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Futures Report: World Affairs Brings The Bears

Technical indicators for the current period highlighted similar trends across product groups. Brent’s RSI has been hovering around overbought territory, with price action oscillating around the $90/bbl mark throughout the week.

This Week’s Target Price: $86-88/bbl

After a relatively rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $90/bbl mark and hitting highs of $92.18/bbl on Apr 12, Brent futures has opened weaker following the weekend’s events – retracing to below the $90/bbl mark.   

A Tale of Two Margins

Refinery margins calculate a refiner’s profit margins – and usually, we see Asian margins tower over their European counterparts. Why then have M1 Asian margins lately fallen under European margins? Find out the “crude” details about this in our latest article.

Futures Report – Back to $100/bbl?

Technical indicators for the current period highlight contrasting trends across product groups. Brent’s RSI remains in overbought territory, reflecting recent sharp price increases tempered by easing Middle East tensions. Gasoil shows renewed strength, with a firm RSI and widening Bollinger

This Week’s Target Price: $91-93/bbl

Oil prices clocked in a momentous week with the June Brent futures contract jumping from $88.80/bbl at 17:00 BST on Apr 04 to the sanctified $90/bbl marker just two hours later and ending the week coming close to $92/bbl.

This Week’s Target Price: $90-92/bbl

After a rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $85/bbl mark, Brent futures strengthened in the lead up to the Easter bank holiday weekend. Support continues to be found, surpassing the $89/bbl mark on Apr 02.

Back to the Futures

Technical indicators for June revealed a week of softening prices in a risk-off attitude across the product groups.

Taking Plastic Measures

What’s the link between your car, a plastic straw, and your chemistry GCSE? Petrochemicals! Currently, the Asian and European petchem markets are seeing opposing strengths.

Futures Report: Price Action Stagnation

Technical indicators for June revealed a week of consolidation and widening Bollinger bands. Brent’s RSI briefly entered overbought territory before coming off as prices corrected lower.

This Week’s Target Price: $86-87/bbl

Oil prices registered some strength overnight on the back of support generated in the early hours of Asian trading with the Jun Brent futures climbing to $85.40/bbl at 03:20 GMT. The futures eased to $85.35/bbl come 09:20 GMT, but remain elevated compared to last Friday’s plummet into the sub-$85/bbl handles.

This Week’s Target Price: $87-88/bbl

After surging to four-month highs towards the end of last week, May Brent futures started the week in a similar vein, strengthening to briefly surpass the $86/bbl mark and record a near 5% increase week-on-week.

Dated Brent, the guy she told you not to worry about 

In a year of stagnant crude oil prices, our latest article delves into why traders are turning to a lesser-known segment of the oil market for lucrative opportunities. We examine the intricate dynamics driving recent developments in North Sea oil within this niche.

Brent FutureZzzzz

In this weeks Futures report, technical indicators were slightly more bullish in the past week in Brent, Gasoil and RBOB with prices generally seeing an upward trend and the RSI’s overall around or above 50.

Interest in Brent Goes Missing

Last week, the futures market was supported overall with an overall strong crude market as well as some gains in American gasoline. Here is a summary of what happened:

Gas-napping at the Wheel   

Differentials exist in all markets, not limited to when you choose to pick a different captain to Haaland in fantasy premier league. In the oil market, an important differential is gasnaph, which utilises one of naphtha’s key roles of being

Brent Bracing for Bears?

In Brent, May prices strengthened slightly over the past week with the RSI also showing signs of upward momentum as it crossed overbought territory on Feb 22, at 79. The May RBOB contract traded within Bollinger band although the RSI crossed overbought territory, sitting at 71 on Feb 22. Gasoil on the other hand is well in neutral territory as prices initially came off to retrace higher towards the end of the week.

Brent trades around $83/bbl as Uncertainty Supports Crude

The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $83/bbl mark initially before dipping below it and trading at $82.77/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar softening as prices were at $77.62/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Futures Report: Go Long Or Go Home

In Brent, Apr prices have continued to strengthen, hovering around the $82.50/bbl mark. Nonetheless, from a technical perspective, prices remain firmly within neutral territory on both a Bollinger band and RSI basis.

This Week’s Target Price: $85/bbl

Oil prices were seen hovering around the $82.75/bbl handles on Monday morning after last week witnessed the Brent futures for the Apr contract rise by over 1%, following a 6% gain in the previous week.

Propane… More Like Pro-pain

Why is the Asian benchmark weakening while its U.S. counterpart remains strong? We uncover more about shifting demand patterns and market volatility mitigation strategies, providing our overview of the propane trade landscape in 2024.

Brent Stays Above The $83/bbl Mark

The April Brent futures is trading at $83.21/bbl at the time of writing, 16:45 GMT. The contract traded down to a low of $81.97/bbl at noon and subsequently experienced a steady rise throughout the afternoon to settle around the $83/bbl mark.

Case Study: Mar Naphtha E/W

Despite the geopolitical risk premia buoying up the naphtha E/W, we recommended shorting the Mar E/W in our Feb 13 naphtha report. Find out more about the logic behind this trade in our new case study.

Apr Brent futures holds above the $82/bbl mark

The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $82/bbl mark and trading at $82.72/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $77.66/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Gasoline Still Pumping?

Prices have strengthened in the Brent futures, RBOB futures and the ICE LS gasoil futures for the Apr tenor. From a technical perspective, the Apr Brent and RBOB futures are in neutral territory with the RSI around the 60-handles, signalling upward momentum.

This week’s target price: $78-80/bbl

Oil prices dipped slightly into Monday, back into $81/bbl handles, after seeing a 6% gain last week having fallen 9% a week previous, with heavy price swings very characteristic of the market at the moment.

Brent futures gained as the rumours fade

The Apr Brent futures contract has seen increased support overnight with prices strengthening above the $79/bbl mark and seen at $79.14/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $74/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Brent futures move sideways amid a mixed bag of news

The Apr Brent futures contract has been very volatile over the day and seems to be moving sideways amid a mixed bag of news. The contract was seen trading around the $77.50/bbl handles and dropped to a daily low of $76.63/bbl at 14:50 GMT. At 17:00 GMT (time of writing), prices were trading at $77.38/bbl.

Future Horizons: A Prudent Perspective

After last weeks bearish run saw a crash from geopolitical risk derived highs, Onyx research suggests cautious room for growth in Brent as tensions in the Middle East escalate.

Edge Updates

CFT- See the Futures…

In addition to our regular Monday CFTC COT analysis report, Onyx Insight will publish its own in-house CFTC COT forecast ahead of the official Friday report. The model forecasts changes in long and short positions using machine learning, utilising Onyx’s proprietary data.

COT Report: NEW DESIGN

As players remain uncertain about wartime risk premia impacting the futures, the volatility appears to have hit oil products in varied ways. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. 

Brent Stable Around $89/bbl Levels 

The prompt Brent futures contract saw a quiet start to the morning before experiencing a retracement downwards, from $89.82/bbl at 09:15 BST down to $89.06/bbl at 10:15 BST.

Brent Softens To Below $90/bbl

The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has witnessed a weaker morning, falling from highs of $90.64/bbl in the early hours to lows of $89.23/bbl at 09:05 BST. Prices saw a slight uptick since, printing at $89.69/bbl at 11:20 BST.

Brent breaks into $91/bbl Territory

Jun Brent flat price has seen an interesting afternoon amid price action finally breaking into $91/bbl handles at 13:30 BST and hitting a peak of $92.10/bbl at 15:25 BST.

Waha-ha-ha-ha Hub – LNG Market Report

As crude prices strengthen, producers remain keen to keep crude flowing. However, these wells in the US produce natural gas as a by-product, leading to an even greater supply glut.

Brent Strengthening Back Towards $91/bbl

June Brent futures flat price maintained strength in the $90/bbl handles this morning. Initially prices hovered around $90.20/bbl during the early hours, before support has seen price action push towards the $91/bbl mark, printing at $90.76/bbl at 11:20 BST.

Brent Struggles to Break into $91/bbl

The prompt Brent Futures contract saw a stable start to the morning, rangebound between $90.40/bbl and $90.90/bbl before seeing a strong correction downwards from 09:30 BST to settle at $90.06/bbl at 10:20 BST.

CFTC Predictor – Risky Business in Brent

In the week to April 9th, our tool forecasts long speculators added to their positions for the fourth consecutive week while at the same time, short money managers are forecast to have also added to their positions after three consecutive

Brent weakens on EIA-announced crude build

June Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy afternoon, rallying back into the $90/bbl region at 14:10 BST but failing to maintain this level and falling to $88.95/bbl come 16:10 BST.

Putting The ‘L’ in LPG

The LST/FEI arb witnessed notable weakness in the first week of the fortnight. Prompt prices fell from -$160/mt on Mar 27 to lows of -$186/mt come Apr 02, before retracing to above the -$180/mt mark for the rest of the week.

COT Report: Brent Strength Eclipses Products

As Brent strengthened to above the $90/bbl mark, products felt the heat. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six one to watches for the week ahead. 

Brent Softens Below $90/bbl

Prompt Brent futures flat price has witnessed a relatively weak afternoon period. Prices were initially stable around the $90.50/bbl mark, reaching highs of $90.71/bbl at 13:10 BST. However, since then prices slipped lower, reaching $89.56/bbl at 16:12 BST.

Naphtha Report: FLOP-J

This past fortnight has seen a far weaker naphtha complex in both regions, yet, the East has performed slightly better in the past couple days.

COT Report: Crack-Down

As Brent pushes towards the $90/bbl mark, product cracks have taken a hit. See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watches for the week ahead. 

Brent Happy Around $90.50/bbl Mark

The Brent Futures prompt contract has seen a volatile morning, opening around $90.60/bbl before oscillating from lows of $90.40/bbl up to highs of $90.93/bbl at 08:50 BST.

Brent Strengthens Back To Above $90/bbl

The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract initially saw a slight pull back and dipped to below the $89/bbl mark in the early hours. However with the prospect of war still very apparent, the contract has strengthened once again surpassing the $90/bbl mark at 08:45 BST and reaching highs of $90.67/bbl at 10:30 BST.

CFTC Report: The Long Jump

For the week to Apr 02, the combined positions by money managers in Brent and WTI showed a return to bullish positioning, overall.