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Rebalancing in High Volatility We expect Brent prices to remain in the low $80/bbls this week – despite a less saturated buy-side market – because of a slew of refreshed bearish bets from funds and negative net positioning by CTAs.
Lucky Number 85 Price action in September Brent crude futures was resilient this week, oscillating around the $85/bbl handle. Brent came off to $83.50/bbl on 16 July before ascending above $85/bbl on 17 July, settling around that level in the
Brent crude futures opened on Monday morning and has traded rangebound around $85/bbl in its Sep’24 contract.
The crude oil futures market rallied to 4-month highs this week and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly increase.
We expect Brent to inch up over the week with speculative positioning that is less saturated, following what appears to be a squeeze of the overly short market.
Over the weekend, OPEC+ announced the extension of their oil production cuts into 2025, with the possibility of unwinding voluntary cuts from October 2024.
The prompt Brent futures flat price strengthened to $84.30/bbl at the start of the week to May 20 (as of 08:15 BST), supported by political uncertainty in vital oil-producing economies in the Middle East. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, previously seen as a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed in a helicopter crash near the Azerbaijan border.
July Brent futures saw a relatively rangebound week, and remains supported around the $83/bbl handles – where it has been trading since the beginning of May.
The July Brent futures contract has now reached the $83.30/bbl handle, with bearish sentiment continuing to permeate into markets.
The Jun Brent futures contract continued to see choppy price action into the afternoon, predominantly oscillating within the range of $85.95/bbl and $86.80/bbl.
The Jun Brent futures flat price witnessed a sharp rally last Friday (April 19), surging back into the $90/bbl region before easing off to $87.20/bbl handles the following evening.
After a relatively rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $90/bbl mark and hitting highs of $92.18/bbl on Apr 12, Brent futures has opened weaker following the weekend’s events – retracing to below the $90/bbl mark.
Oil prices clocked in a momentous week with the June Brent futures contract jumping from $88.80/bbl at 17:00 BST on Apr 04 to the sanctified $90/bbl marker just two hours later and ending the week coming close to $92/bbl.
After a rangebound week, with Jun Brent futures oscillating around the $85/bbl mark, Brent futures strengthened in the lead up to the Easter bank holiday weekend. Support continues to be found, surpassing the $89/bbl mark on Apr 02.
Oil prices registered some strength overnight on the back of support generated in the early hours of Asian trading with the Jun Brent futures climbing to $85.40/bbl at 03:20 GMT. The futures eased to $85.35/bbl come 09:20 GMT, but remain elevated compared to last Friday’s plummet into the sub-$85/bbl handles.
After surging to four-month highs towards the end of last week, May Brent futures started the week in a similar vein, strengthening to briefly surpass the $86/bbl mark and record a near 5% increase week-on-week.
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The strength seen last week has continued, with May Brent futures starting the week in the $84/bbl handles, marking a 2.3% increase week-on-week.
The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $83/bbl mark initially before dipping below it and trading at $82.77/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar softening as prices were at $77.62/bbl at 10:00 GMT.
Oil prices were seen hovering around the $82.75/bbl handles on Monday morning after last week witnessed the Brent futures for the Apr contract rise by over 1%, following a 6% gain in the previous week.
The April Brent futures is trading at $83.21/bbl at the time of writing, 16:45 GMT. The contract traded down to a low of $81.97/bbl at noon and subsequently experienced a steady rise throughout the afternoon to settle around the $83/bbl mark.
Prompt Brent futures flat price has seen a much stronger afternoon. Prices were supported from $80.74/bbl at 11:40 GMT to $83.14/bbl at 16:45 GMT.
The Apr Brent futures contract continued to be supported overnight with prices holding above the $82/bbl mark and trading at $82.72/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $77.66/bbl at 10:00 GMT.
Oil prices dipped slightly into Monday, back into $81/bbl handles, after seeing a 6% gain last week having fallen 9% a week previous, with heavy price swings very characteristic of the market at the moment.
The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively weak morning. Price action initially found stability in the high $81/bbl-handles, reaching highs of $81.98/bbl at 05:30 GMT.
The Apr Brent futures contract has seen increased support overnight with prices strengthening above the $79/bbl mark and seen at $79.14/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). Apr WTI saw a similar upward momentum with prices at $74/bbl at 10:00 GMT.
The Apr Brent futures contract has been very volatile over the day and seems to be moving sideways amid a mixed bag of news. The contract was seen trading around the $77.50/bbl handles and dropped to a daily low of $76.63/bbl at 14:50 GMT. At 17:00 GMT (time of writing), prices were trading at $77.38/bbl.
The Apr Brent futures contract has been very volatile over the day with prices constantly between the $81/bbl and the $81.50/bbl marks. At 17:00 GMT, it was trading at $81.30/bbl. At 18:00 GMT (time of writing), prices have dipped below the $80/bbl mark to be priced at $78.96/bbl.
The Brent futures flat price for the Apr contract has seen a minor rally this morning. Initially price action was seen weakening to $80.19/bbl at 08:40 GMT, however this spurred some buying interest, taking the contract to above the $81/bbl mark, reaching $81.19/bbl at 09:20 GMT.
The Brent futures flat price for the April contract has seen a weaker afternoon, as prices fell from $82.23/bbl at 14:20 GMT to lows of $80.56/bbl at 16:45 GMT, before recovering slightly to just shy of the $81/bbl mark at 17:00 GMT.
Brent futures have been coming off over the start of the day, with the Apr contract trading from highs of $82.46/bbl at 08:30 GMT to retrace to $81.73/bbl at 10:00 GMT (time of writing). WTI prices have followed the same trend, trading at highs of $77.74/bbl at 08:30 GMT and at $77.06/bbl at 10:00 GMT.
The past fortnight saw the soon-to-be-prompt Mar Brent/Dubai contract rise above 80c/bbl on Jan 16, before sinking to 50c/bbl by Jan 24 and then rise again to 60/bbl come Jan 29.
The Apr Brent futures contract has weakened throughout the day and traded from above the $83/bbl mark to be priced at $82.16/bbl at 17:00 GMT (time of writing). WTI Apr prices have also come off today, initially trading above the $78/bbl mark and currently at $77.02/bbl at 17:00 GMT.
Apr Brent Futures started the week supported above $82/bbl.
The Brent futures flat price for the Apr contract has seen a minor sell off this morning. Initial stability kept prices in the $83/bbl handles, before selling interest saw price action retrace downwards to $82.58/bbl at 09:55 GMT.
The October Brent futures flat price has had an extremely mixed afternoon, initially falling from $81.15/bbl at 12:00 BST to the afternoon’s low of $79.45/bbl at 15:35 BST, before it then saw a retracement up to $80.20/bbl, where it sits as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
The October Brent futures contract has been consistently declining all morning, falling from $81.60/bbl at 07:50 BST to $81.05/bbl as of 11:20 BST (time of writing)….
The soon-to-be-prompt October Brent futures contract dipped to $79.55/bbl at 14:00 BST, where it found support and climbed to $81.10/bbl as of 17:35 BST (time of writing)
It’s the dawn of a new era in oil and everywhere else. US President Joe Biden stepped down to pave the way for a Trump vs Harris election riddled with all things Brat and Hannibal Lecter. In oil, the September Brent futures contract, unburdened from what had been the rangebound trading of last week, saw the beginning of a violent throwing-up.
The Sep’24 Brent futures flat price has been under downward pressure this morning, falling from $81.40/bbl at 09:25 BST to $80.28/bbl at 11:35 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract weakened to $81/bbl at 16:05 BST, where it found support and sharply rallied to $82.20/bbl at 16:35 BST. The benchmark crude futures contract has since simmered off to $81.90/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price fall below $81/bbl and an unexpectedly large 5.57mb draw in US gasoline inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The September Brent futures flat price has been on an upward trajectory this morning, where despite some choppiness it has seen a 50c uptick from $81.15/bbl at 06:50 BST to $81.70/bbl, where it sits as of 11:00 BST (time of writing).
What goes up, must come down, and it really feels like we have reached an inflection point in Dated Brent, or inflexion point as the Americans spell it. As usual, it is all eyes on America, and what the changing political tides will mean for the oil market, geopolitics, and the financial markets at large. But that is a discussion reserved for Q4. The Dated Brent market is all about the here and now, and that is what we will focus on.
The September Brent futures flat price has capitulated this afternoon, falling from $82.30/bbl at 12:10 BST down to a low of $80.50/bbl at 16:55 BST, before retracing up marginally to $80.75/bbl, where it sits as of 17:05 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a relatively weak morning, trading down from highs around $82.76/bbl at 09:30 BST to a daily low of $82.24/bbl, where it currently sits at the time of writing (11:20 BST).
The September Brent futures flat price has had an afternoon of two distinct halves, initially falling from $82.40/bbl at 12:30 BST to $81.65/bbl by $81.65/bbl, before then recovering these losses to sit at $82.30/bbl as of 17:15 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract surpassed the $85/bbl handle again this morning, sitting at $85.30/bbl at 09:00 BST, but simmered off to $84.90/bbl by 11:25 BST (time of writing)….
The September Brent futures flat price has crumbled this afternoon following an initial tick up to $85.10/bbl at 13:45 BST.
The September Brent futures contract surpassed the $85/bbl handle again this morning, sitting at $85.30/bbl at 09:00 BST, but simmered off to $84.90/bbl by 11:25 BST (time of writing)….
God bless America; firing up WTI spreads like an AR and waking up in the morning on Wednesday and buying the hell out of Brent, flipping pricing like Vance’s opinion on Trump.
The September Brent futures contract strengthened back to the $85/bbl handle around 14:20 BST before again weakening to $84.40/bbl at 15:45 BST. However, the benchmark crude futures contract found support at this level and climbed to $85.30/bbl as of 17:10 BST (time of writing)…..
The September Brent Futures has seen a weaker morning, after rising to $85.80/bbl at 08:00 BST, the contract corrected downwards to a low of $84.96/bbl at 10:30 BST, and is trading at $85.06/bbl at the time of writing (11:05 BST). Of particular note in price action were the moves in spreads, with WTI/Brent Futures only discounting -$3.60/bbl, contrasting -$4.00/bbl yesterday morning, as WTI prompt spreads firmed up faster than Brent.
We’ve seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The Sep Brent futures contract strengthened this evening, climbing from $83.70/bbl at 11:20 BST to $85.10/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures flat price has a mixed morning, ticking down from $83.65/bbl to a low of $83.45/bbl by 07:30 BST, before rallying to $84.10/bbl by 08:55 and then subsequently falling back down to $83.65/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).
A fortnight of two halves in Brent/Dubai, encapsulating the market’s duality in the year-to-date. The first week was relatively rangebound as prices hovered around -10c/bbl, with volumes low due to the US holiday. As Brent and WTI rallied, Dubai did not follow up as aggressively. This resulted in a massive rally where Aug jumped from -10c/bbl to +40c/bbl in a week, with the banks and funds being the buy-side aggressors.
The September Brent futures had a mixed afternoon, initially falling from $84.05/bbl to $83.35/bbl by 13:10 BST, its lowest level since 18 June, before it then rallied back up to the afternoon’s high of $84.30/bbl at 16:20 BST.
The Dated market has retained its strength well; although there was some weakness from a sell-off in a flat price. There is good buying in CFDs and rolls from trade houses, although liquidity can be thin.
The September Brent futures contract has witnessed a weaker morning amid the flat price, falling from above $84.50/bbl at 06:45 BST to $84.10/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). Sentiment likely remains pressured following the poor Chinese economic data announcements from this week, with market players now awaiting cues of stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum this week. Furthermore, China is reportedly planning to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by methods such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, in addition to attempting to fire power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass. Russia’s exports of crude oil fell to an average of 3.11mb/d in the four weeks ending 14 July, their lowest level since January 2024. The drop was predominantly in shipments from Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where exports dropped by 11% in two weeks. This afternoon, the market is likely to turn its attention to US macro data, notably US retail sales (released today at 13:30 BST), which will impact expectations around the timing of a policy rate cut by the Fed. Finally, at the time of writing, the front-month and six-month futures spread stood at $0.90/bbl and $3.75/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, with the exception being its dip to just below $84.50/bbl from $85.10/bbl between 14:30 BST and 14:45 BST.
The September Brent futures contract saw weakness early this morning, falling to $84.75/bbl at 08:40 BST. Since then, the Sep flat price found support and rallied to $85.10/bbl as of 11:20 BST but fell again to $84.95/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
The September Brent futures contract fell to $84.75/bbl at 14:40 BST, following which it climbed to $85.50/bbl at 16:10 BST and ultimately softened to $85.20/bbl at 17:20 BST (time of writing).
The September Brent Futures contract has seen a weaker morning, trading down from $85.77/bbl at 07:00 BST to a low of $85.20/bbl at 10:20 BST, before retracing upwards to print at $85.33/bbl at the time of writing (11:30 BST). In headlines today, the IEA has released its monthly oil report, maintaining its bearish global oil demand forecast. For this year, demand growth is expected to increase slightly to 970kbpd, reaching an average of 103.05mbpd, driven by increased consumption from developing nations. The organization also revised its 2025 oil-demand growth projection down to 980kbpd from the previous 1mbpd, with total demand now anticipated to average 104mbpd. This starkly contrasts with OPEC’s more bullish views, released yesterday. While the IEA still sees a global balance deficit on average in 2024, its view tips into a surplus for 2025. In other news, data from Kpler reveals a substantial decline in crude oil exports from major OPEC+ producers in June, primarily due to weak demand in Asian markets and increased domestic consumption in the Middle East. Notably, Saudi Arabia’s exports plummeted by 930kbpd to 5.42mbpd, marking the lowest level since at least 2013. At the time of writing, the front and 6-month Brent Futures spreads are at $0.89/bbl and $3.90/bbl, respectively.
The Sep Brent futures contract initially weakened into the afternoon, falling to $84.30/bbl at 14:30 BST before rallying to $85.50/bbl by 17:05 BST….
We’ve seen the Aug Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and a large, unexpected draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?
The September Brent futures flat price has seen an uptick following a gradual softening earlier in the morning.
Sentiment in Dated Brent remained hopeful in the week leading up to the August Brent futures expiry and sustained this strength for a few days following expiry, after which things cratered very quickly.
