810937516

The Officials: Crude rallies, but focus on the cracks

13h ago
In 'The Officials', Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values ...

Latest News

Although the market and the narrative want to be bullish, there's no impetus for it to be there. It's a weak week in Brent futures, within in touching distance of $88/bbl. We've seen both long and short prod/merc in Brent 200mb in 2 weeks in Sep 0I. Martha also explains why bearish economic data from China is adding to the pressure of oil prices. 

Greg, James, Martha and Vincent discuss Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia having to submit compensation plans for exceeding quotas in 2024. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will assess compliance on August 1, and Iraq’s management and its relationship with the KRG are crucial for OPEC+ compliance and global oil stability. While this isn't massive news just yet, there's so much lying beneath the surface of this story, which is leading to people getting nervous on the Producer side as a summer rally is yet to come to fruition. 

The sentiment of extra supply is being supported by Crude loadings from Guyana, which are planned at 21 million barrels, (or 700,000bb/d) in September, according to programs seen by Bloomberg. This daily volume will be a new record, compared with a revised 613,000 b/d in August. The July volume was also revised higher to 452,000 b/d.

Looking to Macro News, there was disappointing data out of China with GDP 4.7% YoY (est 5.1%) retail sales 2.0% (est 3.3%). CPI 0.2% YoY, PPI –0.8%. House prices in China fell 4.5% YoY in June, the most in 9 years. U.S. prices 28bp cuts in September, 67bp cuts by year end. Weak CPI and the Fed is now concentrating on the weaker economy. 

The team discuss Trump's impact on oil and suspect he will want to be bearish and take credit for lowering gasoline prices with a target range of between $60/bbl and $65/bbl, whilst simultaneously putting pressure on the central bank in hopes to restimulate the economy. 

The trade idea for this weak is to buy heating oil. With such a heavy contango in the heating oil spreads it's a good risk reward-trade to buy. We're also seeing strong harvesting in corn and wheat, so if that continues, we'll most likely be seeing some more demand there.

oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #election #news #economics #finance

Although the market and the narrative want to be bullish, there's no impetus for it to be there. It's a weak week in Brent futures, within in touching distance of $88/bbl. We've seen both long and short prod/merc in Brent 200mb in 2 weeks in Sep 0I. Martha also explains why bearish economic data from China is adding to the pressure of oil prices.

Greg, James, Martha and Vincent discuss Iraq, Kazakhstan, and Russia having to submit compensation plans for exceeding quotas in 2024. The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will assess compliance on August 1, and Iraq’s management and its relationship with the KRG are crucial for OPEC+ compliance and global oil stability. While this isn't massive news just yet, there's so much lying beneath the surface of this story, which is leading to people getting nervous on the Producer side as a summer rally is yet to come to fruition.

The sentiment of extra supply is being supported by Crude loadings from Guyana, which are planned at 21 million barrels, (or 700,000bb/d) in September, according to programs seen by Bloomberg. This daily volume will be a new record, compared with a revised 613,000 b/d in August. The July volume was also revised higher to 452,000 b/d.

Looking to Macro News, there was disappointing data out of China with GDP 4.7% YoY (est 5.1%) retail sales 2.0% (est 3.3%). CPI 0.2% YoY, PPI –0.8%. House prices in China fell 4.5% YoY in June, the most in 9 years. U.S. prices 28bp cuts in September, 67bp cuts by year end. Weak CPI and the Fed is now concentrating on the weaker economy.

The team discuss Trump's impact on oil and suspect he will want to be bearish and take credit for lowering gasoline prices with a target range of between $60/bbl and $65/bbl, whilst simultaneously putting pressure on the central bank in hopes to restimulate the economy.

The trade idea for this weak is to buy heating oil. With such a heavy contango in the heating oil spreads it's a good risk reward-trade to buy. We're also seeing strong harvesting in corn and wheat, so if that continues, we'll most likely be seeing some more demand there.

oott #oil #oilandgas #energy #derivatives #trading #trader #podcast #election #news #economics #finance

YouTube Video VVVteUJlLVI3RG82WkdXTHlhU3RTb3NnLlNzR204ZFhFRlJF

Desperately Searching for a Bullish Narrative | S6 E35

World Of Oil Derivatives 14 hours ago

Upcoming events

Most Popular

COT Report: Bears Show Their Claws

13h ago
We've seen the Sep Brent Futures flat price rise back above $85/bbl and an unexpectedly large 4.9mb draw in US crude inventories. Where will markets head this week?

European Window: Brent Rallies Alongside EIA Draw

14h ago
The Sep Brent futures contract strengthened this evening, climbing from $83.70/bbl at 11:20 BST to $85.10/bbl at 17:35 BST (time of writing).

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Trading Around $83.50bbl

20h ago
The September Brent futures flat price has a mixed morning, ticking down from $83.65/bbl to a low of $83.45/bbl by 07:30 BST, before rallying to $84.10/bbl by 08:55 and then subsequently falling back down to $83.65/bbl as of 11:10 BST (time of writing).

Dubai Market Report – Banks Just Can’t Get Enough (Of Brent/Dubai)

2d ago
A fortnight of two halves in Brent/Dubai, encapsulating the market's duality in the year-to-date. The first week was relatively rangebound as prices hovered around -10c/bbl, with volumes low due to the US holiday. As Brent and WTI rallied, Dubai did not follow up as aggressively. This resulted in a massive rally where Aug jumped from -10c/bbl to +40c/bbl in a week, with the banks and funds being the buy-side aggressors.

European Window: Brent Ticks Below $84/bbl

2d ago
The September Brent futures had a mixed afternoon, initially falling from $84.05/bbl to $83.35/bbl by 13:10 BST, its lowest level since 18 June, before it then rallied back up to the afternoon’s high of $84.30/bbl at 16:20 BST.

Up-Dated Supplementary Report – It’s R-oil-y Strong!

2d ago
The Dated market has retained its strength well; although there was some weakness from a sell-off in a flat price. There is good buying in CFDs and rolls from trade houses, although liquidity can be thin.

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent softens below $85/bbl

2d ago
The September Brent futures contract has witnessed a weaker morning amid the flat price, falling from above $84.50/bbl at 06:45 BST to $84.10/bbl as of 11:30 BST (time of writing). Sentiment likely remains pressured following the poor Chinese economic data announcements from this week, with market players now awaiting cues of stronger stimulus measures at the Third Plenum this week. Furthermore, China is reportedly planning to cut carbon emissions in its coal power industry by methods such as carbon capture, utilisation and storage, in addition to attempting to fire power plants using coal mixed with either green ammonia or biomass. ...

European Window: Brent Hovers Around $85/bbl

3d ago
The September Brent futures flat price has had a fairly flat afternoon, with the exception being its dip to just below $84.50/bbl from $85.10/bbl between 14:30 BST and 14:45 BST.

Events

Jul 22, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Aug24 WTI Expiry
in 5d
Jul 31, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Sep24 Brent Expiry
in 14d
Aug 8, 2024
16:00 UTC+0:00
Aug 12, 2024
11:00 UTC+0:00
Aug24 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 26d
Aug 20, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Sep24 WTI Expiry
in 34d
Aug 26, 2024
00:00 UTC+0:00
Aug 30, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Oct24 Brent Expiry
in 44d
Sep 2, 2024
04:00 UTC+0:00
CME Holiday
in 46d
05:00 UTC+0:00
Sep 12, 2024
11:00 UTC+0:00
Sep24 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 57d
Sep 20, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Oct24 WTI Expiry
in 65d
Sep 30, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Nov24 Brent Expiry
in 75d
Oct 10, 2024
11:00 UTC+0:00
Oct24 ICE Gasoil Expiry
in 85d
Oct 22, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Nov24 WTI Expiry
in 3m
Oct 30, 2024
16:00 UTC+0:00
Oct 31, 2024
19:30 UTC+0:00
Dec24 Brent Expiry
in 3m