380 EW: Barge cracks are under pressure due to continued deferred barge crack selling. We think aug 380 EW will be supported on the back of this. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly
We have seen Aug 380 crack has been trading between trading between -$6.65/bbl and -$5.85/bbl since 21st June, showing no real directional movement. Aug 380 crack is trading at a technical support level alongside RSI heading towards oversold territory, we
TARGET PRICE: $83/bbl – $85/bbl PRICE: $85.80/bbl Return of the pre-weekend bulls? On Monday, we forecast short-term bearishness to take the benchmark Brent crude futures to $83-85/bbl by the end of this week. We now see the September futures contract
Short July 0.5 Sing crack Recently, the crack showed significant strength, trading up to $11.45/bbl due to concerns about potential supply issues following a fire at the Dangote refinery. However, Bloomberg reported that the incident was minor and the refinery
In this white paper, Onyx’s team explores the effectiveness of the CFTC COT Report in analysisng market positioning in the oil derivatives complex. Analysis suggests that for an up to date, expansive interpretation of current trader positioning for the whole
Short July 92/MOPJ 92 has been struggling to keep up with the recent strength in RBOB and there is still a firm bullish trend in naphtha. We think this will continue into the end of the month so we expect
Long Q3 EBOB Crack After initial weakness this morning hanging over from yesterday, we think it’s a good opportunity to try and fade that weakness and take an opposing position. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Technical fluff that has propped up Brent, thanks to a certain pair of hot hands in the North Sea, will likely
prove unsustainable.
Too close to the sun? The prompt Brent futures flat price contract recorded great strength last week. The contract began the week at $84.25/bbl and rallied past the $86/bbl handle on 21 June – where it met resistance. We now see the contract hovering around $85.30/bbl at 08:30 BST (time of writing), although we anticipate short-term bearishness to take the benchmark crude futures to $83-85/bbl by Friday. This expectation emerges out of three key factors:
Short July Arb At these levels we anticipate some physical sell side interest on the front arb, with arb opportunities becoming more favourable. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly trade ideas: insight@onyxcapitaladvisory.com
In Asia, the Dubai players were at it again vigorously, with Petrochina playing a less prominent role while
Exxon came out swinging.
TARGET PRICE: $82/bbl – $84/bbl PRICE: $85/bbl Is Summer Demand Finally Here? The crude oil futures market is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain on signs of better demand as Brent futures rallied to seven-week highs. We initially
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
From East to West, from trading companies to majors, from Dubai to Brent, the rival BFFs are letting loose their cannonades on one another.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts selling off at the end of last week, highlighting oversold conditions for Brent, ICE LS gasoil and RBOB – based on both the RSI and Bollinger bands for the latter two.
In the week ending 09 July, managed-by-money participants took a risk-on approach to the benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil futures, adding a combined 13.5mb (+2.47%) to their long positions and a 1.6mb (+1.35%) to their short positions
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The Onyx Futures COT Report seeks to aggregate ICE and CFTC data and present it in a simple format that is digestible and beneficial to all participants in the oil derivatives space.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
The Onyx Futures COT Report seeks to aggregate ICE and CFTC data and present it in a simple format that is digestible and beneficial to all participants in the oil derivatives space.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
With another week comes another selection of new trade ideas by Onyx Research. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
Technical indicators showed the major futures contracts softening, with the RSI for ICE gasoil and Brent neutral and the RSI for RBOB dropping out of the overbought territory as gasoline traded extremely flat in the week.
In the week ending 09 July, managed-by-money participants took a risk-on approach to the benchmark Brent and WTI crude oil futures, adding a combined 13.5mb (+2.47%) to their long positions and a 1.6mb (+1.35%) to their short positions
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
As the country is gripped with the patriotism that can only come with international football success and anti-Spanish rhetoric that I haven’t heard since Oliver Cromwell, Brent has taken a bit of a dive
In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.
