Brent sees choppy but strong start to the week
The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
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The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
A year review of how fluctuating trends in oil derivatives compare to the performance of some Premier League football clubs in 2023.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a major rally this afternoon, strengthening by almost $2/bbl from $77.62/bbl at 13:00 GMT to $79.52/bbl at 16:35 GMT. Brent approaches the $80/bbl mark once again as continuous attacks
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a stronger afternoon, rising almost $1/bbl from $73.46/bbl at 12:00 GMT to highs of $74.33/bbl at 16:45 GMT. The EIA announced a second consecutive crude inventory draw, with stocks
We have seen strength in HSFO market recently with the European benchmark experiencing a robust ascent. Notably, the front crack has now reached -$12/bbl handles, indicating a notable shift in market dynamics having failed to find much traction last week.
The October Brent futures flat price has had an extremely mixed afternoon, initially falling from $81.15/bbl at 12:00 BST to the afternoon’s low of $79.45/bbl at 15:35 BST, before it then saw a retracement up to $80.20/bbl, where it sits as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
In HSFO over the past fortnight, we saw price action appear fairly unsettled alongside enduring relative Asian strength.
The October Brent futures contract has been consistently declining all morning, falling from $81.60/bbl at 07:50 BST to $81.05/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing)….
The soon-to-be-prompt October Brent futures contract dipped to $79.55/bbl at 14:00 BST, where it found support and climbed to $81.10/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing)
It’s the dawn of a new era in oil and everywhere else. US President Joe Biden stepped down to pave the way for a Trump vs Harris election riddled with all things Brat and Hannibal Lecter. In oil, the September Brent futures contract, unburdened from what had been the rangebound trading of last week, saw the beginning of a violent throwing-up.
The Sep’24 Brent futures flat price has been under downward pressure this morning, falling from $81.40/bbl at 09:25 BST to $80.28/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract weakened to $81/bbl at 16:05 BST, where it found support and sharply rallied to $82.20/bbl at 16:35 BST. The benchmark crude futures contract has since simmered off to $81.90/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $81/bbl and an unexpectedly large 5.57mb draw in US gasoline inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The September Brent futures flat price has been on an upward trajectory this morning, where despite some choppiness it has seen a 50c uptick from $81.15/bbl at 06:50 BST to $81.70/bbl, where it sits as of 11:00 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has capitulated this afternoon, falling from $82.30/bbl at 12:10 BST down to a low of $80.50/bbl at 16:55 BST, before retracing up marginally to $80.75/bbl, where it sits as of 17:05 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a relatively weak morning, trading down from highs around $82.76/bbl at 09:30 BST to a daily low of $82.24/bbl, where it currently sits at the time of writing (11:20 BST).
The September Brent futures flat price has had an afternoon of two distinct halves, initially falling from $82.40/bbl at 12:30 BST to $81.65/bbl by $81.65/bbl, before then recovering these losses to sit at $82.30/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract surpassed the $85/bbl handle again this morning, sitting at $85.30/bbl at 09:00 BST, but simmered off to $84.90/bbl by 11:25 BST (time of writing)….
The September Brent futures flat price has crumbled this afternoon following an initial tick up to $85.10/bbl at 13:45 BST.
The September Brent futures contract surpassed the $85/bbl handle again this morning, sitting at $85.30/bbl at 09:00 BST, but simmered off to $84.90/bbl by 11:25 BST (time of writing)….
God bless America; firing up WTI spreads like an AR and waking up in the morning on Wednesday and buying the hell out of Brent, flipping pricing like Vance’s opinion on Trump.
The September Brent futures contract strengthened back to the $85/bbl handle around 14:20 BST before again weakening to $84.40/bbl at 15:45 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract found support at this level and climbed to $85.30/bbl as of 17:10 BST (time of writing)…..
The September Brent Futures has seen a weaker morning, after rising to $85.80/bbl at 08:00 BST, the contract corrected downwards to a low of $84.96/bbl at 10:30 BST, and is trading at $85.06/bbl at the time of writing (11:05 BST). Of particular note in price action were the moves in spreads, with WTI/Brent Futures only discounting -$3.60/bbl, contrasting -$4.00/bbl yesterday morning, as WTI prompt spreads firmed up faster than Brent.
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The Sep Brent futures contract strengthened this evening, climbing from $83.70/bbl at 11:20 BST to $85.10/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has a mixed morning, ticking down from $83.65/bbl to a low of $83.45/bbl by 07:30 BST, before rallying to $84.10/bbl by 08:55 and then subsequently falling back down to $83.65/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures had a mixed afternoon, initially falling from $84.05/bbl to $83.35/bbl by 13:10 BST, its lowest level since 18 June, before it then rallied back up to the afternoon’s high of $84.30/bbl at 16:20 BST.
The September Brent futures contract has witnessed a weaker morning amid the flat price, falling from above $84.50/bbl at 06:45 BST to $84.10/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). Sentiment likely remains pressured following the poor Chinese economic data announcements from this week, with market players now awaiting cues of stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum this week. Furthermore, China is reportedly planning to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by methods such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, in addition to attempting to fire power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass. Russia’s exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.11mb/d in the four weeks ending 14 July, their lowest level since January 2024. The drop was predominantly in shipments from Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where exports dropped by 11% in two weeks. This afternoon, the market is likely to turn its attention to US macro data, notably US retail sales (released today at 13:30 BST), which will impact expectations around the timing of a policy rate cut by the Fed. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month and six-month futures spread stood at $0.90/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, with the exception being its dip to just below $84.50/bbl from $85.10/bbl between 14:30 BST and 14:45 BST.
The September Brent futures contract saw weakness early this morning, falling to $84.75/bbl at 08:40 BST. Since then, the Sep flat price found support and rallied to $85.10/bbl as of 11:20 BST but fell again to $84.95/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The HSFO complex saw a reasonable amount of strength this week, which was disproportionately focused in Asia, causing the 380 E/W to rally aggressively, with the Aug contract rising from $13/mt to $21/mt.
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
The Sep Brent futures contract initially weakened into the afternoon, falling to $84.30/bbl at 14:30 BST before rallying to $85.50/bbl by 17:05 BST….
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The September Brent futures flat price has seen an uptick following a gradual softening earlier in the morning.