Crude

Crude oil derivatives are essential to the global economy, powering transportation, manufacturing, and financial markets.

Crude oil is refined into petroleum products such as gasoline, naphtha, fuel oil, LPG and diesel.

Latest News

Brent Review: 5th July 2024

The crude oil futures market rallied to 4-month highs this week and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly increase.

This Week’s Target Price: $80-82/bbl

Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced the extension of their oil production cuts into 2025, with the possibility of unwinding voluntary cuts from October 2024.

This Week’s Target Price: $82-84/bbl

The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.

Brent Forecast Review: 17th May, 2024

July Brent futures saw a relatively rangebound week, and remains supported around the $83/bbl handles – where it has been trading since the beginning of May.

This Week’s Target Price: $85-87/bbl

The Jun Brent futures flat price witnessed a sharp rally last Friday (April 19), surging back into the $90/bbl region before easing off to $87.20/bbl handles the following evening.

This Week’s Target Price: $86-88/bbl

After a relatively rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $90/bbl mark and hitting highs of $92.18/bbl on Apr 12, Brent futures has opened weaker following the weekend’s events – retracing to below the $90/bbl mark.   

This Week’s Target Price: $91-93/bbl

Oil prices clocked in a momentous week with the June Brent futures contract jumping from $88.80/bbl at 17:00 BST on Apr 04 to the sanctified $90/bbl marker just two hours later and ending the week coming close to $92/bbl.

This Week’s Target Price: $90-92/bbl

After a rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $85/bbl mark, Brent futures strengthened in the lead up to the Easter bank holiday weekend. Support continues to be found, surpassing the $89/bbl mark on Apr 02.

This Week’s Target Price: $86-87/bbl

Oil prices registered some strength overnight on the back of support generated in the early hours of Asian trading with the Jun Brent futures climbing to $85.40/bbl at 03:20 GMT. The futures eased to $85.35/bbl come 09:20 GMT, but remain elevated compared to last Friday’s plummet into the sub-$85/bbl handles.

This Week’s Target Price: $87-88/bbl

After surging to four-month highs towards the end of last week, May Brent futures started the week in a similar vein, strengthening to briefly surpass the $86/bbl mark and record a near 5% increase week-on-week.

Dated Brent, the guy she told you not to worry about 

In a year of stagnant crude oil prices, our latest article delves into why traders are turning to a lesser-known segment of the oil market for lucrative opportunities. We examine the intricate dynamics driving recent developments in North Sea oil within this niche.

This Week’s Target Price: $83/bbl

The strength seen last week has continued, with May Brent futures starting the week in the $84/bbl handles, marking a 2.3% increase week-on-week.

Brent trades around $83/bbl as Uncertainty Supports Crude

The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $83/bbl mark initially before dipping below it and trading at $82.77/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar softening as prices were at $77.62/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

This Week’s Target Price: $85/bbl

Oil prices were seen hovering around the $82.75/bbl handles on Monday morning after last week witnessed the Brent futures for the Apr contract rise by over 1%, following a 6% gain in the previous week.

Brent Stays Above The $83/bbl Mark

The April Brent futures is trading at $83.21/bbl at the time of writing, 16:45 GMT. The contract traded down to a low of $81.97/bbl at noon and subsequently experienced a steady rise throughout the afternoon to settle around the $83/bbl mark.

Apr Brent futures holds above the $82/bbl mark

The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $82/bbl mark and trading at $82.72/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $77.66/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

This week’s target price: $78-80/bbl

Oil prices dipped slightly into Monday, back into $81/bbl handles, after seeing a 6% gain last week having fallen 9% a week previous, with heavy price swings very characteristic of the market at the moment.

Brent In Low $81/bbl-Handles With Gaza Optimism

The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively weak morning. Price action initially found stability in the high $81/bbl-handles, reaching highs of $81.98/bbl at 05:30 GMT.

Brent futures gained as the rumours fade

The Apr Brent futures contract has seen increased support overnight with prices strengthening above the $79/bbl mark and seen at $79.14/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $74/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Brent futures move sideways amid a mixed bag of news

The Apr Brent futures contract has been very volatile over the day and seems to be moving sideways amid a mixed bag of news. The contract was seen trading around the $77.50/bbl handles and dropped to a daily low of $76.63/bbl at 14:50 GMT. At 17:00 GMT (time of writing), prices were trading at $77.38/bbl.

Brent futures have been volatile today before dipping below $79/bbl

The Apr Brent futures contract has been very volatile over the day with prices constantly between the $81/bbl and the $81.50/bbl marks. At 17:00 GMT, it was trading at $81.30/bbl. At 18:00 GMT (time of writing), prices have dipped below the $80/bbl mark to be priced at $78.96/bbl.

Brent Back Above $81/bbl

The Brent futures flat price for the Apr contract has seen a minor rally this morning. Initially price action was seen weakening to $80.19/bbl at 08:40 GMT, however this spurred some buying interest, taking the contract to above the $81/bbl mark, reaching $81.19/bbl at 09:20 GMT.

EIA Shock Build Weakens Brent to sub $81/bbl

The Brent futures flat price for the April contract has seen a weaker afternoon, as prices fell from $82.23/bbl at 14:20 GMT to lows of $80.56/bbl at 16:45 GMT, before recovering slightly to just shy of the $81/bbl mark at 17:00 GMT.

Apr Brent Futures retraced below $82/bbl due to weak economic data

Brent futures have been coming off over the start of the day, with the Apr contract trading from highs of $82.46/bbl at 08:30 GMT to retrace to $81.73/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). WTI prices have followed the same trend, trading at highs of $77.74/bbl at 08:30 GMT and at $77.06/bbl at 10:00 GMT.

Geopolitical Risk Equilibrium

The past fortnight saw the soon-to-be-prompt Mar Brent/Dubai contract rise above 80c/bbl on Jan 16, before sinking to 50c/bbl by Jan 24 and then rise again to 60/bbl come Jan 29.

Brent stays strong trading around the $82/bbl mark

The Apr Brent futures contract has weakened throughout the day and traded from above the $83/bbl mark to be priced at $82.16/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). WTI Apr prices have also come off today, initially trading above the $78/bbl mark and currently at $77.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT.

Brent Comfortably Above $80/bbl Via Middle East Tensions

The Brent futures flat price for the Apr contract has seen a minor sell off this morning. Initial stability kept prices in the $83/bbl handles, before selling interest saw price action retrace downwards to $82.58/bbl at 09:55 GMT.

Mar Brent futures hit above the $81/bbl mark

The Mar Brent futures contract has yet again strengthened throughout the day, reaching almost two-month highs of $81.51/bbl at 16:50 GMT and later retraced to trade at $81.47/bbl at 17:05 GMT (time of writing). WTI prices also found strong support and traded at $76.60/bbl at 17:00 GMT.

Edge Updates

COT Report: Bears Show Their Claws

We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Trading Around $83.50bbl

The September Brent futures flat price has a mixed morning, ticking down from $83.65/bbl to a low of $83.45/bbl by 07:30 BST, before rallying to $84.10/bbl by 08:55 and then subsequently falling back down to $83.65/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).

Dubai Market Report – Banks Just Can’t Get Enough (Of Brent/Dubai)

A fortnight of two halves in Brent/Dubai, encapsulating the market’s duality in the year-to-date. The first week was relatively rangebound as prices hovered around -10c/bbl, with volumes low due to the US holiday. As Brent and WTI rallied, Dubai did not follow up as aggressively. This resulted in a massive rally where Aug jumped from -10c/bbl to +40c/bbl in a week, with the banks and funds being the buy-side aggressors.

European Window: Brent Ticks Below $84/bbl

The September Brent futures had a mixed afternoon, initially falling from $84.05/bbl to $83.35/bbl by 13:10 BST, its lowest level since 18 June, before it then rallied back up to the afternoon’s high of $84.30/bbl at 16:20 BST.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent softens below $85/bbl

The September Brent futures contract has witnessed a weaker morning amid the flat price, falling from above $84.50/bbl at 06:45 BST to $84.10/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). Sentiment likely remains pressured following the poor Chinese economic data announcements from this week, with market players now awaiting cues of stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum this week. Furthermore, China is reportedly planning to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by methods such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, in addition to attempting to fire power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass. Russia’s exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.11mb/d in the four weeks ending 14 July, their lowest level since January 2024. The drop was predominantly in shipments from Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where exports dropped by 11% in two weeks. This afternoon, the market is likely to turn its attention to US macro data, notably US retail sales (released today at 13:30 BST), which will impact expectations around the timing of a policy rate cut by the Fed. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month and six-month futures spread stood at $0.90/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent Hovers Around $85/bbl

The September Brent futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, with the exception being its dip to just below $84.50/bbl from $85.10/bbl between 14:30 BST and 14:45 BST.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent softens below $85/bbl

The September Brent futures contract saw weakness early this morning, falling to $84.75/bbl at 08:40 BST. Since then, the Sep flat price found support and rallied to $85.10/bbl as of 11:20 BST but fell again to $84.95/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing).

European Window: Brent Softens Below $86/bbl

The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent rallies amid easing US CPI

The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Brent softens to below $85/bbl

The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Softens to $85.33/bbl

The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Slides Down to $85.40/bbl

The September Brent Futures contract has seen a mixed morning, at first rallying up to $85.84/bbl at 07:00 BST before experiencing a sell-off down to $85.14/bbl at 10:45 BST and subsequently rebounding to $85.36/bbl at the time of writing (11:10 BST). In headlines today, Saudi crude exports to China are expected to rebound in August to around 46mb, driven by allocations to Unipec and Rongsheng Petrochina, after Saudi Arabia cut OSPs for August-loading barrels. This follows a drop in exports to 36mb in July, the lowest since March 2020, according to Kpler. In other news, Eni announced a significant natural gas discovery in the Gulf of Mexico, estimated at 300 to 400mb of oil equivalent. The discovery is in the Sureste Basin, where Eni has over 1.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent in resources and comes amongst plans to develop the area into a hub, leveraging several nearby discoveries. Also in the region, Mexico’s state energy major, Pemex, has been expanding gas-powered generation and increasing domestic gas resource development to reduce dependence on U.S. imports. Mexico recently updated its proven oil and gas reserves from last year to 8.383 billion barrels of oil equivalent from 5.978 billion barrels, with proven natural gas reserves rising to 12.297 trillion cubic feet from 11.029 trillion cubic feet. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.76/bbl and $3.47/bbl, respectively.

European Window: Sinusoidal Brent around $86/bbl

The September Brent futures flat price witnessed a choppy Monday afternoon, first rising to $86.25/bbl before falling to $85.75/bbl, where it remains as of 17:00 BST (time of writing). In the headlines, ExxonMobil said that lower natural gas prices and refining margins are expected to hit the oil major’s Q2 earnings. Devon Energy announced on Monday that it had entered a deal to acquire Grayson Mill Energy’s Williston basin business in a cash-and-stock deal worth $5 billion, as it aims to cash in on high stock valuations to grow acreage. US SPR crude inventories rose by 0.5mb w-o-w to 373.1mb last week. According to Argus, the freight cost between Russia’s Black Sea port of Novorossiysk to China has fallen to the lowest level since October. At the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/Mar Brent futures spreads are at $0.81/bbl and $3.61/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Slips Below $86.00/bbl

The September Brent futures contract has been on a downward trajectory this morning, inching lower from above $86/bbl at 08:00 BST to $85.85/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing). The persistent decline in prices following a peak of nearly $88/bbl last Friday highlights possible profit-taking by long-positioned players. In addition, the ports of Corpus Christi, Houston, Galveston, Freeport and Texas City reportedly shut operations as Hurricane Beryl intensified to Category 1 level alongside expectations of the hurricane strengthening further to Category 2. Kazakhstan’s energy ministry stated that the country will compensate for the overproduction of oil in 1H’24 by September 2025, with output exceeding its OPEC+ quota. Following recent disasters at energy storage facilities, Chinese authorities are planning to order large-scale fire safety investigations of these plants. In the eurozone, investor morale broke an eight-month streak of improvements, with Sentix’s index for the region falling to -7.3 points for July (prev: 0.3). Finally, at the time of writing, the Sep/Oct and Sep/March futures spreads stood at $0.80/bbl and $3.68/bbl, respectively.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Climbs to $87.60/bbl in Early Trade

The September Brent futures flat price witnessed an impressive rally early this morning. The contract moved sharply up from $87.15/bbl minutes before 08:00 BST to $87.60/MMBtu at 08:40 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract subsequently weakened and stands at $87.30/bbl as of 11:25 BST (time of writing)

TMNs: Whatever Floats Your Vote

What a week it is for European elections as the UK goes to the polls today, whilst France has the second round of its legislative election on Sunday. Ironically, the UK’s election will likely only have a Conservative effect on markets due to the scale and appearing inevitability of Labour’s landslide, predicted to be the greatest seen since 1832(!!!).

European Window: Brent crude oil rallies to 4-month highs

The September Brent futures flat price rose over the afternoon to its highest level since April. It rallied from around $86.75/bbl at 12:45 BST to $87.55/bbl at 17:25 (time of writing). Saudi Aramco has reduced the official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light crude oil for Asia to $1.80/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average benchmark, down by $0.60/bbl for August.

COT Report: Have Bears Received the Upgrade Package?

We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise above $87/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week? See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as 6 one to watch for the week ahead. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.

Dubai Market Report – Not So Easy (OS)Peasy

It seems like the flipping of the calendar month has brought with it a debilitation of Dubai’s strength. The prompt contract has returned to what would be arguably ‘normal’ positives, considering the makeup of the barrel.

Up-Dated Supplementary Report – A Crude Display of Strength

The Dated market entered July on a strong note, with the Bal-July DFL shooting up above $1/bbl. Brent spreads also continue to be elevated, with the Sep/Oct futures spread briefly shooting above $0.90/bbl on 01 July before retracing lower to $0.85/bbl.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Sep Brent Climbs to $87.20/bbl

The September Brent futures contract saw a strong morning, trading from around $86.80/bbl at 8:00 BST down to a low of $86.60/bbl at 08:40 BST before rising steadily over the remainder of the morning to reach $87.24/bbl at the time of writing (11:00 BST)…