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The Officials: Can futures keep Trumping physical?

15h ago
As the US elections peek over the horizon and Trump serves up Maccies fries, the oil markets trudge on. We were on tenterhooks awaiting the ...

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This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 21st of October. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live. 

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.
 
They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.
 
In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.
 
As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.
 
Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800.

#macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #Nvidia #stockmarket #stocks #oott #oilandgas #trading #markets #marketanalysis #recession #derivatives #derivativestrading #thefed #housing #housingmarket #gold #china #germany #uk #us #economy #economics #ElonMusk #Musk #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election #Bitcoin #China #Macro #Housing #HousingPrices #housing

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 21st of October. Tune in Mondays at 12:30pm UK time to watch Macro Mondays live.

On today's episode, James Brodie and James Todd dive into the latest macroeconomic developments shaping global markets. The U.S. housing market faces steep challenges as mortgage applications drop by 17%, and the 30-year mortgage rate hits 7.25% - the highest since July. Across the Atlantic, UK house prices show slower growth at 0.3% month-on-month.

They also cover key updates from the Federal Reserve, with Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic emphasising that rate cuts are not imminent despite a strong labour market and declining inflation.

In China, the government moves to double its loans for unfinished properties to $562 billion in efforts to stabilise the housing sector, while liquidity measures and interbank rates signal ongoing stress in the financial system. With China’s credit growth slowing, they explore what this means for global investors.

As the U.S. election draws closer, they examine Trump’s growing lead in prediction markets and discuss the impact on the financial landscape as well as Elon Musk's controversial support for Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign.

Finally, tune in for insights into the crypto market as Bitcoin trends higher but faces resistance at $71,800 and $73,800.

#macro #macronews #finance #inflation #deflation #Nvidia #stockmarket #stocks #oott #oilandgas #trading #markets #marketanalysis #recession #derivatives #derivativestrading #thefed #housing #housingmarket #gold #china #germany #uk #us #economy #economics #ElonMusk #Musk #Trump #Election #Harris #2024Election #Bitcoin #China #Macro #Housing #HousingPrices #housing

YouTube Video VVVteUJlLVI3RG82WkdXTHlhU3RTb3NnLklfeGRfTXd3N0JB

Macro Mondays | REPLAY | Elon Musk's Controversial Support for Trump | 21|10|24

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European Window: Brent Trades Down To $74.15/bbl

16h ago
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China ...

Brent Forecast: 21st October 2024

18h ago
Geopolitical risk: down but not out  We see a firm Brent complex this week. We forecast Dec’24 Brent futures to end the week in the mid-70s, and we anticipate a ceiling of around $78, and $73/bbl acting as a floor. We expect oil prices to be buffeted by the following factors:  The drop in volatility following last week’s sell-off was especially noticeable, with perceptions of geopolitical risk receding somewhat and prices largely rangebound around $74.50/bbl between 16-18 Oct. However, this can easily change on a dime. A leak from the US military regarding Israel’s retaliatory plans vs Iran brought back ...

European Window: Brent Moves Up To $74.10/bbl

22h ago
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract found strength this morning, trading at $73.29/bbl at 07:00 BST and increasing to $74.10/bbl at 11:00 BST (time of writing). Price action saw upward movement this morning amid a new wave of Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah-affiliated financial institutions, heightening concerns that Israel is expanding its offensive beyond military infrastructure. Meanwhile, satellite imagery has shown that Iran has partially filled its Jask oil terminal with crude oil, as the country seeks to reduce its reliance on the Strait of Hormuz for oil exports. In the news today, according to the General Administration of Customs (GACC), China ...

European Window: Brent Falls to $73.00/bbl

4d ago
Dec’24 Brent futures weakened this afternoon, from over $74.50/bbl at 13:20 BST to $72.55/bbl at 16:25 BS, recovering $73.25/bbl at 17:10 BST (time of writing). Total is planning a shutdown of its largest European refinery, in Antwerp, in 2025. This facility, which is the company’s biggest oil-processing plant in Europe with a capacity of around 340kb/d, will undergo maintenance starting in September. The scheduled work will focus on the crude processing units and one of the refinery's two fluid catalytic crackers (FCCs). China's diesel exports fell to 350kt in September, the lowest since June 2023, due to limited shipment quotas ...

Brent Review: 14th September 2024

4d ago
The Dec’24 Brent crude futures contract cratered by $3 overnight Monday (14 Oct) from around $77.50/bbl to $74.50/bbl, before trading rangebound for the remainder of the week between $74/bbl and $75/bbl. Prices are set for their biggest weekly decline since the week of 2 Sep. The key drivers influencing this week’s price action include:  Crude oil prices slumped sharply on Monday evening following a Washington Post headline that Israel was intending to target Iranian military sites instead of its oil or nuclear facilities. Prices were previously supported as the market anticipated a retaliation by Israel against Iran, which may disrupt ...

Overnight & Singapore Window: Brent Declines to $74.00/bbl Level

4d ago
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract saw weakness this morning, trading from $74.76/bbl at 07:00 BST and declining to $74.06/bbl at 11:15 BST (time of writing). Prices lacked strength this morning amid reports of Chinese oil refining falling to a three-month low of 58.7 million tons, a reduction of 1.6% y/y, according to Bloomberg. In the news today, Israeli authorities have released a drone video allegedly displaying Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dying in the ruins of building in southern Gaza, as per Reuters. Following Sinwar’s death, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised to continue conflict in Gaza and Lebanon. In ...

Trader Meeting Notes: Geopolitical Merry-Go Round

5d ago
Dec'24 Brent futures fell from close to $80.00/bbl to $74.00/bbl this week as the geopolitical risk premium was priced-out and back in at a rate that puts no one's mind to rest. As soon as part of the premium has been chipped out of the price, mid to low-70s were not far behind, and they must feel at home. Volatility has dropped as $74.00/bbl has proven less mean-reverting and more mean-unwavering, with Dec'24 trading between $73.50/bbl and $75.00/bbl for a few days. The Washington Post seems confident in Iran's energy security, although this was a bit undermined by Netanyahu purposefully ...

European Window: Brent Weakens To $74.10/bbl

5d ago
The Dec’24 Brent futures contract strengthened marginally this afternoon, trading at $73.96/bbl at 12:00 BST and reaching $74.20/bbl at 17:50 BST (time of writing). We saw volatility in price action throughout the afternoon amid the release of the IEA October oil market report, alongside concerns of conflict escalation in the Middle East. In the news today, the IEA has released their oil market report for October, showing global oil demand is set to increase by just 862kb/d this year due to decelerating demand in China. This latest estimate is down from the 903kb/d forecast published in the September IEA report. ...

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Oct 22, 2024
18:30 UTC+0:00
Nov24 WTI Expiry
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API Stats Release
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Oct 23, 2024
07:00 UTC+0:00
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14:30 UTC+0
EIA Weekly Stats Release
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Oct 24, 2024
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ARA Independent Storage
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21:30 UTC+0
API Stats Release
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Oct 30, 2024
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
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15:30 UTC+0
EIA Weekly Stats Release
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16:00 UTC+0:00
Oct 31, 2024
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
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19:30 UTC+0:00
Dec24 Brent Expiry
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Nov 5, 2024
21:30 UTC+0
API Stats Release
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Nov 6, 2024
08:00 UTC+0:00
Fujairah Inventories
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15:30 UTC+0
EIA Weekly Stats Release
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Nov 7, 2024
15:15 UTC+0:00
ARA Independent Storage
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Fed Interest Rate Decision
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