Fuel Oil

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract continued to rise this afternoon from $72.62/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.65/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Russia’s seaborne crude exports have risen ahead of 5 Dec’s OPEC+ ministerial meeting to discuss production policy for 2025. Daily crude flows in the week to 1 Dec jumped by about 570kb/d to 3.36 million with more ships leaving Russia’s Baltic, Black Sea, and Arctic ports, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Israel’s Defence Minister Israel Katz threatened to return to war in Lebanon if its truce with Hezbollah collapses, stating “until now we separated the state of Lebanon from Hezbollah… it will no longer be [like this]”, according to a Reuters report. Finally, maintenance at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is still ongoing with repairs not completed on schedule, the Kazakh Energy Ministry told Russian news agency Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.39/bbl and $1.46/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract saw weakness this afternoon, falling from $72.66/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.77/bbl at 17:55 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Iran-backed Iraqi fighters crossed into Syria to help the government fight rebels who seized Aleppo last week, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah has no plans for now to join them, according to a Reuters report. Meanwhile, Hezbollah launched an attack on an Israeli army position in the Mount Dov area, as an “initial warning” amid “continued violation of Lebanese airspace by hostile Israeli aircraft”, The Times of Israel reported. This came as US special envoy Amos Hochstein reportedly sent a message urging Israel to uphold the ceasefire deal, in light of Israeli drone flights over Beirut. In other news, Asia’s crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to 5.83mb/d in November, up from 5.28mb/d in October, as per data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. In addition, Russia’s supplies to Asia dropped to 3.51mb/d in November, the lowest level since January, according to LSEG. Finally, Gazprom’s natural gas flows via the Power of Siberia pipeline to China have reached full capacity of 38 billion cubic meters annually, as per Russian news agency Interfax. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $1.12/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, falling from $73.05/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $72.45/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). EIA data for the week to 22 Nov showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.84mb in US crude oil inventories, compared to a build of 0.5mb the prior week. In the news today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the US today to halt a “spiral of escalation” over Ukraine, stating “you mustn’t supply Kyiv with everything they want”, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted an official saying Moscow was working to put its Sarmat ICBM, part of its strategic nuclear arsenal, on combat duty. In other news, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed widening the current six-month ban on fuel exports to gasoline, jet fuel and bitumen, starting January 2025, according to Interfax. Finally, Prax is continuing to work toward buying Shell’s minority stake in the Schwedt oil refinery in east Germany, as per Bloomberg. The shareholder structure of the Schwedt refinery has been complicated by the involvement of Russia’s Rosneft, whose stake was seized by the German government. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.

The Feb’25 Brent futures contract declined marginally from $72.90/bbl at 12:00 GMT to a touch under $72.75/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, Russian President Putin said Moscow launched more than 90 missiles and 100 drones that hit 17 targets in Ukraine, leaving more than 1 million people without power…

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract has weakened this afternoon, falling from $73.05/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $72.45/bbl at 17:50 GMT (time of writing). EIA data for the week to 22 Nov showed a larger-than-expected draw of 1.84mb in US crude oil inventories, compared to a build of 0.5mb the prior week. In the news today, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov warned the US today to halt a “spiral of escalation” over Ukraine, stating “you mustn’t supply Kyiv with everything they want”, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, Russian state news agency TASS quoted an official saying Moscow was working to put its Sarmat ICBM, part of its strategic nuclear arsenal, on combat duty. In other news, the Kazakh Energy Ministry has proposed widening the current six-month ban on fuel exports to gasoline, jet fuel and bitumen, starting January 2025, according to Interfax. Finally, Prax is continuing to work toward buying Shell’s minority stake in the Schwedt oil refinery in east Germany, as per Bloomberg. The shareholder structure of the Schwedt refinery has been complicated by the involvement of Russia’s Rosneft, whose stake was seized by the German government. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.60/bbl and $1.68/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract initially traded rangebound around high $73/bbl levels this afternoon, before falling to $72.30/bbl level at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). There was a brief spike to $74.25/bbl just before 14:45 GMT as a Bloomberg report revealed that OPEC+ had begun talks on delaying the restart of oil production again.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon from $75.15/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to around $73.10/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Bearish sentiment prevailed this afternoon while markets turned focus to talks of an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. A senior Israeli official said today that Israel’s cabinet would meet on Tuesday to approve a ceasefire deal with Hezbollah, according to Reuters. Meanwhile, a senior US official told Axios today that both Israel and Lebanon agreed to the terms of a ceasefire agreement with a 60-day transition period during which the Israeli military would withdraw from southern Lebanon. In other news, a Reuters report stated that incoming US President Trump is drafting an energy package to expand domestic oil and gas drilling, in addition to expediting LNG export permits. Finally, Kazakhstan could increase its crude oil exports out of Turkey’s port of Ceyhan, with Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev claiming exports via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline could increase to 20 million metric tons a year from the current 1.5 million, not specifying an exact time frame. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.57/bbl and $1.74/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract was supported this afternoon, moving up more than $1 from $73.80/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $75.05/bbl at 17:35 GMT (time of writing). Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront as Ukraine’s ex-military Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny stated “the Third World War has begun” today, speaking at the Ukrainska Pravda’s UP100 award ceremony. In the news, Gunvor has undertaken a temporary economic shutdown of its Rotterdam refinery, with a capacity of less than 80kb/d, due to a “lack of prompt availability of commercially viable feedstock”. Closure will be effective as of 25 Nov according to Bloomberg. In other news, Kazakhstan’s Tengiz oil field is now producing 10,000 tonnes per day less than planned after repairs, KazMunayGas CEO Askhat Khasenov said. Finally, Russia’s Lukoil is restoring operations of its catalytic cracker complex at their NORSI oil refinery, after breaking down on 13 Nov. NORSI refines about 16 million tons of crude per year, or 5.8% of Russia’s total refined crude, as per Reuters. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.45/bbl and $1.77/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined from an intraday peak of $74.37/bbl at 12:30 GMT down to $73.55/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). In the news today, China is projected to import around 11.4mb/d of crude oil in November, the highest volumes since August imports of 11.56mb/d, according to Reuters citing tanker-tracking and port data by LSEG and Kpler. In other news, Russian refineries are likely to reduce or keep their crude throughputs unchanged in the coming weeks as the gasoline export ban, persistent rail delays, and increases in excise taxes continue to hurt margins, as per S&P Global. Finally, the ICC has issued arrest warrants for Israeli PM Netanyahu, his former defence chief Yoav Gallant, and a Hamas leader, Ibrahim al-Masri, for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Gaza conflict. According to a Financial Times report, Israel stated in August that Ibrahim al-Masri was killed in an airstrike in Gaza a month earlier. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.41/bbl and $1.38/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon after initial strength, moving from $73.60/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.93/bbl at 14:00 GMT, before falling to $72.90/bbl at 17:40 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices fell to the $73/bbl support level just after 15:30 GMT today amid the release of EIA data, which showed a build of 545kb in US crude oil inventories for the week to 15 Nov. In the news today, Ukraine has fired UK-made Storm Shadow missiles at targets inside Russia, a day after using the US ATACMS, as per Reuters. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery has purchased its first shipment of US oil after a hiatus of three months, according to a Bloomberg report. The plant purchased about 2mb of WTI Midland from Chevron, due to be delivered next month to the refinery near Lagos. Finally, the Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has asked Iranian authorities to stop trucks carrying “oil, black oil and other petroleum products” through the border crossing areas in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdistan region unless exports are licensed by SOMO, according to a 12 November letter seen by Argus. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.31/bbl and $1.11/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this afternoon from $72.95/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.35/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices were volatile this afternoon, rising to $73.85/bbl at 15:25 GMT and steeply selling off to $72.85/bbl by 15:30 GMT, amid news that Iran agreed to stop producing near bomb-grade uranium, according to Bloomberg. Prices recovered amid ongoing concerns regarding North Sea production outages and escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In the news today, Russian crude oil shipments dipped to a two-month low in the four weeks to 17 November, as loading from Russia’s Western ports decreased, as per tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. In other news, Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is looking to buy WTI Midland for December arrival with a cargo size of 1-2mb, to be delivered to the Lekki plant near Lagos. In addition, data by Vortexa and Kpler revealed that a tanker has hauled more than 300kb of gasoline from the Dangote plant to waters of Togo, a potential sign that more volume could enter regional markets. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.25/bbl and $1.00/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent Futures rallied this afternoon, rising from $71.44/bbl at 12:00 GMT to $73.27/bbl by 16:20 GMT before encountering resistance and retracing slightly to $73/bbl as of 17:15 GMT. In headlines, news of a power outage halting output at Equinor’s Johan Sverdrup oilfield, western Europe’s largest, with a capacity of 750 kb/d has emerged, contributing to the rally in flat price. In other news, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports rose by 80 kb/d in September to 5.75 mb/d, the highest in three months, as direct crude burning for power generation fell sharply (-296 kb/d to 518 kb/d) with the end of the summer peak. Oil production dipped slightly by 17 kb/d to 8.98 mb/d, while refinery runs hit a four-month high of 2.756 mb/d, up by 35 kb/d, according to JODI data. In other news, global natural gas demand rose by 6.1 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-over-year in September, with production increasing by 7.65 bcm, driven by Russia, the U.S., Nigeria, Norway, Canada, and Azerbaijan, according to JODI’s latest data. Inventories reached a record 251 bcm, 12.6 bcm above the five-year average, after rising by 9.9 bcm in September as countries stockpiled ahead of winter. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.27/bbl and $1.09/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract declined this afternoon from $72.35/bbl at 12:00 GMT down to $71.00/bbl at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). We have seen bearish sentiment in Brent crude while China oil demand remains weak and Middle East ceasefire talks develop, with senior Iranian official Ali Larjani stating today that Iran backs any decision taken by Lebanon in securing a peace deal with Israel. In the news today, at least three Russian refineries, Tuapse, Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsky, have halted processing or cut runs due to heavy losses, according to Reuters, with these facilities struggling amid export curbs, high borrowing costs, and Ukrainian drone attacks. In other news, Sovcomflot reported a 22.2% y/y drop in nine-month revenue to $1.22 billion, claiming that the Western sanctions on Russian oil tankers limited its financial performance. Finally, according to a Bloomberg report, the selling pace of Angolan oil for December-loading is slower than usual, with about a third of the shipments still seeking buyers. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.28/bbl and $0.94/bbl, respectively.

After initial strength this afternoon, the Jan’25 Brent futures contract ultimately saw weakness this afternoon, moving from $72.45/bbl at 12:00 GMT up to $73.20/bbl 14:20 GMT down to $72.05/bbl at 17:45 GMT (time of writing). EIA data released today at 16:00 GMT for the week to 8 Nov showed a build of 2.09mb in US crude oil inventories, with US gasoline inventories falling to their lowest levels since Nov 2022. In the news today, according to a Reuters report, a senior Lebanese official Ali Hassan Khalil said Lebanon was ready to implement UN Security Council resolution 1701, which ended a 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah. Channel 12 has reported that a response from Lebanon to a ceasefire proposal sent to Beirut from the US could come within the next 24 hours. Meanwhile, Eli Cohen, Israel’s energy minister, told Reuters “we are at a point that we are closer to an arrangement than we have been since the start of the war”. In other news, Norway’s oil investment has hit an all-time high, estimated at $22.9 billion for this year compared to the previous record of $20.4 billion in 2014, Statistics Norway stated in its Q4’24 survey of companies’ investment plans. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.30/bbl and $1.14/bbl, respectively.

The Jan’25 Brent futures contract sold-off mid-afternoon from $72.20/bbl at 13:30 GMT down to $70.80/bbl at 15:00 GMT, however, made a recovery to $72.35/bbl at 18:00 GMT (time of writing). Crude prices saw pressure amid Iranian Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad’s statement that Iran has taken measures to sustain oil production and exports in preparation for potential Trump sanctions, claiming “there is no reason to be concerned”. Meanwhile, 13 Nov’s EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projected that India could account for 25% of total oil consumption growth globally in 2024 and 2025, with withdrawals from global oil inventories expected to increase amid ongoing geopolitical risk and OPEC+ production cuts. In the news today, the Mexican government is expected to unveil a draft for its 2025 budget later this week, in which $6 billion from the budget could be allocated to support the debt obligations of state oil giant Pemex, according to a Bloomberg report. Pemex’s total debt sits at almost $100 billion, with around $9 billion in debt maturing next year. In other news, the Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilev said it could be possible to lift the gasoline export ban, currently in force until the end of the year, now that there is stability in domestic fuel supply. Finally, in macroeconomic news, the release of US CPI data at 13:30 GMT today showed an increase to 2.6% in October from 2.4% in September, in line with market expectations. At the time of writing, the Jan/Feb’25 and Jan/Jul’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.35/bbl and $1.19/bbl, respectively.