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Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 04 Nov 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 28 Oct 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 21 Oct 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks, employing a trend following model that uses price data and realized volatility. The week ending 08 Oct saw CTA positioning pick up significantly, after remaining relatively flat for the previous week. There was a net increase of nearly 106mb in combined futures between 01 and 07 Oct, with the rate of growth in CTA positioning slightly slowing towards the end of the week. In crude, we saw net positioning in Brent increase from -37.2mb to -10mb, the largest jump in CTA net positioning across all futures contracts for the week to 08 Oct. Meanwhile, WTI showed a similar pattern, increasing from around -32.1mb to just under -9.7mb over the week. The product’s net positioning all recovered after falling the previous week, including RBOB with the lowest net positioning, increasing from -43.4mb up to -24.1mb by 08 Oct.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

OECD Oil Inventories held by industry

The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 14 Oct 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks, employing a trend following model that uses price data and realized volatility. The week ending 08 Oct saw CTA positioning pick up significantly, after remaining relatively flat for the previous week. There was a net increase of nearly 106mb in combined futures between 01 and 07 Oct, with the rate of growth in CTA positioning slightly slowing towards the end of the week. In crude, we saw net positioning in Brent increase from -37.2mb to -10mb, the largest jump in CTA net positioning across all futures contracts for the week to 08 Oct. Meanwhile, WTI showed a similar pattern, increasing from around -32.1mb to just under -9.7mb over the week. The product’s net positioning all recovered after falling the previous week, including RBOB with the lowest net positioning, increasing from -43.4mb up to -24.1mb by 08 Oct.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 07 Oct 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 01 Oct saw CTA positioning quite flat in the week, overall seeing a small net increase in the combined futures. Since then, there has been good strength from CTAs, with Brent passing its 50-day average, which likely bouldered their strength. In crude, we saw Brent clock in fall in net positioning, from around -30mb to -37mb on 1 Oct. WTI futures also decreased in the week, from over -25mb on 24 Sep to -33mb on 1 Oct. The largest increase in CTA net positioning in the week to 01 Sep was in ICE Brent. The products’ net positioning all fell weakly, with RBOB seeing RBOB continuing to see the lowest net positioning in tepid market conditions.

Brent Forecast: 7th October

Powered by Volatility The Dec’24 Brent futures contract fell below $78.00/bbl on Friday evening but again rallied to $79.65/bbl on 07 Oct at 10:40 BST (time of writing). Volatility remains elevated in the benchmark crude futures contract, leading us to

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 30 Sep 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 27 Sep saw CTA positioning rise and fall, overall to leave a very small net change. In crude, we saw Brent clock in an almost 0% change increase, w/w, at around -32.8mb after reaching a peak of almost -30mb. WTI futures saw heavier selling as the net positioning fell around 5mb (20%). The largest increase in CTA net positioning in the week to 24 Sep was in ICE Gasoil, which saw an almost 6mb increase, this brought the CTA net positioning for gasoil to the highest in the selected futures.

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 23 Sep 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 20 Sep saw CTA positioning rise across the crude futures alongside oil products albeit still remaining very net short. In crude, we saw Brent and WTI futures clock in a 34% and 39% increase, w/w, to -32.9k lots and -24.5k lots, respectively. This support emerged after CTA positioning approached the “max short” levels recorded in both contracts. Oil products also witnessed a rise in CTA net positioning from last week’s extremely short position. In the middle distillates complex, gasoil and heating oil climbed by 29% and 22%, respectively, to -33k lots each. In gasoline, RBOB futures recorded a 20% increase in CTA net length w/w to -37.8k lots.

Global PMI Report

This report covers services and manufacturing PMI across the G20 countries

Weekly Oil Inventories Report

This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage

US EIA Weekly Report

This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report

OECD Oil Inventories held by industry

The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 16 Sep 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. This past week saw positioning turn more short across crude oil and refined product futures. CTA positioning in Brent and WTI futures fell by 9.80% and 3.65%, respectively, to around -50k and -40k lots on 16 Sep – testing previous “max short” levels for both contracts. At this level, CTAs are at a prime spot to retrace upwards from this extreme positioning. Similarly, we saw CTA positions in gasoil and heating oil decline by 9.85% and 7.90% w/w to -44k lots and -42k lots on 16 Sep. Finally, RBOB futures saw CTA positioning decline by 9.8% to nearly -50k lots, just shy of the eight-year low of -54.5k lots.

Onyx CFTC Style COT Reports – 09 Sep 2024

Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. This past week continued to see net positioning grow shorter in crude and oil products. Brent futures saw net positioning decline by 106% w.w to -45.6mb on 09 Sep, while net positioning in WTI futures declined by 124% to 38.4mb on 09 Sep – the lowest net positioning has been for the benchmark crude futures YTD.

Edge Updates

The Officials: Still all to play for!

Debate and speculation should soon come to an end. From Trump’s criminal trial and expecting Biden to stand for a second term, to Trump’s post-assassination attempt defiant fist raised photo and potentially the first ever female US president. So many models and projections, voter sampling and interviewing. Betting odds versus polling. It all comes down to today. This is the most important election of our lifetime. Hang on, didn’t they say that in 2020? And 2016. And probably 2012 and 2008. Essentially, it’s important. Expect fireworks, and not only in the UK for Guy Fawkes night. The US election is reaching its crescendo after months of build-up and anxiety. We’re sure more than a few grey hairs owe their discolouring to the stressful lead-in. On the final European close before the election, Brent ended at $76.01/bbl but quickly sold off to around $75.50/bbl.

Onyx Alpha: Fuel for Thought?

OCTOBER MONTHLY REVIEW EDITION – Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in crude oil and gasoline swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

The Officials: Markets hold their breath

Brent surpassed $75 yesterday and consolidated those gains today ahead of the US election. It finally closed at $75.26/bbl and rose further after the window. OPEC is surely punching the air. Its announced postponements and dillydallying to returning supply appear to be paying off. But they can’t stave off the inevitable forever. Despite those promises to delay unwinding of cuts, Iran is gearing up to bolster production. The Iranian Economic Council approved the financing of an “urgent” boost to crude output by 250 kb/d, though didn’t provide a timeframe for the increase. We guess Chinese teapots are thirsty for more cheap crude given struggling margins, as 2025’s import quotas just rose. And it’s good for Iran too; it gets to sell more oil!

Oil Monthly Report: Waiting on Uncle Sam

Waiting on Uncle Sam – ICE Brent briefly moved above $80/bbl in early October as Iran, for a second time since April, took aim at Israel, launching some 200 ballistic missiles, exposing holes in Israel’s Iron Dome defence system. Israel initially pressed its advantage in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah and, through a chance encounter in Gaza, killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the 7 October 2023 terrorist attacks. In the early morning hours of Saturday, 26 October, Israel chose to strike back. The much-awaited retaliation was underwhelming, given initial vows of “lethal” and “surprising” retaliation. Israel stayed clear of oil infrastructure, nuclear, or leadership objectives. The US could not have hoped for a better outcome…

The Officials: Get your bets in quick!

The gap between the two US presidential candidates has been closing in both the betting market and polls. FiveThirtyEight shows a 1 point Harris lead on average, where just last week she was 1.4 points ahead. In the betting odds, Polymarket is showing a 58.1% chance of a Trump triumph, 10% lower than last Thursday… it’s like someone is scripting this to go down to the wire. Harris looks set to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket, but it doesn’t matter how many people vote for you if they’re in the wrong place. Many analysts have given a lot of credence to betting odds, so it’s crunch time to see if that confidence was misplaced. The Dems beat Trump to something: 20 states saw gasoline prices fall below $3/gallon!

CFTC Weekly: Bulls In Brent Deflate

In the week ending 29 October, Brent and WTI futures inched up but then saw pressure as they gapped down on 28 Oct as the risk premia built into their flat prices saw a significant reduction due to the Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites being seen as non-excitatory. Both WTI and Brent gapped down on the open, and there was better support at these lower levels. The geopolitical landscape has changed to feel less risk-on, although the rhetoric from Iran has ramped up a bit this week. Still, it will not be represented in the COT data next week.
Both WTI and Brent saw an increase in short positions for the second consecutive week, with their total open interest increasing by over 2.00% (82.9mb). Short interest from funds in Brent Futures by around 9.8mb (11.05%) and a 16.8mb (28.0%) drop in short interest in WTI. The long:short ratio fell from 2.47:1.00 to 2.07:1.00 w/w (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013). Prod/Merc players continued to have a risk-on week, with both longs and shorts increasing their positions by 64mb and 36mb respectively.

Futures Report: America’s Choice

The Jan/Feb’25 Brent futures spread recovered from an intraday low of $0.30/bbl on 29 Oct to an intraday high of $0.46/bbl on 01 Nov, where it met resistance. This recovery emerged amid Iran threatening to retaliate against Israel’s attack, injecting further risk into the market.

The Officials: OPEC postpones the inevitable

OPEC caught us on the blindside with its extension of voluntary cuts, kicking the oil can down the road to at least the end of December. They’ve entrenched themselves in defence of the $70 line, declaring: “No pasarán!” Or is it the $75.00 line? And the markets liked it, with flat price opening around $1.40/bbl up from Friday’s close. OPEC must have enjoyed October’s increased oil prices, pumped up by geopolitical anxieties, and decided it wanted to keep them there. A similar announcement in September provoked little price reaction, as most market participants expected the cuts to be extended, but were more divided for the progression of OPEC’s supply this time. Crucially, in September, they announced a 2 month extension – this time it’s 1 month. Members’ patience is thin; they want to sell crude and they need money!

The Officials: Headlines go both ways

Brent flat price saw a choppy day as the geopolitical risk premium was reignited. We oscillated between $75 and $74 for most of the day. But then the Americans came in and decided the price was too high so sold it down to $73.50. They clearly saw Iran’s promise to hit Israel at the “appropriate time and manner” as an admission an attack wasn’t imminent. After all, we eventually closed at $73.46/bbl. How low will we go once this geopolitical risk premium finally dissipates? The fundamentals don’t look good, whoever you talk to. The stage is set to send this sucker down.

The Officials: Geopolitics spices up the price

A surge upwards on reports Iran would retaliate against Israel yesterday evening set us up to begin November above where we expected, as prices shot up faster than a ballistic missile launch. Markets are still very twitchy hearing headlines about dangerous geopolitical developments. And once the Europeans woke up, they wanted to get in on the action, spurring Brent flat price to almost $75/bbl by 08:45 GMT. A post-window selloff, however, saw it fall back towards $74 before midday.

The Officials: Europe October Review

October has been a rollercoaster ride. With fears of chaos from the Middle East, and hurricanes huffing and puffing across the Gulf of Mexico, we’ve seen some big and sudden price moves. Brent even breached the $81/bbl level at the height of war paranoia. Fortunately, Israel’s relatively minor retaliatory strikes soothed concerns, and we ended up only slightly higher than where we started the month. At least until the latest war talk came out this evening about another major Iranian retaliation. OPEC also semi-announced it would not increase production but only the long traders believe them.

CFTC Predictor: Bears To Take The Lead Amid Fading Geopolitical Risk?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

The Officials: Another turn on the rumour mill

Ahead of tomorrow’s expiry, physical diffs remain backwardated, at around 40c, though the macro picture is little changed. Geopolitical concerns have eased since last week, yet Brent flat price is stubbornly maintaining the $72 handle, with 37c of backwardation in the front spread. But, at 12:25 GMT, a headline reporting OPEC could postpone its supply cut unwind sent flat price straight upwards. We’re still susceptible to aggressive headline moves in such a jittery market, but it’s only a matter of time before the 60s come a-knocking.

The Officials: Asia October Review

Well, we made it through October and we’re almost went back to where we started! The Brent flat price low was on Oct 1 at $70.34/bbl and we closed the Asian oil trading month at $71.95/bbl. What a rollercoaster it has been as our readers grappled with bad macros and two, actually three, recalcitrant nations bent on laying waste to defenceless civilians. Really, the battle of the grandpas. Age is no barrier, particularly when you are in command. We had missiles going there and coming back while producing nations surely thanked the old folks for the widening geopolitical oil premium. Just give it a rest, we say as we look forward to the US elections where almost surely we will have a change in the *** guard. I don’t want to repeat the same adjective, lest someone accuse me of ag*ism. But yeah, despite the boom boom the premium came off and we are again staring at the line where the 7 turns into a 6 and the recurrent budget cutbacks hit the oil industry. We are there anyway and as a prelude results released by the industry are bad, really bad. And even Saudi Arabia is putting out the cap hoping to borrow just a smidge to tide them over. It is that bad.

The Officials: Brent holds onto 70s… for now

A double dump just after 15:00 BST sent Brent flat price well below $71. Or was it a double tap? On the back of the head of course. Netanyahu could hold talks with ministers about an orderly end to the war in Lebanon. We’d be delighted to see a diplomatic resolution but remain cautiously optimistic; we’ve seen many headlines speculating about peace talks in the past year. Strong resistance around $71 held firm despite the headline. But, should that break, we could see a rapid recalibration towards the 60s. There’s a trapdoor. It’s only a matter of time before there’s too much weight on it and we fall through. Brent closed at $71.02/bbl. The 60s are calling… The window saw BP offering Midland at $1.80 over Dated. Eni showed up too, offering Ekofisk at Dated +$1.75, and Mercuria came in to bid for Forties at Dated +$0.45. Totsa took a break from its incessant bidding in Dubai, to offer a Brent at $0.70 over Dated. Diffs are coming back up to around 33c. Brent futures front spreads are 45c, so things are finally starting to make sense again in the North Sea… for now.

Onyx Alpha: Inflection Point

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in gasoline and high sulphur fuel oil swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

The Officials: Dubai on its last legs?

In the window today we got a frenzied cat and mouse. Or perhaps more like a bull and a cowboy, between Totsa and Chevron. Despite le Totsa Taureau’s best efforts, the physical premium got slammed down to 78c in the penultimate Asian trading day of the month. That’s half the value of October’s average premium! Chevron’s cattle wranglers were hitting bids as soon as they landed on the table, catching Totsa in a tight lasso. After Chevron declared an Upper Zakum to Total yesterday, the window’s bonanza saw them converge twice more! This time for another Upper Zakum and an Al Shaheen.

The Officials: Nothing Burger on the menu!

The Nothing Burger US/Israel-Iran ding dong sent prices directly downwards. The low 70s should soon give way to the 60s. We miss the decade, or is it just the music? We’ve already got plenty of anti -war protests, just prepare for a return to rock and roll and big hair dos. Traders needed a moment to breathe after the open’s $3 free fall and prices vibrated around through the day, gradually descending to eventually close at $71.97/bbl.

Futures Report: The Geopolitical Waiting Game

In the early hours of Saturday, Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian military targets, killing 4. This move has temporarily eased the oil market’s anxieties, which have been high on Middle Eastern tensions and the geopolitical risk premium associated. Iran’s response to the strikes has been perceived as quite measured. Ayatollah Khamenei urged caution, emphasising that any response would be a military decision. Israel, on the other hand, seems satisfied with the operation, with Prime Minister Netanyahu describing it as precise and successful. The Biden administration appears keen to cool tensions ahead of the upcoming US election, which has Trump projected to win in many polls and betting sites.

CFTC Weekly: Trick or Sweet (Bear)

In the week ending 22 October, Brent and WTI futures both saw relatively rangebound price movements as the market grappled with fluctuating geopolitical risk sentiment and sluggish Chinese oil consumption. In terms of positioning, money managers got increasingly shorter. Until Israel’s strike on military targets in Iran over the weekend which ultimately deflated the geopolitical risk premium, uncertainty prevailed, with participants expressing varying views regarding potential escalation and ceasefire negotiations. Lacklustre demand from China weighed on sentiment as OPEC and the IEA both cut their global oil demand growth forecasts, with China’s economic troubles being the common denominator.

The Officials: Geopol premium: “I-ran away!”

Well… the Sucker sold off. Macros took over the market and a six handle is coming for a third and final time. The Israeli parsimonious retaliation, if you can call it that, underwhelmed everybody and the market sold off. Oil is off. Depending on the time of the day, it’s 6% off. The Sucker really took it on the chin. Israel struck military targets in Iran early Saturday morning. The poxy retaliation underwhelmed and saw the risk premium get whacked. Front month Brent shed around 5% from Friday’s close. Now the geopolitical risk premium that was fluffing up prices seems to be dissipating, what’s left to stop the free fall? Macros are really bad, the Saudis are bringing production back in December, and ADNOC looks set to follow. Sentiment is undeniably bearish, and a descent to a $60 handle looks almost certain. Will we even be trading Brent with a number starting with 5 soon? The market has to facilitate storage and for that it needs contango.

The Officials: Trump barrels ahead

The US is looking ever more set for a return to Trump. Bookies are now giving the Donald a 65.6% chance of winning the election, less than two weeks before the polls. The polls still show the two on level pegging. Which do you trust more? Additional supply coming from OPEC in December might offer some help to struggling margins, as crude prices should fall and thus open up the margin. Additional voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Russia, the UAE and some other members took 2.2 mb/d off the market. If the Saudis are bringing back around 1 mb/d, as we’ve heard they are, that leaves 1.2 mb/d unaccounted for and we don’t imagine the Russians or Iraqis will want to miss out on that kind of market share and potential revenue. As our catchphrase goes: they need the money!

The Officials: Sellers grab Dubai by the horns!

Le Totsa Taureau says “Sacré bleu!” as the physical premium is eviscerated. Exxon was leading the charge. We’ve been thinking the physical premium for Dubai was disproportionately strong given the weak fundamental picture in Asia. And today we saw that differentials collapse. Those betting physical Dubai would keep up its momentum have seen those hopes go down the drain. The physical premium tumbled by 39c all the way down to $1.14 – that’s the lowest we’ve seen since 27 August!

The Officials: The US must be BRICcing it!

It rose, then it fell much further. By lunchtime Brent had hit the mid $76 level but fell towards the low $74 through the afternoon. It settled here and closed at $74.52/bbl. Brent front spreads had strengthened with the spike in flat price, peaking at 46c, but came off in parallel too, down to 38c.
The window was silent – no bids nor offers to be seen. And the North Sea may become quieter still; Harbour Energy wants to end its operations in area. Just another party jumping ship before high taxes take effect. Laffer curve in action (for the economics nerds). Serica Energy also sees the UK’s jurisdiction in the North Sea as “un-investible”. It’s not looking all that great for the UK’s oil industry.

The Officials: Hey, have you been hurt yet?

We hear that one of your favourite and most widely used benchmark producers – not us, obviously – is going for a tight embrace when it comes to setting subscription renewal rates. Their grip is so tight your eyes bulge first and then your guts burst out, so we are told. A squeeze so tight, it’s putting every trader’s efforts in Dated Brent to shame. The grapevine also reported that at least one subscriber was invited to renew at a 300% increase!

CFTC Predictor: Bulls To Rise Amid Intensifying Geopolitical Risk?

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

The Officials: Flat price can’t make its mind up

A steady morning selloff was reversed when the US came in and started buying at lunchtime, sending Brent back upwards. It peaked at $75.70/bbl but fell back down after the unexpectedly large 5.47 mb build in EIA inventories surprised markets and triggered a quick sell off. It finally closed at $74.92/bbl. The EIA’s weekly inventories data showed a far bigger build than their API counterpart last night. Gasoline stocks also grew, by 878 kb. But keep an eye on Cushing, which saw a draw in its stocks of 350 kb.

The Officials: Is Dubai losing steam?

The physical window was much more active on the sellside today than recent sessions; the sellers were in the driving seat. Chevron was whacking bids left, right and centre. Reliance and Exxon also featured heavily on the sellside, hitting bids from the likes of Totsa and Mitsui, as usual. This culminated in Reliance declaring a cargo of Upper Zakum to Mitsui, while Repsol nominated one of the same to Totsa for their own convergence. But premiums are coming in, back down to $1.55/bbl. It seems like Dubai is starting to deflate. In paper markets, prompt structures have weakened over the month: the Nov/Dec swaps spread has fallen from 60c on the 7 October to 28c today.

The Officials: Brent boosted… by nothing

Up, up, up it goes! Brent flat price climbed all day, with major surges in the late morning and then in the afternoon. It
kept on rallying beyond $76/bbl after the window. A pedal to the metal kind of day sent Brent to a close at $75.94/bbl.
A $3 rally over two days, but why? What’s changed? Wishy washy geopolitical fears haven’t seen anything to send
prices skyward. No great economic reversal to boost demand optimism. But maybe ‘He’ knows. He always knows.

Onyx Alpha: The Beast in the East

Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in distillates, naphtha and LPG swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.

The Officials: Markets twitch into life post-window

Conflict is the gold dust on oil markets. $75.00 market here we are! Post window Brent markets rose up to $75.14/bbl.
After a softish close in Singapore, the rumour mill got going about Netanyahu meeting his military leaders this evening.
Pardon us, but Mr. N thought he was a hands-on man, who meets with them every day. Never mind, Brent duly
responded and showered money to all the longs after trading at nearly $73.50/bbl in the morning. Shorts are an easy
market in the period preceding whatever the Israelis want to do. We remain of the thinking that any action will be very limited in nature as the Election is soon and Kamala’s job is on the line.

The Officials: Can futures keep Trumping physical?

As the US elections peek over the horizon and Trump serves up Maccies fries, the oil markets trudge on. We were on tenterhooks awaiting the window this afternoon after last week’s dramatic display of collapsing diffs as the Dated Donkey got hammered below the ground. Today’s window was offered, but above the zero line and no bidders played ball. Glencore offered two Forties cargoes: for Nov 10-12 at Dated +10c and for Nov 13-15 at +20c, but didn’t find any takers. Phillips was the other player offering, bringing a mid-Nov Midland at Dated +$1.60 to the table. The futures-physical dislocation remains, but may be closing in. Physical diffs are around flat, while Brent futures front spreads weakened from 40c on Friday to 32c today.

CFTC Weekly: Bulls On A Tightrope

In the week ending 15 Oct, Brent and WTI futures saw increasingly choppy price movements, although both contracts concluded the week softer than where they started. Combined Brent and WTI managed-by-money positioning showed a 41.6mb (-9.8%) decline in long positioning w/w alongside the removal of 1.2mb (-0.8%) of short positions. In addition, producers/merchants liquidated 9.4mb (-0.70%) and 36.8mb (-2.30%) from their Brent and WTI longs and shorts, respectively.

Futures Report: Fading Geopolitical Risk

The Brent futures complex sharply retraced lower last week as the geopolitical risk premia faded on the prospect that Israel’s retaliation strike against Iran will not be targeted towards its oil or nuclear facilities. The week ending 14 Oct saw Brent have its largest weekly decline since the week ending 6 Sep. Price action in the Dec’24 contract rapidly fell by $3 overnight on 15 Oct from around $77.50/bbl to $74.50/bbl following the release of the Washington Post article before stabilising and trading rangebound between $74-75/bbl.

The Officials: Quick, plug the leaks!

Flat price is in a funk, shimmying and sliding but going nowhere. The Iron Dome has been referred to as the Iron Colander following Iran’s strikes against Israel and it seems like air defences aren’t the only leaky thing in Israel. A leaked document appeared to illustrate Israel’s preparations for a retaliatory strike against Iran. The mole or tongue wagging source has not yet been identified, but don’t worry, the US is on the case. The Israeli military will have to go back to the drawing board and rework their plans. Despite this leak suggesting escalation is probable and maybe even imminent, Brent flat price did little at this morning’s open, though it rose steadily from around $73/bbl towards the $74/bbl handle by 10:45 BST. And another day, another ceasefire effort. The US envoy Amos Hochstein will reportedly hold talks with Lebanese officials today, aiming to arrange a ceasefire… again.