Weekly Oil Inventories Report
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
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This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Brent crude futures saw a relatively rangebound week, with prices in the Jan’25 contract trading between $74 and $76/bbl. Oil’s reaction to the US election result was subdued, where the ‘Trump trade’ was focused on other risk assets, including equities,
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.
Brent crude futures have been trading higher at the start of November, with prices in the Jan’25 contract trading above $74/bbl as of Monday morning. Price action was supported as market participants remain on edge over the conflict in the
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
The Risk Premium Rises (Again) On Monday, we held a bearish view of the Jan’24 Brent futures contract and forecast it to end the week between $68-71/bbl. While the futures contract did weaken to an intraday low of $70.28/bbl on
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The Market Resets Oil prices finally saw a cooling of the geopolitical risk premia tied to fears of an Israeli attack on Iranian oil and nuclear infrastructure, with the soon-to-be-prompt Jan’25 Brent futures contract falling from a close of $75.62/bbl
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Geopolitical risk: down but not out We see a firm Brent complex this week. We forecast Dec’24 Brent futures to end the week in the mid-70s, and we anticipate a ceiling of around $78, and $73/bbl acting as a floor.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks, employing a trend following model that uses price data and realized volatility. The week ending 08 Oct saw CTA positioning pick up significantly, after remaining relatively flat for the previous week. There was a net increase of nearly 106mb in combined futures between 01 and 07 Oct, with the rate of growth in CTA positioning slightly slowing towards the end of the week. In crude, we saw net positioning in Brent increase from -37.2mb to -10mb, the largest jump in CTA net positioning across all futures contracts for the week to 08 Oct. Meanwhile, WTI showed a similar pattern, increasing from around -32.1mb to just under -9.7mb over the week. The product’s net positioning all recovered after falling the previous week, including RBOB with the lowest net positioning, increasing from -43.4mb up to -24.1mb by 08 Oct.
This report compares and contrasts the Bloomberg survey of ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI forecast to their high/low range as well the forward curve
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
The Dec’24 Brent crude futures contract cratered by $3 overnight Monday (14 Oct) from around $77.50/bbl to $74.50/bbl, before trading rangebound for the remainder of the week between $74/bbl and $75/bbl. Prices are set for their biggest weekly decline since
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks, employing a trend following model that uses price data and realized volatility. The week ending 08 Oct saw CTA positioning pick up significantly, after remaining relatively flat for the previous week. There was a net increase of nearly 106mb in combined futures between 01 and 07 Oct, with the rate of growth in CTA positioning slightly slowing towards the end of the week. In crude, we saw net positioning in Brent increase from -37.2mb to -10mb, the largest jump in CTA net positioning across all futures contracts for the week to 08 Oct. Meanwhile, WTI showed a similar pattern, increasing from around -32.1mb to just under -9.7mb over the week. The product’s net positioning all recovered after falling the previous week, including RBOB with the lowest net positioning, increasing from -43.4mb up to -24.1mb by 08 Oct.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 01 Oct saw CTA positioning quite flat in the week, overall seeing a small net increase in the combined futures. Since then, there has been good strength from CTAs, with Brent passing its 50-day average, which likely bouldered their strength. In crude, we saw Brent clock in fall in net positioning, from around -30mb to -37mb on 1 Oct. WTI futures also decreased in the week, from over -25mb on 24 Sep to -33mb on 1 Oct. The largest increase in CTA net positioning in the week to 01 Sep was in ICE Brent. The products’ net positioning all fell weakly, with RBOB seeing RBOB continuing to see the lowest net positioning in tepid market conditions.
Powered by Volatility The Dec’24 Brent futures contract fell below $78.00/bbl on Friday evening but again rallied to $79.65/bbl on 07 Oct at 10:40 BST (time of writing). Volatility remains elevated in the benchmark crude futures contract, leading us to
Turbulent Times Ahead On Monday, we predicted the Dec’24 Brent futures to finish the week between $69-74/bbl amid an oversupplied oil market. However, the futures contract witnessed an injection of bullish sentiment due to growing concerns regarding the regional escalation
In the week ending 05 November, money managers added speculative length and removed shorts in their crude futures positions, mainly in WTI futures. As the Middle Eastern geopolitical risk sentiment deflates, traders redirected their focus towards the OPEC+ decision to roll over their voluntary cuts. However, unlike other risk assets including equities, the crude oil futures market lacked a directional axe ahead of the US election. Money managers added 38.0mb (+10%) of longs and removed 34.0mb (-19%) of shorts. As a result, net positions increased by 72.0mb, marking the first rise in 4 weeks. The long:short ratio is indicated at the 25th percentile for all weeks since 2013, so overall positioning remains relatively short on a historical basis.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning, trading at $73.95/bbl at 07:00 GMT and selling off from $74.05/bbl at 09:10 GMT to $72.90/bbl at 10:20 GMT, inching down further to $72.80/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices sold off as the market continues to react to weakening Chinese oil demand and the declining risk of Hurricane Rafael to US Gulf Coast oil infrastructure. In the news today, Chinese customs data showed that China’s crude imports were at 10.53mb in October, a decrease of 8.7% y/y and down from 11.07mb in September, according to Reuters. In other news, the Syrian state news agency SANA made initial reports of an Israeli attack in Homs’ southern countryside in central Syria, with Israel allegedly targeting an aid gathering centre for displaced Lebanese citizens. Finally, Russia is considering a merger of Rosneft, Gazprom, and Lukoil, as per the Wall Street Journal. This would entail Rosneft absorbing the two smaller companies, resulting in the world’s second-largest oil company after Saudi Aramco and a combined capacity of almost 7.5mb/d. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.24/bbl and $0.84/bbl, respectively.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened further this afternoon, trading at around $74.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT and selling-off from $74.85/bbl at 14:10 GMT down to $73.95/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell as Hurricane Rafael is forecast to weaken and move away from the US Gulf Coast oilfields in coming days, the US National Hurricane Center said. In the news today, Iran’s oil loadings fell from nearly 1.83mb/d in September to 1.48mb/d last month, marking a daily decline of 350kb/d, according to Kpler Senior Analyst Homayoun Falakshahi. The Wall Street Journal reported that US President Trump plans to renew his ‘maximum pressure’ campaign against Iran, drastically increasing sanctions in order to hamper Tehran’s ability to support its proxies in the Middle East. In other news, Iraq’s parliament is due to discuss a new bill on oil exports, a Kurdish MP Sabah Subhi told Kurdistan24. Subhi was optimistic an agreement between Iraq and Kurdistan could be reached, however, highlighted growing security concerns surrounding potential supply disruption in Iraq, claiming any instability would be “catastrophic”. Finally, the Israeli military it is planning to reopen the Kissufim crossing into central Gaza to increase flow of aid into the strip, amid growing pressure from aid agencies. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.30/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.
Trends exist to get bucked. Today the yanks gave up their bullish ways. A tearing dump at 15:00 threatened a line of resistance at $74 and finally sent flat price down into the mid-$73 range and it consolidated to close at $73.57/bbl. The last few days have been divided between weak flat price action in the morning, followed by a rally as the Americans came in for the afternoon stint and sent it back upwards. The North Sea window was hectic but we got some bids! Mitsui offered a Forties for 27-29 Nov at Dated +$0.50, while BP played to both sides for different grades: bidding Sverdrup at -$1.75 over Dated, which Equinor hit, while its offer of a 7-9 Dec Brent at Dated +$0.40 went unanswered. Eni is still trying to shift its Ekofisk, lowering a 25-27 Nov to Dated +$1.10. Gunvor’s offer of a Midland at $1.35 over Dated was lifted by PetroIneos – yet another cargo for the thirsty British-Chinese venture. That makes 6 in November. Remember PetroChina’s been buying lots in Dubai too. Phillips was still offering a Midland, down to Dated +$1.40 but didn’t find any takers.
The Dec’24 TTF rebounded in early November due to winter demand concerns, Norwegian outages, and the looming Ukraine-Russia gas transit expiration. European LNG imports rose for the first time in 10 months, while Asia’s declined. The Dec’24 JKM softened to just above $13/MMBtu on mild temperatures and secure North Asian supply…
We were waiting for what seemed like forever, but China’s fiscal stimulus is finally here and they’ve thrown the kitchen sink at it. China announced 10 trillion yuan for refinancing local government debt. Financing debt with debt. No risks to see here. They will raise the local government debt ceiling to 35.52 trillion yuan and are enabling the issuance of 6 trillion yuan in special bonds. Possibly panicking having seen the FTSE A50 Index futures nosedive over 5%, officials later announced an additional 4 trillion yuan. What could possibly go wrong? 5% GDP growth must be achieved. No matter the cost. But Trump Tariffs are coming. Standard Chartered and Macquarie said 60% tariffs from Trump could damage Chinese GDP by 2%. The export-driven economy is really dependent on US customers: 15% of China’s 2023 exports (that’s $500 billion by the way) headed across the Pacific to American importers, according to UN data. That’s a big slice of the pie.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this morning from $75.10/bbl at 07:00 GMT down to $74.50/bbl at 10:25 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices weakened amid the unveiling of China’s $1.4 trillion stimulus package. Chinese officials neglected to announce additional measures to boost domestic demand, potentially disappointing markets according to a Financial Times report. In the news today, Petrobras reported a 22% increase in its Q3’24 net profit at $5.7 billion. This was partly due to several operational milestones including the start of oil production at Petrobras’ Mero-3 platform with a capacity of 180kb/d and at their FPSO Maria Quiteria with a capacity of 100kb/d. In other news, Citigroup claimed a Trump presidency may be net bearish for crude prices on higher domestic production and tariffs. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered said US producers won’t necessarily heed Trump’s call for more drilling. Finally, the UN Human Rights Office stated that women and children account for nearly 70% of fatalities it has verified in the Gaza war thus far, condemning what it called a systematic violation of the fundamental principles of international humanitarian law, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.32/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.
A general downtrend through the morning shifted into reverse when the Americans woke up (again). Flat price got choppy – they’re less decisive about where they want their oil price than who they want as president! A foray beyond $75 before the window was partially pared back by the close, but Brent held on to end the day at $75.09/bbl. Post-window, it climbed again, towards the upper-$75 range. The bears are ever more numerous. Citi expects prices to tumble with a Trump presidency. The big bank now expects Brent to average $60/bbl next year. It thinks a second term for Trump will be bearish by relaxing the regulatory environment: reversing Biden’s increases to royalties, costs for minimum bids and lease rates on Federal lands highlighted as important drivers. According to Citi, Europe and China are particularly “exposed” to the risks of a blazing trade war. Citi had already been projecting only around 700 kb/d of oil demand growth this year, so it’s not like they’re new to the bearish camp, but they’ve doubled down on their position.
It was a historic week for the US as someone had to change Grover Cleveland’s Wikipedia from ‘only’ to ‘first’. Landslide results, comparable to 1964, point to a similarly anxious America, with Google searches for ‘WW3’ up 15% in the week and worryingly, searches for ‘who is running for president’ seeing a 200% weekly increase. LBJ’s 1964 “We must love each other, or we must die” may be too sentimental and ‘nineteen sixties’ for Trump 2.0, but “I’m going to stop wars” and “let’s stop killing people”, but it inspires some hope that the geopolitical risk volatilities may lessen. The market has a few months of processing time to check the effects of tariffs, regulations, sanctions, and drill baby drill, but the initial market reaction has been a bit measured. The possible sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and the potential relief from the Russian sanctions have been the supply conversation points. Still, we’re talking long-term here, and the immediate impact on the flat price was quickly reversed by some offshore drilling evacuation. There are a few months to prepare before the official handover for Nancy Pelosi to clean out her portfolio of anything green whilst the Dems figure out who to point the finger at.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract rallied from $74.25/bbl at 12:00 GMT today up to $75.70/bbl just after 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices rose amid expectations of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut to be announced at 19:00 GMT tonight. Earlier today, the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 bps from 5% to 4.75%. In the news today, Hezbollah lawmaker Ibrahim al-Moussawi said that the Lebanese group welcomes any effort to stop the conflict but does not pin hopes for a ceasefire on any particular US administration, as stated in a Reuters report. In other news, China’s crude oil imports remain low in October at 10.53mb/d (-9% y/y), marking the sixth straight month where oil imports have fallen compared to the same months in 2023, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. This follows reduced capacity at PetroChina’s largest refinery in Dalian and weak demand from independent Chinese refiners. Finally, Ghana’s crude oil output has increased by 10.7% y/y in the first six months of 2024, at 24.9mb for June 2024, the country’s Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC) reported. The increase was primarily driven by Tullow Oil’s Jubilee South East (JSE) project, which commenced production in late 2023, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.44/bbl, respectively.
The giddiness from the Chinese stimulus continues across many markets. INE contracts have risen, fuelled by retail demand and this has opened the arbitrage to deliver Middle Eastern crudes into the INE qualified tanks. Such Arbs have led a lucky few like Vitol and Totsa buying relatively cheap Abu Dhabi grades to deliver into China. Of course, some Chinese sources complain, and they use the M word. But maybe in this case it’s in reference to the small retail guys
The Dubai window saw the Chinese come to the fore. PetroChina seized the role of biggest bidder, lifting offers from anyone and everyone. As is becoming customary, Unipec was a big seller and today and these two were rewarded: Unipec declared an Upper Zakum cargo to PetroChina. Shenghong joined in on the sellside again, while Totsa finally seemed to get tired out, collecting just a few partials, as did Equinor. As ever, Exxon was firmly on the sellside and hit numerous bids, while Trafi and Reliance also dished out a few. The Dubai physical premium has tumbled into November from its heights, where it averaged $1.53, but has slid to an average of $0.70 in November so far.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw consistent strength this afternoon, ultimately increasing from $74.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $75.30/bbl at 17:40 GMT. Crude oil prices rallied from around $73.40/bbl at 13:50 GMT up to $75.92/bbl just after 16:00 GMT as the market reacted to increasing threats to US Gulf Coast oil production from Hurricane Rafael and US President Trump’s election victory. A build of nearly 2.15mb compared to an expected 1.8mb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 01 Nov, announced in EIA data released at 15:30 GMT, led to a 40c drop to $74.95/bbl but otherwise had little effect as Brent continued to strengthen. In the news today, Russian Energy Ministry data showed the nation’s crude oil production in October was at 8.97mb, up 3kb/d from September and just 5kb/d above the OPEC+ quota for the month. In other news, Iraq’s oil exports were recorded at 3.3mb/d in October, according to Oil Ministry figures, with the government continuing to restrain output in response to pressure from OPEC+. Finally, India’s oil demand rose by 2.9% y/y in October to nearly 20.04 million metric tons, with gasoline, LPG, and aviation turbine fuel accounting for the largest increases in demand, according to PPAC reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.52/bbl, respectively.
Key propane benchmarks over the past fortnight have seen a mixed bag of price movements in the fortnight leading up to 05 Nov.
Now we’ve had our fill of democracy, the hysterical clamours from all sides about the US election will hopefully subside soon, as the world assesses another 4 years of Trumpism. Team America seemed buoyed by the election news and sent flat price up on a $2.50 rally from lunchtime in the UK, undoing the Asian and European traders’ efforts to sink the price. Just short covering or soon-to-recede waves of optimism? A 2.1 mb build in crude stocks shown by the EIA was a stumbling block for the afternoon rally flat price had been enjoying, but it quickly overcame a small dip. The inventory stats are most interesting as a longer-term trend. Overall, since the week ending 27 September, despite a couple of minor draws, US crude stocks have risen a total of 14.615 mb. Cushing is up just over 3 mb in the same period. That’s not giving signs of a country thirsty for more oil! After a sizeable 2.71 mb draw in gasoline stocks last week, these rose alongside crude inventories, up 412 kb.
TRUMP IS IN! He’s claimed victory ahead of the boring suits that could not bring themselves to stating it when it was already obvious. Wisconsin’s result confirmed the win, pushing him over the fabled 270 electoral votes. And the Republicans look set for the hattrick: Trump as president, a majority in the Senate and a likely majority in the House of Representatives too. A hole in one for the golf-loving returning president. International leaders have joined the customary chorus of congratulations. Modi’s heartiest congratulations, Starmer calls it historic, NATO leadership… they’re all at it. Israel’s Netanyahu seemed particularly gleeful, announcing Trump’s win a “huge victory!” But is there trouble in paradise? Last night, Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, a stubborn thorn in the Prime Minister’s side. Iran, meanwhile, doesn’t seem to think the election will change much for them. Wishful thinking or calling his bluff? We saw aggressive sanctions against Iran in Trump’s first term, which could well return. And don’t forget the biggest open festering wound of all, the Ukrainian war. We hope things cool down a bit! Young men and civilians will thank Trump for sure, maybe even worship him!
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $74.30/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.58/bbl at 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Price action was choppy this morning as traders adjust their positions in light of US President Trump’s victory in the US election. At the time of writing, Trump holds 277 of the 270 electoral votes required to win, while Harris holds a total of 224. In addition, prices were pressured by a much higher than expected 3.13mb build in US crude oil inventories, according to API data for the week to 01 Nov. In the news today, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy chief Ali Fadavi stated that Tehran is prepared for a confrontation with Israel and would not rule out a preemptive strike by the US and Israel following Trump’s election win, according to the Times of Israel reposted in a note by Giovanni Staunovo. In other news, Iraq is expected to start delivering crude oil from Kurdistan to its state-owned company SOMO, with a $16/bbl rate set for foreign oil companies operating in Iraqi Kurdistan, as per Reuters. Deliveries of Kurdish crude oil were previously suspended for over a year amid a dispute between the central Iraqi government and Turkey over authorization of the deliveries. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.48/bbl, respectively.
The naphtha market has been resilient and strong into the end of October with the dips bought into well and the strong gasnaph selling flows supporting the complex further. It will be interesting to see how this strength will be maintained in November. Fundamentally, we are seeing the focus on the crackers, which are due to start up in the New Year, but will this sustain buying for another month? There have been good spread bids into the end of October, but this has been less apparent in November.
Debate and speculation should soon come to an end. From Trump’s criminal trial and expecting Biden to stand for a second term, to Trump’s post-assassination attempt defiant fist raised photo and potentially the first ever female US president. So many models and projections, voter sampling and interviewing. Betting odds versus polling. It all comes down to today. This is the most important election of our lifetime. Hang on, didn’t they say that in 2020? And 2016. And probably 2012 and 2008. Essentially, it’s important. Expect fireworks, and not only in the UK for Guy Fawkes night. The US election is reaching its crescendo after months of build-up and anxiety. We’re sure more than a few grey hairs owe their discolouring to the stressful lead-in. On the final European close before the election, Brent ended at $76.01/bbl but quickly sold off to around $75.50/bbl.
The key detail this fortnight has been the dichotomy between the Bal-Nov/Dec’24 and the Dec/Jan’25 Brent/Dubai boxes. The Balmo box initially saw trade house and producer selling, taking it down 12c d/d at the start of November to $0.15/bbl.
Jan’25 Brent futures flat price saw further support this afternoon, increasing from $75.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $75.95/bbl at 17:30 GMT, before falling to $75.50/bbl around 18:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were supported amid potential short covering and rebalancing of portfolios ahead of the US election, in addition to a sustained market reaction to OPEC delaying their December production hike until January. In the news today, Iranian crude oil supplied to China has reached its most expensive price in five years, with the discount of Iran Light crude to ICE Brent narrowing to below $4/bbl from between $5-6/bbl earlier this year, according to Reuters. This came as Iran’s cargo loadings slumped last month amid concerns that Israel would target Iranian energy facilities in their retaliatory missile attack.In other news, Marathon plans to operate its 13 refineries at 90% of combined capacity in Q4’24, amounting to production of 2.95mb/d, as per Reuters. Furthermore, Marathon’s Q3’24 profit beat Wall Street estimates on better-than-expected refining throughput of 3mb/d compared to the forecasted 2.84mb/d. Finally, state-run Oil India has missed its Q2’24 profit targets on lower crude prices and weak fuel demand, totalling around $218 million in comparison to analysts’ expectations of $222 million. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.40/bbl and $1.59/bbl, respectively.
Over the past week, the Dated Brent market has been undoubtedly bullish as physical differentials rose from $0.28/bbl to $0.55/bbl between 28 Oct to 4 Nov. Petroineos have been consistent bidders, whilst Geneva-based trade houses were bidding Forties, lending support to near-term physical demand. Brent’s flat price has been buoyed by OPEC+ delaying plans to increase output, which has also lent support to Brent spreads. In addition, rising gasoil prices have improved refinery margins, providing a more supportive backdrop for crude. The Nov’24 DFL has risen from $0.30/bbl to $0.50/bbl w/w, while deferred spreads have largely corrected higher after initially seeing a drastic drop at the beginning of last week (28 Oct to 01 Nov) following the deflation of geopolitical risk.
OCTOBER MONTHLY REVIEW EDITION – Another week brings another selection of new trade ideas from Onyx Research, this time looking at trades in crude oil and gasoline swaps. Our weekly Onyx Alpha report presents speculative and hedging trades based on technical analysis and data-driven tradecraft methods on Onyx Commitment of Traders (COT) and Flux Financials data.
Brent surpassed $75 yesterday and consolidated those gains today ahead of the US election. It finally closed at $75.26/bbl and rose further after the window. OPEC is surely punching the air. Its announced postponements and dillydallying to returning supply appear to be paying off. But they can’t stave off the inevitable forever. Despite those promises to delay unwinding of cuts, Iran is gearing up to bolster production. The Iranian Economic Council approved the financing of an “urgent” boost to crude output by 250 kb/d, though didn’t provide a timeframe for the increase. We guess Chinese teapots are thirsty for more cheap crude given struggling margins, as 2025’s import quotas just rose. And it’s good for Iran too; it gets to sell more oil!
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract saw strength this morning, trading from $75.05/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $75.39/bbl at 10:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices have been supported amid potential for Hurricane Rafael to disrupt 4mb/d of oil production in the US Gulf Coast, according to Reuters. In the news today, Russian oil and gas revenue has jumped 57% m/m in October to $12.35 billion, as per Russian finance ministry data. Meanwhile, a Bloomberg report shows Russia’s seaborne crude weekly exports for the week to 3 Nov dropped by 530kb/d, the biggest decline since early June. This came as Russia made no shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk and only one shipment from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. In other news, France’s foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot is expected travel to Israel on Wednesday to work towards a diplomatic end to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Barrot stated France would work with whoever wins the US election and that the US “plays an essential role in ending the Israeli-Arab conflict”. Finally, trading firms are projected to deliver an unusually large volume of about 5mb of Middle East crude oil to the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE) this month, as per Reuters. Vitol are to deliver the most crude to INE, about 3mb, including about 840kb of Abu Dhabi Murban crude and 2mb of Iraqi Basra Medium crude. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.43/bbl and $1.65/bbl, respectively.
Waiting on Uncle Sam – ICE Brent briefly moved above $80/bbl in early October as Iran, for a second time since April, took aim at Israel, launching some 200 ballistic missiles, exposing holes in Israel’s Iron Dome defence system. Israel initially pressed its advantage in southern Lebanon against Hezbollah and, through a chance encounter in Gaza, killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the 7 October 2023 terrorist attacks. In the early morning hours of Saturday, 26 October, Israel chose to strike back. The much-awaited retaliation was underwhelming, given initial vows of “lethal” and “surprising” retaliation. Israel stayed clear of oil infrastructure, nuclear, or leadership objectives. The US could not have hoped for a better outcome…
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially saw weakness this afternoon, trading from $75.25/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $74.30/bbl around 15:50 GMT, before recovering to $75.15/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Despite profit-taking flows, prices overall have been supported following the OPEC+ decision to delay a production hike for another month. In the news today, according to a Reuters survey, OPEC oil output was up 195kb/d in October m/m, with Libya posting the largest gain of up to 400kb/d. Crude oil production in Venezuela reached 860kb/d, the highest since at least 2020, while Iraq cut crude oil output by 120kb/d, amid lower exports and domestic consumption. In other news, developing Tropical Storm Rafael is projected to strengthen into a hurricane late Tuesday as it moves northwest from the Caribbean towards offshore oil production areas in the Gulf of Mexico, as per the US National Hurricane Center. Finally, according to Argus Media, Asia-Pacific refiners have increased their intake of US light sweet WTI for November loading, buying around 1.3mb/d of WTI loading compared to roughly 800kb/d in October and could remain keen buyers in December. Meanwhile, European demand for crude is expected to rebound in December following the end of autumn refinery maintenance, with Ekofisk adding around 60c/bbl relative to WTI since mid-October. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.42/bbl and $1.57/bbl, respectively.
The gap between the two US presidential candidates has been closing in both the betting market and polls. FiveThirtyEight shows a 1 point Harris lead on average, where just last week she was 1.4 points ahead. In the betting odds, Polymarket is showing a 58.1% chance of a Trump triumph, 10% lower than last Thursday… it’s like someone is scripting this to go down to the wire. Harris looks set to win the popular vote, according to Polymarket, but it doesn’t matter how many people vote for you if they’re in the wrong place. Many analysts have given a lot of credence to betting odds, so it’s crunch time to see if that confidence was misplaced. The Dems beat Trump to something: 20 states saw gasoline prices fall below $3/gallon!
In the week ending 29 October, Brent and WTI futures inched up but then saw pressure as they gapped down on 28 Oct as the risk premia built into their flat prices saw a significant reduction due to the Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites being seen as non-excitatory. Both WTI and Brent gapped down on the open, and there was better support at these lower levels. The geopolitical landscape has changed to feel less risk-on, although the rhetoric from Iran has ramped up a bit this week. Still, it will not be represented in the COT data next week.
Both WTI and Brent saw an increase in short positions for the second consecutive week, with their total open interest increasing by over 2.00% (82.9mb). Short interest from funds in Brent Futures by around 9.8mb (11.05%) and a 16.8mb (28.0%) drop in short interest in WTI. The long:short ratio fell from 2.47:1.00 to 2.07:1.00 w/w (7th percentile for all weeks since 2013). Prod/Merc players continued to have a risk-on week, with both longs and shorts increasing their positions by 64mb and 36mb respectively.
The Jan/Feb’25 Brent futures spread recovered from an intraday low of $0.30/bbl on 29 Oct to an intraday high of $0.46/bbl on 01 Nov, where it met resistance. This recovery emerged amid Iran threatening to retaliate against Israel’s attack, injecting further risk into the market.
OPEC caught us on the blindside with its extension of voluntary cuts, kicking the oil can down the road to at least the end of December. They’ve entrenched themselves in defence of the $70 line, declaring: “No pasarán!” Or is it the $75.00 line? And the markets liked it, with flat price opening around $1.40/bbl up from Friday’s close. OPEC must have enjoyed October’s increased oil prices, pumped up by geopolitical anxieties, and decided it wanted to keep them there. A similar announcement in September provoked little price reaction, as most market participants expected the cuts to be extended, but were more divided for the progression of OPEC’s supply this time. Crucially, in September, they announced a 2 month extension – this time it’s 1 month. Members’ patience is thin; they want to sell crude and they need money!
After rallying at market open this week from $72.90/bbl on 01 Nov to $74.35/bbl last night, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract showed steady support this morning, climbing from $74.40/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.70/bbl just after 10:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices were elevated amid an OPEC+ decision on Sunday to extend its output cut of 2.2mb/d by another month, initially planning to increase production in December. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, Israel has officially notified the UN that it is cancelling the agreement that regulated relations with the UN relief organization for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA) since 1967, fuelling concerns of a worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza. This came as Palestinian medics claimed Israeli airstrikes killed at least 31 people in the Gaza strip on Sunday. In other news, China’s refining output is set to fall to 14.7mb/d this quarter on thin margins and weak demand, in addition to maintaining lower run rates in Q1’25, as per Reuters. Finally, Eni has sold $1 billion worth of upstream offshore assets in Alaska to US private company Hilcorp, planning to raise €8 billion in net proceeds between 2024-2027 to fund the growth of its low-carbon units. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.42/bbl, respectively.
Brent flat price saw a choppy day as the geopolitical risk premium was reignited. We oscillated between $75 and $74 for most of the day. But then the Americans came in and decided the price was too high so sold it down to $73.50. They clearly saw Iran’s promise to hit Israel at the “appropriate time and manner” as an admission an attack wasn’t imminent. After all, we eventually closed at $73.46/bbl. How low will we go once this geopolitical risk premium finally dissipates? The fundamentals don’t look good, whoever you talk to. The stage is set to send this sucker down.
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract weakened this afternoon, moving from the $74.30/bbl level at 12:00 GMT down to $73.30/bbl at 17:30 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices sold-off 80c just after 14:20 GMT, declining to $73.47/bbl at 14:50 GMT, amid the release of US manufacturing PMI data at 14:00 GMT showing a contraction to 46.5 in October, compared to a forecast of 47.6. In the news today, according to a Bloomberg report, oil supplies from OPEC increased by 370kb/d to 29.9mb/d in October, with Libya adding 500kb/d after the end of the central bank feud and Iraq cutting 90kb/d. In other news, Venezuela’s oil exports have reached a four-year high, approaching 950kb/d in October, as per Reuters. The boost in oil exports is the result of increased crude output and more sales to India and the US, according to ship tracking data. Finally, Exxon reported $8.61 billion in their Q3-24 earnings, down 5% y/y, while hitting a 40-year liquids production high at 3.2mb/d. Meanwhile, Exxon has sold the Fos-sur-Mer refinery in France to a consortium composed of Entara and Trafigura. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.38/bbl and $1.27/bbl, respectively.