Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) such as ethane, propane and butane are used in petrochemicals, transportation, and residential heating.
NGLs play a crucial role in providing clean-burning fuel for heating and cooking in homes and businesses worldwide.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent has recovered from sub-$70/bbl, and there has been a sigh of relief in many markets. But are we out of the woods yet?
The oil market saw a full capitulation this week as Brent futures fell below $70/bbl for the first time since December 2021. Gasoil continues to struggle, while gasoline found a wind of strength off the back of Hurricane Francine. Even though trading volumes are down with key traders enjoy the APPEC festivities, the show in oil swaps must go on.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic reversal in the North Sea market, with the physical window seeing substantial selling on 3 Sep due to a variety of players offering WTI Midland.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, the North Sea and VLSFO have been among the few bright spots in the oil swaps market.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent Futures is not the only contract that is capitulating this week as European gasoline falls at an even faster rate. Meanwhile, the Sing 0.5% marine fuel complex has been one of the few bright spots in the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Whilst the Oct’24 Brent futures contract recovered back to the $80/bbl level, headwinds remain abound. Freight prices are in freefall, its impact reverberating across the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead.
Commitment of Traders is a unique report leveraging Onyx proprietary data and methodologies to provide unique speculative market positioning data and flows. Designed for paper traders and risk managers, the report generates actionable insights and provides transparency into an opaque market.
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $79/bbl and an unexpectedly large 3.44mb draw in US gasoline inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $81/bbl and an unexpectedly large 5.57mb draw in US gasoline inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise above $87/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
As Brent lingers around the $85/bbl, we’ve seen few large moves. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches the week ahead.
We’ve seen the August Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl, where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $82/bbl and a large, unexpected build in US crude inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price plummet below $77/bbl and the 380 E/W rally again, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen Jul Brent Futures touch $85/bbl and the 380 E/W finally peaked, where will markets head this week?
We continue to see chronic weakness in Dated Brent which may exacerbate with an EIA-announced build in US crude inventories and wonder, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen chronic weakness in North Sea crude and flat IEA and OPEC forecasts, where will markets head this week?
There’s been a 1.4mbbls draw in crude and weak refinery margins, where will markets head this week?
With a 7.2mbbls build in crude and weak refinery margins, in which direction are markets flowing this week?
A recovery in fuel and naphtha, whilst gasoline runs out of steam. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
As players remain uncertain about wartime risk premia impacting the futures, the volatility appears to have hit oil products in varied ways. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent strengthened to above the $90/bbl mark, products felt the heat. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As the market reacts to a bullish Brent reaching its highest value since October 2023, see all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Red Sea tensions re-intensify and Ukraine launch a wave of drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, potential value opens up across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As we leave February in the past and April rolls to the prompt, opportunities are arising across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Amid Middle Eastern tensions getting more priced in day on day, the possibility for reversals across the barrel could be on the horizon? See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Amid a still-raging conflict and prompt oil in high demand, crude technical indicators were seen in overbought territory, but will the contracts hold strength in the near future? See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
This afternoon, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed gradual upward movement, trading at $78.65/bbl at 12:00 BST and inching up to $79.04/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). We saw some volatility in price action, with an intraday high of $79.47/bbl just before 16:00 BST, amid further conflict in Lebanon and the release of a Platts survey showing an overall decline in OPEC+ oil production. In the news today, the United Nations said that two of its peacekeepers were injured by explosions near its Naqoura headquarters in southern Lebanon, prompting criticism of Israel from European governments such as Germany and France, according to Bloomberg. In other news, the Platts OPEC+ survey has shown a 500kb/d drop in oil production for September, owing to the halt in Libyan output and improved compliance from Iraq. Lastly, Russia’s Omsk refinery, the country’s largest by production volumes, has increased crude processing by 4% y/y from January to September, according to the state-owned giant Gazprom. The company claims the Omsk refinery processed almost 426kb/d of oil throughout 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
This week, the market remained about as relaxed as a bull on Redbull. A few drowsy comments from “Sleepy Joe” were enough to get everyone on edge as we hit the one-year mark since the October 7th Hamas attacks. But the real action came when investors started sweating over China, thanks to the NDRC. Turns out, unless people start swiping those credit cards like it’s Black Friday, all that monetary stimulus is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Speaking of storms, the EIA data offered a bit of good news for the bulls. Crude stocks didn’t pile up as high as expected, and commercial oil stockpiles dropped faster than my motivation on a Monday—over 8mb gone, with gasoline inventories taking a 6.3mb plunge. Refiners were busy, cranking out 21.2mb/d of products, with 9.7 million of that being gasoline. It seems U.S. demand is chugging along, possibly boosted by some good old hurricane panic-buying.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
Propane flat price contracts witnessed significant volatility this fortnight, with the Nov’24 US Mont Belvieu TET (LST) propane contract strengthening from under 75c/gal on 26 Sep to just shy of 84c/gal on 07 Oct. This support likely stemmed from a stronger Brent and WTI futures complex amid the worsening of Israeli-Iranian relations, triggering fears of a regional escalation of the war in Gaza.
After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.
The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). T
Amid choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened a touch from $79.65/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.43/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). After briefly trading above the $80/bbl level yesterday, the contract saw less support alongside increasing Libyan output and changing risk of regional escalation of war in the Middle East, as traders continue to wait for Israel’s potential retaliation on Iran. However, downside pressure was limited by production shut-ins in the US Gulf Coast caused by Hurricane Milton. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi has warned Israel against any potential attack on Iranian infrastructure, stating that any Israeli incursion would be met with a stronger retaliation. In other news, Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 storm, is expected to make landfall tomorrow in the Tampa Bay area of Florida. Chevron has shut in its Blind Faith platform in response, whilst the rest of its Gulf of Mexico assets remain operational. Finally, China has said that is ‘fully confident’ in reaching its annual growth target of 5%, according to Reuters. Zheng Shanjie, the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission announced a government plan to issue $28.3 billion in advance budget spending from next year, however, to the disappointment of investors seeking a greater fiscal stimulus. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $2.25/bbl, respectively.
The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). T
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract firmed up this morning, strengthening from $77.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.85/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement amid US strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, alongside a Hamas missile attack on Tel Aviv this morning, on the 7 October anniversary of the Hamas attack. In the news today, after Israel hit Beirut on Sunday with the heaviest night of airstrikes yet, Hamas has fired missiles past Israeli defences into Tel Aviv, triggering air raid sirens according to Reuters. In addition, Hezbollah rockets have targeted a military base south of Haifa, Israel’s third largest city, reportedly wounding eight people. In other news, on Friday, the US military said it carried out 15 strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Central Command, which oversees US forces in the Middle East, said the attacks were aimed at limiting Houthi offensive capabilities, as per Reuters. Finally, the explosion of an oil tanker near the international airport of Karachi, Pakistan, has been determined to be a terrorist act according to the regional internal affairs minister. A Chinese Embassy statement has said that a convoy carrying Chinese staff of the local Port Qasim Electric Power Company was engulfed in the blast, believed to have killed two workers from China. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon after initial weakness, amid Iran’s threat to target Israeli gas infrastructure should conflict erupt. The Dec’24 contract traded at $78.63/bbl at 12:00 BST and dipped to $77.84/bbl around 13:20 BST, before strengthening to $78.66/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Prices have been volatile throughout the afternoon following Iran’s call for a Gaza/Lebanon ceasefire and the release of US NFP data at 13:30 BST, showing a 245k increase in jobs for September, significantly higher than expected. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi in Beirut said that the Iran will support a ceasefire on the condition it is backed by Hezbollah and synchronized with an end to conflict in the Gaza Strip. Concerns are mounting over the feasibility of this ceasefire, as Israel hits Beirut today with one of its heaviest airstrikes yet. In other news, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant Petrobras is redeveloping the Tupi oil field, one of the largest deep-water reserves globally currently producing over 760kb/d. Petrobras has outlined plans to enhance extraction rates at Tupi and is considering adding another production unit, estimated to cost $4 billion to install. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.63/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strong support this morning, trading at $77.50/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to around $78.94 at 11:45 BST (time of writing). Price action began moving upward shortly after 08:00 BST amid Israeli airstrikes in Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and growing anticipation of a potential attack by Israel on Iranian oil infrastructure. In the news today, Iran’s empty oil tankers previously sitting at an anchorage area near Kharg Island have now left, as per ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Libya has restarted oil production as the two rival government factions reached an agreement on the governorship of the Central Bank. According to Reuters, Libyan output was 1.2mb/d before the production halt in late August at the Sharara, El Feel, and Essider oilfields. Finally, Spain’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have reached 2 million tons in total this year, just shy of the 2.1 million ton 15-year high. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $2.43/bbl, respectively.
Brent briefly dipped back into the infamous $60/bbl handle on Monday, only to rebound sharply over $75/bbl as sentiment took a volte-face on fears of a potential oil supply disruption stemming from the regional escalation of the war in the Middle East.
Dec’24 Brent futures flat price rallied this afternoon, from $75.65/bbl at 14:00 BST to over $77.00/bbl at around 17:00 BST, currently at $77.15/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Prices jumped this afternoon as President Biden was asked if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities and responded: “We’re discussing that”. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told The Guardian that while the absence of a significant oil price surge has been helpful for monetary policy, the situation in the Middle East must be closely monitored as it could worsen. Reflecting on past oil crises like in the 1970s, he claimed there seems to be a strong commitment in the region to maintain market stability. Libya is resuming oil production after a month-long halt due to political conflict, Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq told Bloomberg. This will add a maximum of 260kb/d. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 rose to 225k, surpassing the expected 221k. This is ahead of tomorrow’s September jobs report. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures flat price this morning climbed from $74.75/bbl at 07:00 BST up to $75.34/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing), with a low of $74.33/bbl at 10:05 BST and high of $75.40/bbl at 10:40 BST. This upward price action could in part be influenced by widening of conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, the Israeli Air Force has struck a military depot in Syria in the vicinity of Russia’s Khmeimim air base. The operation reportedly was aimed at disrupting shipments of weaponry intended to be delivered to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 countries have warned Israel against strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In other news, maintenance repairs for Kazakhstan’s 400kb/d Kashagan refinery have been postponed and are now due to start 7 Oct and last 30 days, the energy ministry has said to Reuters. Finally, Total has shut an unspecified unit at its 240kb/d Gonfreville refinery for maintenance. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.37/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures flat price saw a sell-off this afternoon, trading at $75.84/bbl at 12:00 BST and steadily descending to $73.81/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). The downward price action came amid the release of EIA data today at 15:30 BST for the week ending 27 Sep, which showed that US crude oil inventories increased by around 3.89mb, significantly higher than the expected draw of 1.3mb. In the news today, Israel suffered the heaviest losses on the Lebanon front in the past year, according to Reuters, with eight Israeli soldiers killed today in south Lebanon and reportedly three Israeli Merkava tanks destroyed by Hezbollah. In other news, the OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) left the current output cut policy unchanged and emphasised the need for compliance from OPEC+ members with planned cuts. Finally, 45,000 US longshoremen working at US East and Gulf Coast ports have been backed by the White House, with Biden pressing port employers to offer a ‘strong and fair’ contract, as per Reuters. Despite this, there are currently no negotiation talks scheduled between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw flat price steadily climbing this morning, trading at $74.80/bbl at 07:00 BST and hitting $75.73/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israel’s foreign ministry has barred UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres from entering the country due to his alleged failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s attack on Israel, according to Reuters. Whilst anticipation of a retaliatory attack against Iran mounts, Israel has increased military presence in Lebanon, with regular infantry and armoured units joining ground operations. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has stated that crude prices could drop to as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not conform to agreed-upon production limits. Finally, despite pressure from the China, Malaysia has reportedly stepped up oil exploration in the South China Sea, which is estimated to contain 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 37% of the world’s maritime crude, as per data by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.49/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon, trading at $71.42/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.40/bbl handles at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Prices have surged amid reports of Iran’s imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel. In the news today, earlier this afternoon White House officials warned that the US has “indications” of Iran launching an attack and that they are actively supporting preparations to defend Israel, according to Reuters. In other news, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have damaged two commercial vessels in the Red Sea near Al Hodeidah, Yemen earlier today. One of the ships is believed to be the Panama-flagged Cordelia Moon, which was returning to the Mediterranean after delivering Russian oil to India, as per ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Finally, Russia is set to increase oil exports via its western ports to 2.2mb/d in October, rising 3% m/m, sources close to Reuters stated. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract dipped this morning from $71.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to a touch below $70.00/bbl at 10:10 BST, before strengthening and finding support at $71.24/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). This volatile price action comes as Israel launched their ground invasion of southern Lebanon on Monday night. In the news today, Israeli paratroopers and commandos have begun targeting Hezbollah strongholds on the ground. According to Reuters, Israel’s military has stated that the raids will be focused along the border and the incursion does not constitute a war against the Lebanese people. In other news, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has said that 6 mb of crude oil have been bought for the SPR, due to be delivered in quantities of 1.5 mb per month from February through to May 2025. The DOE has bought these barrels at an average price of $68.56/bbl from a combination of Exxon, Shell, and Macquarie. Finally, Germany’s preliminary CPI figures reported inflation has fallen to 1.6% y/y for September, slightly lower than the expected 1.7% and the slowest pace of price growth in over three years. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.
After weakness this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon. Trading a touch above of $71.00/bbl at 12:35 BST, flat price tested the $71.80/bbl resistance level multiple times before finally breaking through around 15:45 BST and reaching $72.25/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). This price action may reflect the increased risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East as Israel threatens a ground invasion in Lebanon. In the news, Libya’s halted oil production is expected to gradually resume on 1 Oct, according to Italian news agency Agenzia Nova. In other news, imports of Iranian crude into China are set to reach a record high of 1.79mb/d for the month of September, according to ship-tracking data by Kpler. Finally, amid a dispute dating back to the 1970s over oil-rich islands in the Gulf of Guinea, a hearing has begun between OPEC members Gabon and Equatorial Guinea at the International Court of Justice to settle maritime boundaries and sovereignty. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.28/bbl and $0.72/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures showed weak upside momentum on Monday, following the confirmation over the weekend of the killing of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Initial strength in the morning took the contract to a high of $72.75/bbl shortly before 07:00 BST, where a correction set in and price decreased to $71.54/bbl at 11:10 BST (time of writing). Despite rising tensions in the Middle East, price action has highlighted that bearish sentiment persists. In the news today, Israel has issued a statement claiming to have bombed Houthi targets in Yemen’s port of Hodeidah on Sunday, killing at least 4 and wounding 29. Meanwhile, Israel has kept up their assault on Lebanon following yesterday’s latest airstrike, resulting in at least 105 casualties according to Lebanon’s health ministry. IDF tanks have now gathered on the Lebanon border as fears over a ground invasion mount. In other news, talks between the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) over wage issues in US East and Gulf Coast ports are deadlocked, now reaching the 30 Sep deadline for a contract deal. The strike, which is due to begin on 1 Oct, would be the first coastwide ILA strike since 1977. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.25/bbl and $0.58/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract was initially rangebound between $71.00 and $71.50/bbl before dipping to a low of $70.93/bbl around 14:45 BST and strengthening shortly after up to around the $72.00/bbl level at 17:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, speaking to world leaders at the UN General Assembly in New York, has vowed the IDF will continue its bombardment of Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and decisively announced there would be no immediate truce. Netanyahu dedicated part of his speech to threatening Iran, stating “there is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach”. In other news, labour strikes at major East and Gulf Coast ports in the US are due to start early next week, with a total of 14 ports and some 25,000 workers involve, according to the United States Maritime Alliance. Finally, Indian refiners are expected to raise their total refining capacity by up to 800 kb/d by the end of the fiscal 2030 year, boosting their base capacity up to 5.92 mb/d, according to data from Crisil Ratings. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.32/bbl and $0.74/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed choppy price action throughout this morning, trading at $70.87/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to a high of $71.52/bbl at 09:25 BST, before falling to $71.23/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). This may have been reacting to expectations of increasing output from Libya and an OPEC+ December oil output hike. In the news today, Colombia is set to announce a $40 billion investment plan to shift away from oil to “nature-based climate solutions”, the country’s environment minister, Susana Muhamad, said. In other news, China’s central bank has lowered interest rates today as more fiscal measures are expected to be announced before 1 Oct. In order to ease the property crisis, megacities Shenzhen and Shanghai are planning to lift restrictions on the number of homes that Chinese can buy, according to Reuters. Finally, crude output by Mexican state-owned Pemex fell 6% y/y in August down to 1.77mb/d, with the Olmeca refinery’s output far below targets set by their CEO Octavio Romero. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.33/bbl and $0.69/bbl, respectively.
The Fed has initiated the rate easing cycle, lowering its key overnight borrowing rate by 50 bps. To be sure, it was an aggressive start and underscored the Fed’s concerns surrounding employment, in contrast to its sanguine views on inflation. The dot plot points to another 50bp of cuts by year-end, 100bp in 2025, and 50Oil traders in London woke up on 26 Sep to the Dec ’24 Brent futures plummeting below $71/bbl overnight after hitting a zenith of $75/bbl on 24 Sep. Amid these sad price movements, the all-new debate gripping the oil market is whether or not OPEC+ ever decided on a $100/bbl price target for Brent. Officially, they did not.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract began the afternoon weaker, falling to $70.40/bbl at 14:50 BST. While this level brought in support for the soon-to-be-prompt contract, which climbed to $71.60/bbl as of 17:00 BST, it ultimately softened to $71.00/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
After selling-off overnight, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract was on a steady upward trend this morning, trading at $71.30/bbl at 07:00 BST and rising to $71.76/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Chinese leaders at a Politburo meeting have pledged to deploy “necessary fiscal spending” to meet China’s 2024 growth target of 5%, in response to concerns about the effectiveness of the government stimulus. According to Reuters, the September meeting is not typically a forum for macroeconomic discussion, signalling growing anxiety over slowing growth in the country. In other news, a Thursday morning statement from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office stated that reports of a ceasefire with Hezbollah are incorrect, and refer to “an American-French proposal, to which the Prime Minister did not even respond”. In the meantime, the Prime Minister has instructed the IDF to continue fighting in full force. Finally, Saudi Arabia has scrapped its unofficial $100/bbl oil price target as it prepares to increase output, according to Financial Times. With OPEC+ planning to boost output towards the start of 2025, Saudi Arabia seeks to defend its market share by increasing production. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.60/bbl, respectively.
US Mont Belvieu TET propane (LST propane) strengthened this fortnight, on a flat price basis, with the Oct’24 contract climbing from 68.25c/gal on 11 Sep to 73.50c/gal on 24 Sep
After a relatively stable morning, price action in the Nov’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness and volatility this afternoon. Initially oscillating between high $73 and $74/bbl handles from 12:00 to 17:00 BST, price action then plummeted at 17:18 BST by 58c down to $73.23/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, EIA data released at 15:30 BST today for the week ending 20 Sep showed that US crude oil inventories fell by 4.47 mb, or more than expected and about commensurate with yesterday’s API figure. The decline was greater than the draw in the previous week, when crude stocks fell by 1.6 mb. In other news, according to Reuters, economists at Standard Chartered and HSBC have doubted the efficacy of the Chinese central bank’s stimulus package, claiming that China’s new monetary policies fail to target persistently weak consumer demand. Finally, Libyan factions have reached a preliminary agreement to appoint a governor and deputy governor of the Central Bank, as per Bloomberg, potentially marking the first step towards Libyan crude oil exports increasing. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.59/bbl and $1.29/bbl, respectively.
The Nov’24 Brent futures flat price was volatile this morning, trading at $74.90/bbl at 07:00 BST and reaching a high of $75.25/bbl at 10:00 BST before falling to $74.63/bbl around 11:30 BST (time of writing). Price has fluctuated in light of changing weather conditions in the US Gulf Coast, geopolitical risk in the Middle East, and expectations of a decline in US crude oil inventories ahead of EIA data releasing today at 15:30 BST. In the news, Storm Helene could develop into a Category 3 hurricane by the end of today, according to the US National Hurricane Center. The storm is reported to be moving east with oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico likely to avoid any damage, however, 16% of crude oil production has been suspended as a precaution, amounting to 284kb/d, as per data by Reuters. In other news, US East Coast ports, including the port of New York and New Jersey, are bracing for the potential longshoremen’s strike that could start 1 Oct. The ports have put operational plans in place to ensure cargoes are collected before the 30 Sep deadline and minimize disruption. Finally, Israeli public broadcaster Kan has reported that the Israeli army is preparing for a possible ground operation in Lebanon, with Defence Minister Yoav Gallant seen meeting soldiers training for a ground invasion scenario. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.64/bbl and $1.60/bbl, respectively.
After this morning’s rally on the back of substantial monetary policy easing announcements in China, the Nov’24 Brent futures contract dipped over the course of this afternoon, trading at $75.51/bbl at 12:00 BST and declining to $74.90/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Price action has been volatile amid escalation of conflict in Lebanon and another hurricane threatening the US Gulf Coast. In the news today, as the Libyan political standoff continues to stall crude oil output, Libya’s exports have crashed to 400kb/d for this month compared to 1mb/d in August, according to ship-tracking data compiled by Reuters. Analytics from Kpler showed that most of these cargoes were headed to Italy and Greece, with some travelling to China and Canada. In other news, the US State Department and Global Affairs Canada are in negotiations over the maritime boundaries of the Beaufort Sea, according to Bloomberg. Overlapping between the Yukon, Northwest Territories, and the north of Alaska, the Beaufort Sea is thought to contain a potentially oil-rich seabed and is of particular importance as China and Russia seek to explore more resources and trade routes in the Arctic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.68/bbl and $1.82/bbl, respectively.
Nov’24 Brent futures contract found strong support this morning, trading at $74.70/bbl at 07:00 BST and reaching $75.86/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian declared that he does not want to enter a full-blown conflict with Israel, warning of its “irreversible” consequences. Attending the UN General Assembly in New York, Pezeshkian said “we do not wish to be the cause of instability in the Middle East”. In other news, US Gulf Coast producers including BP and Chevron have begun evacuating oil platforms on the back of tropical storm Helene, expected to progress into a major hurricane with winds of up to 155 mph by Thursday. Finally, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has unveiled its biggest stimulus since the COVID-19 pandemic to set the country on track towards the government’s 5% growth target for this year. This plan includes PBOC cutting banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 50 bps and freeing up $142.21 billion for lending, as per data by Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.75/bbl and $1.95/bbl, respectively.
After sideways price action this afternoon, Nov’24 Brent futures contract gradually fell from $74.69/bbl at 12:00 BST down to $73.16/bbl at 17:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, China’s Russian oil imports have jumped 25.6% m/m in August as Beijing took advantage of cheaper crude prices, according to data from the Chinese General Customs Administration. Meanwhile, Chinese crude imports from Iraq rose by 43.1% m/m in August and imports from Saudi Arabia fell by 17%, as per data compiled by Russian news agency Interfax. In other news, after Israel’s defence minister announced this morning that attacks against Lebanon would escalate, aerial strikes have now killed at least 182 people, making it the deadliest day in nearly a year of conflict between Hezbollah and Israel. As the conflict worsens, the potential for Iran to become more involved in backing Hezbollah has stoked concerns of Iranian oil exports being disrupted. Finally, possible strikes at the end of the month by dockworkers at US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports could cause major delays in shipments. According to an Oxford Economics report, the strike could involve up to 45,000 workers at ports that account for roughly 60% of US shipping traffic. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.69/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.
Nov’24 Brent futures contract was volatile this morning, trading at $75.03/bbl at 07:00 BST and dipping down to a low of $74.25/bbl at 09:45 BST, before climbing up to $74.64/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israel has unleashed it most widespread wave of airstrikes on Lebanon, and warned citizens to evacuate areas near Hezbollah posts, according to Reuters. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said today that the country is “deepening our attacks in Lebanon” and will continue until “we achieve our goal to return the northern residents safely to their homes”. In other news, Shell is preparing to shut in oil production at two of its platforms in the US Gulf of Mexico, Stones and Appomattox, as a tropical disturbance may cause a potential impact on their operations. Meanwhile, a port strike in the US looms on the horizon, threatening a potential supply chain crisis and increasing prices. Finally, China’s newest 400kb/d refiner Yulong has started up their crude unit and Libyan oil exports have rebounded above 700kb/d, according to Bloomberg, despite the ban on exports by Libya’s eastern government. At the time of writing, the front month (Nov/Dec’24) and six-month (Nov/May’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.77/bbl and $1.92/bbl, respectively.
