Naphtha serves as a versatile feedstock for the petrochemical industry, crucial in producing plastics, synthetic fibers, and various chemicals that contribute significantly to manufacturing and industrial processes.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent has recovered from sub-$70/bbl, and there has been a sigh of relief in many markets. But are we out of the woods yet?
The oil market saw a full capitulation this week as Brent futures fell below $70/bbl for the first time since December 2021. Gasoil continues to struggle, while gasoline found a wind of strength off the back of Hurricane Francine. Even though trading volumes are down with key traders enjoy the APPEC festivities, the show in oil swaps must go on.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, there has been a dramatic reversal in the North Sea market, with the physical window seeing substantial selling on 3 Sep due to a variety of players offering WTI Midland.
Polarising strength in European gasoline and naphtha continues to define lightends. Meanwhile, the North Sea and VLSFO have been among the few bright spots in the oil swaps market.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Brent Futures is not the only contract that is capitulating this week as European gasoline falls at an even faster rate. Meanwhile, the Sing 0.5% marine fuel complex has been one of the few bright spots in the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Whilst the Oct’24 Brent futures contract recovered back to the $80/bbl level, headwinds remain abound. Freight prices are in freefall, its impact reverberating across the oil swaps market. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead.
Commitment of Traders is a unique report leveraging Onyx proprietary data and methodologies to provide unique speculative market positioning data and flows. Designed for paper traders and risk managers, the report generates actionable insights and provides transparency into an opaque market.
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $79/bbl and an unexpectedly large 3.44mb draw in US gasoline inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $81/bbl and an unexpectedly large 5.57mb draw in US gasoline inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise above $87/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
As Brent lingers around the $85/bbl, we’ve seen few large moves. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches the week ahead.
We’ve seen the August Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl, where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $82/bbl and a large, unexpected build in US crude inventories, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price plummet below $77/bbl and the 380 E/W rally again, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen Jul Brent Futures touch $85/bbl and the 380 E/W finally peaked, where will markets head this week?
We continue to see chronic weakness in Dated Brent which may exacerbate with an EIA-announced build in US crude inventories and wonder, where will markets head this week?
We’ve seen chronic weakness in North Sea crude and flat IEA and OPEC forecasts, where will markets head this week?
There’s been a 1.4mbbls draw in crude and weak refinery margins, where will markets head this week?
With a 7.2mbbls build in crude and weak refinery margins, in which direction are markets flowing this week?
A recovery in fuel and naphtha, whilst gasoline runs out of steam. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
As players remain uncertain about wartime risk premia impacting the futures, the volatility appears to have hit oil products in varied ways. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent strengthened to above the $90/bbl mark, products felt the heat. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead.
As the market reacts to a bullish Brent reaching its highest value since October 2023, see all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As Red Sea tensions re-intensify and Ukraine launch a wave of drone attacks on Russian infrastructure, potential value opens up across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
As we leave February in the past and April rolls to the prompt, opportunities are arising across the barrel. See all the updates in this week’s Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead.
Despite the geopolitical risk premia buoying up the naphtha E/W, we recommended shorting the Mar E/W in our Feb 13 naphtha report. Find out more about the logic behind this trade in our new case study.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China reduced its crude imports from major suppliers in the month of September. GACC data showed China’s daily crude imports from Russia, Iraq, and Brazil fell m/m by 4.52%, 16.00%, and 48.85%, respectively. However, crude imports from Saudi Arabia increased to 1.81mb/d, up 44.92% m/m since August. In other news, South Sudan’s crude oil exports are set to resume as a blockage in a northern pipeline via Sudan has been cleared. As per Bloomberg, the pipeline funnelled more than 150kb/d to Port Sudan prior to its breakdown in February this year. Finally, the Indian oil minister Hardeep Singh Puri stated that India’s petrochemical sector is projected to receive investments worth $87 billion over the next decade to meet rising demand. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures weakened this afternoon, from over $74.50/bbl at 13:20 BST to $72.55/bbl at 16:25 BS, recovering $73.25/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Total is planning a shutdown of its largest European refinery, in Antwerp, in 2025. This facility, which is the company’s biggest oil-processing plant in Europe with a capacity of around 340kb/d, will undergo maintenance starting in September. The scheduled work will focus on the crude processing units and one of the refinery’s two fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). China’s diesel exports fell to 350kt in September, the lowest since June 2023, due to limited shipment quotas and near break-even margins. This marks a 71% drop from the same month last year, with total petroleum exports reaching just 730kt, the lowest since April. China’s new home prices in September saw their steepest decline since May 2015, dropping 5.8% year-on-year, according to official data. This follows a 5.3% decrease in August, despite efforts to revive the property sector. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.43/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading from $74.76/bbl at 07:00 BST and declining to $74.06/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Prices lacked strength this morning amid reports of Chinese oil refining falling to a three-month low of 58.7 million tons, a reduction of 1.6% y/y, according to Bloomberg. In the news today, Israeli authorities have released a drone video allegedly displaying Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dying in the ruins of building in southern Gaza, as per Reuters. Following Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised to continue conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. In other news, Chevron and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) have made a new oil discovery in the Niger Delta, according to S&P Global. Chevron has yet to offer information on potential production targets or a timeline for facility operations. Finally, Russian oil producer Lukoil stated that the company had no plans to buy back shares from foreign investors after requesting permission from the government to buy back 25% last year, Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister Alexei Moiseev said. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.43/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures fell from close to $80.00/bbl to $74.00/bbl this week as the geopolitical risk premium was priced-out and back in at a rate that puts no one’s mind to rest. As soon as part of the premium has been chipped out of the price, mid to low-70s were not far behind, and they must feel at home. Volatility has dropped as $74.00/bbl has proven less mean-reverting and more mean-unwavering, with Dec’24 trading between $73.50/bbl and $75.00/bbl for a few days. The Washington Post seems confident in Iran’s energy security, although this was a bit undermined by Netanyahu purposefully undermining it and reminding the international community that they will act however they feel ‘necessary’. Chinese news, positive or negative, has taken a breather this week. The geopolitical tension is with all hopes of de-escalating, leaving little to distract from the supply/demand that the market has been happy to pin at mid-70s.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened amid choppy price action from $74.39/bbl at 07:00 BST to $74.35/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). Price action showed volatility throughout the morning while Iran issued a warning to Israel against retaliation for Iran’s 01 Oct missile attack. In the news today, the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hossein Salami, stated in a televised speech: “if you (Israel) commit any aggression against any point, we will painfully attack the same point of yours”. Meanwhile, Israel has intensified strikes on Eastern Lebanon, with the town of Al-Khiam hit by seven airstrikes in less than 10 minutes last night, according to the state-affiliated National News Agency. In other news, Oman’s state-owned upstream oil and gas operator, OQ Exploration and Production Company (OQEP), raised over $2 billion from its IPO on the Muscat Stock Exchange. According to Bloomberg, the OQEP deal is the biggest Gulf IPO since the $2.5 billion share sale of Adnoc in 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.44/bbl and $1.72/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract continued to weaken this morning, falling from $74.80/bbl at 08:25 BST to briefly dropping below $74/bbl at 10:20 BST. While the benchmark crude futures contract found support here, it fell to $73.88/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. In other news, Israeli troops have begun clearing landmines near Golan Heights, signalling a potential expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah for the first time further east along Lebanon’s border, according to Reuters. Finally, Russian refinery maintenance has pushed the country’s oil exports to their highest level in three months. Average oil exports inched up by 7kb/d to 3.33mb/d in the four weeks to 13 Oct, as per data compiled by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.53/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened slightly this afternoon, trading at $77.27/bbl at 12:00 BST and moving up to $77.36/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). Despite a mid-afternoon rally to $78.10/bbl at 14:50 BST, price action saw downward pressure amid OPEC’s cut to their oil demand forecast. In the news today, OPEC, in their Oct’24 monthly oil market report, has reduced their forecast for global oil demand growth from 2.03mb/d to 1.93mb/d for 2024, as per Reuters. Poor Chinese demand accounted for most of this reduction, trimmed down by OPEC from 650kb/d to 580kb/d in the report. In other news, Israeli forces have intensified their strikes on north Gaza, shifting their focus to the city of Jabalia. At least 10 people were killed in an Israeli attack on a food distribution centre in the city, according to Palestinian medics. Meanwhile, in China, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has begun air force, navy, and army drills in the Taiwan Strait. Senior Captain Li Xi of the PLA said this display serves “as a stern warning to separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces”. Finally, Algeria is set to announce a new oil and gas licensing round, in which majors including Exxon, Chevron, Eni, and Sinopec are expected to bid, according to Reuters. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.42/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed weakness throughout the morning, trading at $78.09/bbl at 07:00 BST and falling to just above the $77.00/bbl handle at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Price action has been weak amid a continuing lack of confidence in China’s economic stimulus to combat deflation and increases in Libyan crude output. In the news today, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) stated that Libyan crude production has recovered to 1.3mb/d, reaching levels seen before the political dispute over Libya’s central bank. In other news, the US said it will send US troops to Israel along with an advanced anti-missile system. US President Biden has stated that this decision was meant to “defend Israel”, according to Reuters. US officials have yet to announce how quickly their forces will be deployed. Finally, China’s first ultra-deepwater field, Deep Sea 1, is reported to have produced 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas and 900,000 cubic meters of oil to date, as per Xinhua. This development comes as the China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) seeks to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign hydrocarbons. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.38/bbl and $1.80/bbl, respectively.
This afternoon, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract showed gradual upward movement, trading at $78.65/bbl at 12:00 BST and inching up to $79.04/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). We saw some volatility in price action, with an intraday high of $79.47/bbl just before 16:00 BST, amid further conflict in Lebanon and the release of a Platts survey showing an overall decline in OPEC+ oil production. In the news today, the United Nations said that two of its peacekeepers were injured by explosions near its Naqoura headquarters in southern Lebanon, prompting criticism of Israel from European governments such as Germany and France, according to Bloomberg. In other news, the Platts OPEC+ survey has shown a 500kb/d drop in oil production for September, owing to the halt in Libyan output and improved compliance from Iraq. Lastly, Russia’s Omsk refinery, the country’s largest by production volumes, has increased crude processing by 4% y/y from January to September, according to the state-owned giant Gazprom. The company claims the Omsk refinery processed almost 426kb/d of oil throughout 2023. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $2.28/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
This week, the market remained about as relaxed as a bull on Redbull. A few drowsy comments from “Sleepy Joe” were enough to get everyone on edge as we hit the one-year mark since the October 7th Hamas attacks. But the real action came when investors started sweating over China, thanks to the NDRC. Turns out, unless people start swiping those credit cards like it’s Black Friday, all that monetary stimulus is about as useful as an umbrella in a hurricane. Speaking of storms, the EIA data offered a bit of good news for the bulls. Crude stocks didn’t pile up as high as expected, and commercial oil stockpiles dropped faster than my motivation on a Monday—over 8mb gone, with gasoline inventories taking a 6.3mb plunge. Refiners were busy, cranking out 21.2mb/d of products, with 9.7 million of that being gasoline. It seems U.S. demand is chugging along, possibly boosted by some good old hurricane panic-buying.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw support this morning, trading at $77.13/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to $77.72/bbl around 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid mounting concerns of a potential Israeli strike on Iran and expected supply disruption due to Hurricane Milton. In the news today, following a statement from Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant warning that any retaliation against Iran would be “lethal” and “surprising”, Israel has continued their airstrikes in southern Lebanon today, resulting in the death of 5 emergency workers according to the Lebanese health ministry. In other news, Exxon is planning to increase its crude oil production offshore Guyana by 18kb/d, according to Bloomberg. The increase in output is due to come from Exxon’s Unity platform, whose total capacity will increase to 270kb/d from 250kb/d, on the condition that approval from local authorities has been obtained and necessary risk assessments are complete. Finally, Saudi Aramco is expected to provide 42-43mb of crude supplies to Chinese customers for November-loading, compared to around 44mb for October, as per Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.53/bbl and $2.09/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off further this afternoon, trading at $76.89/bbl at 12:00 BST and weakening to an intraday low of $75.19/bbl at 15:20 BST, before recovering to $76.75/bbl at 17:05 BST (time of writing). Prices initially weakened on Chinese demand concerns but rallied following an EIA stats reading at 15:30 BST, which showed a lower than expected build of 5.8mb compared to yesterday’s API forecast of 1.95mb. In the news today, the ports of Tampa, Manatee, Port Canaveral, and Jacksonville have been shut, according to the US Coast Guard. Commercial ships are restricted from entering the ports and cargo loading operations have been suspended. Meanwhile, Chevron has begun redeploying staff to oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico, including the Blind Faith platform, as they largely avoid the path of Hurricane Milton. In other news, US President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu discussed Israel’s plans for a retaliation on Iran, according to Reuters. The phone call between the two leaders was reportedly their first known chat since August, with Netanyahu promising Iran will face consequences for its missile attack on Israel. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.67/bbl, respectively.
After initial choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract sold off, trading at $77.86/bbl at 07:00 BST and marginally weakening to $77.82/bbl at 11:00 BST, before plummeting to $76.79/bbl just before 11:30 BST (time of writing). Brent prices showed volatility with the EIA slashing their global oil demand growth forecast by 300kb/d to 1.2mb/d, alongside fears of intensifying conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, Hezbollah is targeting Israeli soldiers with artillery near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh, according to Reuters. However, Hezbollah also signalled that it may be open to a ceasefire with Israel, no longer conditional on a simultaneous truce in Gaza. In other news, Hurricane Milton is due to move through the across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in Florida today, with a current wind speed of around 160 mph, according to the US National Hurricane Centre. Due to mass evacuation, at least 21.6% stations in Florida were out of gas at 04:00 BST this morning, as per data from gasoline analyst Patrick De Haan. In addition, around 65kb/d of US Gulf Coast oil output is shut-in, amid port restrictions in preparation for the storm. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.39/bbl and $1.62/bbl, respectively.
The naphtha market has witnessed great strength in the past two weeks, although the front cracks don’t portray this too well due to the strength in crude, which has seen a particular boost from the expansion of conflict in the Middle East. Naphtha has also softened in early October on weaker propane and a more mixed interest in the MOPJ MOC, which was unilaterally bid in the previous week. This may be a correction as we saw significant short-covering flow, which may mean the market needs to balance, and we remain bullish in both regions. The rallying flat price was chased up in NWE, with the M1 NWE naphtha flat price rising to the highest value seen since early July, at $690/mt on 7 Oct. We have seen funds add length at these higher levels, showing prop players happy to add length at NWE flat price at these high levels.
The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). T
Amid choppy price action this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract weakened a touch from $79.65/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.43/bbl at 11:50 BST (time of writing). After briefly trading above the $80/bbl level yesterday, the contract saw less support alongside increasing Libyan output and changing risk of regional escalation of war in the Middle East, as traders continue to wait for Israel’s potential retaliation on Iran. However, downside pressure was limited by production shut-ins in the US Gulf Coast caused by Hurricane Milton. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi has warned Israel against any potential attack on Iranian infrastructure, stating that any Israeli incursion would be met with a stronger retaliation. In other news, Hurricane Milton, now a Category 5 storm, is expected to make landfall tomorrow in the Tampa Bay area of Florida. Chevron has shut in its Blind Faith platform in response, whilst the rest of its Gulf of Mexico assets remain operational. Finally, China has said that is ‘fully confident’ in reaching its annual growth target of 5%, according to Reuters. Zheng Shanjie, the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission announced a government plan to issue $28.3 billion in advance budget spending from next year, however, to the disappointment of investors seeking a greater fiscal stimulus. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.51/bbl and $2.25/bbl, respectively.
The Dec ’24 Brent futures contract witnessed a strong afternoon, recording a 2.5% increase to $80.80/bbl between 14:00 BST and 17:00 BST before softening a little to $80.70/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing). T
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract firmed up this morning, strengthening from $77.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to $79.85/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement amid US strikes on Houthi rebels in Yemen over the weekend, alongside a Hamas missile attack on Tel Aviv this morning, on the 7 October anniversary of the Hamas attack. In the news today, after Israel hit Beirut on Sunday with the heaviest night of airstrikes yet, Hamas has fired missiles past Israeli defences into Tel Aviv, triggering air raid sirens according to Reuters. In addition, Hezbollah rockets have targeted a military base south of Haifa, Israel’s third largest city, reportedly wounding eight people. In other news, on Friday, the US military said it carried out 15 strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Central Command, which oversees US forces in the Middle East, said the attacks were aimed at limiting Houthi offensive capabilities, as per Reuters. Finally, the explosion of an oil tanker near the international airport of Karachi, Pakistan, has been determined to be a terrorist act according to the regional internal affairs minister. A Chinese Embassy statement has said that a convoy carrying Chinese staff of the local Port Qasim Electric Power Company was engulfed in the blast, believed to have killed two workers from China. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.66/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon after initial weakness, amid Iran’s threat to target Israeli gas infrastructure should conflict erupt. The Dec’24 contract traded at $78.63/bbl at 12:00 BST and dipped to $77.84/bbl around 13:20 BST, before strengthening to $78.66/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). Prices have been volatile throughout the afternoon following Iran’s call for a Gaza/Lebanon ceasefire and the release of US NFP data at 13:30 BST, showing a 245k increase in jobs for September, significantly higher than expected. In the news today, Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araqchi in Beirut said that the Iran will support a ceasefire on the condition it is backed by Hezbollah and synchronized with an end to conflict in the Gaza Strip. Concerns are mounting over the feasibility of this ceasefire, as Israel hits Beirut today with one of its heaviest airstrikes yet. In other news, Brazil’s state-owned oil giant Petrobras is redeveloping the Tupi oil field, one of the largest deep-water reserves globally currently producing over 760kb/d. Petrobras has outlined plans to enhance extraction rates at Tupi and is considering adding another production unit, estimated to cost $4 billion to install. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.66/bbl and $2.63/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strong support this morning, trading at $77.50/bbl at 07:00 BST and strengthening to around $78.94 at 11:45 BST (time of writing). Price action began moving upward shortly after 08:00 BST amid Israeli airstrikes in Beirut targeting Hezbollah leadership and growing anticipation of a potential attack by Israel on Iranian oil infrastructure. In the news today, Iran’s empty oil tankers previously sitting at an anchorage area near Kharg Island have now left, as per ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Libya has restarted oil production as the two rival government factions reached an agreement on the governorship of the Central Bank. According to Reuters, Libyan output was 1.2mb/d before the production halt in late August at the Sharara, El Feel, and Essider oilfields. Finally, Spain’s crude oil imports from Venezuela have reached 2 million tons in total this year, just shy of the 2.1 million ton 15-year high. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.65/bbl and $2.43/bbl, respectively.
Brent briefly dipped back into the infamous $60/bbl handle on Monday, only to rebound sharply over $75/bbl as sentiment took a volte-face on fears of a potential oil supply disruption stemming from the regional escalation of the war in the Middle East.
Dec’24 Brent futures flat price rallied this afternoon, from $75.65/bbl at 14:00 BST to over $77.00/bbl at around 17:00 BST, currently at $77.15/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Prices jumped this afternoon as President Biden was asked if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities and responded: “We’re discussing that”. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey told The Guardian that while the absence of a significant oil price surge has been helpful for monetary policy, the situation in the Middle East must be closely monitored as it could worsen. Reflecting on past oil crises like in the 1970s, he claimed there seems to be a strong commitment in the region to maintain market stability. Libya is resuming oil production after a month-long halt due to political conflict, Oil Minister Khalifa Abdul Sadiq told Bloomberg. This will add a maximum of 260kb/d. Initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28 rose to 225k, surpassing the expected 221k. This is ahead of tomorrow’s September jobs report. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.49/bbl and $1.85/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures flat price this morning climbed from $74.75/bbl at 07:00 BST up to $75.34/bbl at 11:20 BST (time of writing), with a low of $74.33/bbl at 10:05 BST and high of $75.40/bbl at 10:40 BST. This upward price action could in part be influenced by widening of conflict in the Middle East. In the news today, the Israeli Air Force has struck a military depot in Syria in the vicinity of Russia’s Khmeimim air base. The operation reportedly was aimed at disrupting shipments of weaponry intended to be delivered to Hezbollah. Meanwhile, the US and other G7 countries have warned Israel against strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. In other news, maintenance repairs for Kazakhstan’s 400kb/d Kashagan refinery have been postponed and are now due to start 7 Oct and last 30 days, the energy ministry has said to Reuters. Finally, Total has shut an unspecified unit at its 240kb/d Gonfreville refinery for maintenance. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.41/bbl and $1.37/bbl, respectively.
Dec’24 Brent futures flat price saw a sell-off this afternoon, trading at $75.84/bbl at 12:00 BST and steadily descending to $73.81/bbl at 17:15 BST (time of writing). The downward price action came amid the release of EIA data today at 15:30 BST for the week ending 27 Sep, which showed that US crude oil inventories increased by around 3.89mb, significantly higher than the expected draw of 1.3mb. In the news today, Israel suffered the heaviest losses on the Lebanon front in the past year, according to Reuters, with eight Israeli soldiers killed today in south Lebanon and reportedly three Israeli Merkava tanks destroyed by Hezbollah. In other news, the OPEC+ joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) left the current output cut policy unchanged and emphasised the need for compliance from OPEC+ members with planned cuts. Finally, 45,000 US longshoremen working at US East and Gulf Coast ports have been backed by the White House, with Biden pressing port employers to offer a ‘strong and fair’ contract, as per Reuters. Despite this, there are currently no negotiation talks scheduled between the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) and the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA). At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.37/bbl and $1.23/bbl, respectively.
Amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw flat price steadily climbing this morning, trading at $74.80/bbl at 07:00 BST and hitting $75.73/bbl at 11:30 BST (time of writing). In the news today, Israel’s foreign ministry has barred UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres from entering the country due to his alleged failure to “unequivocally condemn” Iran’s attack on Israel, according to Reuters. Whilst anticipation of a retaliatory attack against Iran mounts, Israel has increased military presence in Lebanon, with regular infantry and armoured units joining ground operations. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister has stated that crude prices could drop to as low as $50/bbl if OPEC+ members do not conform to agreed-upon production limits. Finally, despite pressure from the China, Malaysia has reportedly stepped up oil exploration in the South China Sea, which is estimated to contain 11 billion barrels of untapped oil and 37% of the world’s maritime crude, as per data by Bloomberg. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.45/bbl and $1.49/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract rallied this afternoon, trading at $71.42/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.40/bbl handles at 17:20 BST (time of writing). Prices have surged amid reports of Iran’s imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel. In the news today, earlier this afternoon White House officials warned that the US has “indications” of Iran launching an attack and that they are actively supporting preparations to defend Israel, according to Reuters. In other news, Iran-aligned Houthi rebels have damaged two commercial vessels in the Red Sea near Al Hodeidah, Yemen earlier today. One of the ships is believed to be the Panama-flagged Cordelia Moon, which was returning to the Mediterranean after delivering Russian oil to India, as per ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Finally, Russia is set to increase oil exports via its western ports to 2.2mb/d in October, rising 3% m/m, sources close to Reuters stated. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract dipped this morning from $71.80/bbl at 07:00 BST to a touch below $70.00/bbl at 10:10 BST, before strengthening and finding support at $71.24/bbl at 11:25 BST (time of writing). This volatile price action comes as Israel launched their ground invasion of southern Lebanon on Monday night. In the news today, Israeli paratroopers and commandos have begun targeting Hezbollah strongholds on the ground. According to Reuters, Israel’s military has stated that the raids will be focused along the border and the incursion does not constitute a war against the Lebanese people. In other news, the US Department of Energy (DOE) has said that 6 mb of crude oil have been bought for the SPR, due to be delivered in quantities of 1.5 mb per month from February through to May 2025. The DOE has bought these barrels at an average price of $68.56/bbl from a combination of Exxon, Shell, and Macquarie. Finally, Germany’s preliminary CPI figures reported inflation has fallen to 1.6% y/y for September, slightly lower than the expected 1.7% and the slowest pace of price growth in over three years. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.27/bbl and $0.71/bbl, respectively.
After weakness this morning, the Dec’24 Brent futures flat price recovered this afternoon. Trading a touch above of $71.00/bbl at 12:35 BST, flat price tested the $71.80/bbl resistance level multiple times before finally breaking through around 15:45 BST and reaching $72.25/bbl at 17:30 BST (time of writing). This price action may reflect the increased risk of conflict escalation in the Middle East as Israel threatens a ground invasion in Lebanon. In the news, Libya’s halted oil production is expected to gradually resume on 1 Oct, according to Italian news agency Agenzia Nova. In other news, imports of Iranian crude into China are set to reach a record high of 1.79mb/d for the month of September, according to ship-tracking data by Kpler. Finally, amid a dispute dating back to the 1970s over oil-rich islands in the Gulf of Guinea, a hearing has begun between OPEC members Gabon and Equatorial Guinea at the International Court of Justice to settle maritime boundaries and sovereignty. At the time of writing, the front month (Dec/Jan’25) and six-month (Dec/Jun’25) Brent futures spreads are at $0.28/bbl and $0.72/bbl, respectively.
