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Daily Trade Idea: 16/07/2024

With European VLSFO in backwardation in the prompt months, physical traders will note that the arb is open and we should see VLSFO from Europe start to flow to Asia.

Daily Trade Idea: 15/07/2024

Long Aug/Sep 380 China’s average daily oil refining throughput slowed in June, a third month of declines, after more domestic plants shut their operations for maintenance. The Asian nation processed 58.32 million tons of crude last month, 4.3% lower than

Daily Trade Idea: 12/07/2024

Long Aug TA Arb @  9.90c/gal After the recent sell off in the front TA Arb we have started to see some support at these levels and expect buyside interest to enter the market.

Brent Review

TARGET: $86.00/bbl – $88.00/bbl PRICE: $86.10/bbl Party in the USA? Brent appears confident to break a four-time streak of ending the week stronger than where it began, amid a fall from last week’s rally to a four-month high. Despite this,

Daily Trade Idea: 11/07/2024

SHORT SEP 3.5 BRG CRK Temperatures in Europe have been well above seasonal norms and there’s little sign of that changing anytime soon. Looking further into the future, Sweden’s largest refiner says climate change is making fuel production harder. Temperatures

Daily Trade Idea: 10/07/2024

LONG AUG VISCO Visco have been weakened lately by poor physical demand and trade house selling.  It has seen some recovery this week with better demand for 180, as cooling demand has increased due to hot weather in the Middle

09/07/2024 Trade Idea

This week Research Analyst Mita Chaturvedi brings you trades in Asian High Sulfur Fuel Oil and Northwestern European propane. Firstly, we take a short-positioned view of Singapore 380 fuel oil spreads. Singapore’s commercial stockpiles of heavy distillates have increased 1.6%

Daily Trade Idea: 09/07/2024

Long Aug/Sep 380 spread : Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380 spread. Hot weather in the Middle East and Persian Gulf were expected to maintain power generator. End-consumers look to cool their houses and buildings. We believe demand for

Daily Trade Idea: 08/07/2024

Long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges : Our trade idea is to long Sep/Oct 3.5 Barges. Since 1st of July we have seen bullish movements with 3.5 Barge spreads, trading from $8/mt up to now currently trading at $11/mt. We believe spreads will

Brent Review: 5th July 2024

The crude oil futures market rallied to 4-month highs this week and is on track for its fourth consecutive weekly increase.

Daily Trade Idea: 05/07/2024

Long Aug 3.5 Barge crack: Our trade idea is to long Aug 3.5 Barge crack – recently we have seen weakness with the barge crack, trading down from -$7.60/bbl to -$8.90/bbl. However there has been a slight retracement back up

Daily Trade Idea: 04/07/2024

Long Aug/Sep 380: Our trade idea is to long Aug/Sep 380. We have seen continuous rally of Aug/Sep 380 spread since 1st of July. We believe there is still bullish momentum pushing the spreads up higher. For brokerage services across

Daily Trade Idea: 03/07/2024

Long Aug 380 EW: Barge cracks are under pressure due to continued deferred barge crack selling. We think aug 380 EW will be supported on the back of this. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly

Daily Trade Idea: 01/07/2024

We have seen Aug 380 crack has been trading between trading between -$6.65/bbl and -$5.85/bbl since 21st June, showing no real directional movement. Aug 380 crack is trading at a technical support level alongside RSI heading towards oversold territory, we

Brent Review: 24th June 2024

TARGET PRICE: $83/bbl – $85/bbl PRICE: $85.80/bbl Return of the pre-weekend bulls? On Monday, we forecast short-term bearishness to take the benchmark Brent crude futures to $83-85/bbl by the end of this week. We now see the September futures contract

Daily Trade Idea: 28/06/2024

Short July 0.5 Sing crack Recently, the crack showed significant strength, trading up to $11.45/bbl due to concerns about potential supply issues following a fire at the Dangote refinery. However, Bloomberg reported that the incident was minor and the refinery

Daily Trade Idea: 27/06/2024

Short July 92/MOPJ 92 has been struggling to keep up with the recent strength in RBOB and there is still a firm bullish trend in naphtha. We think this will continue into the end of the month so we expect

Daily Trade Idea: 25/06/2024

Long Q3 EBOB Crack After initial weakness this morning hanging over from yesterday, we think it’s a good opportunity to try and fade that weakness and take an opposing position. For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our

The Officials: Dated Brent: The squeezes are back!

In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.

Brent Forecast: 24th June 2024

Too close to the sun? The prompt Brent futures flat price contract recorded great strength last week. The contract began the week at $84.25/bbl and rallied past the $86/bbl handle on 21 June – where it met resistance. We now see the contract hovering around $85.30/bbl at 08:30 BST (time of writing), although we anticipate short-term bearishness to take the benchmark crude futures to $83-85/bbl by Friday.  This expectation emerges out of three key factors:

Daily Trade Idea: 24/06/2024

Short July Arb At these levels we anticipate some physical sell side interest on the front arb, with arb opportunities becoming more favourable.  For brokerage services across the barrel and to receive our weekly trade ideas: insight@onyxcapitaladvisory.com

Brent Review: 17th June 2024

TARGET PRICE: $82/bbl – $84/bbl PRICE: $85/bbl Is Summer Demand Finally Here? The crude oil futures market is on track for its second consecutive weekly gain on signs of better demand as Brent futures rallied to seven-week highs. We initially

The Officials: Hey, do you want a piece of me?

In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.

Daily Trade Idea: 19/06/2024

Short July 0.5% Sing Crack With cargos of LSFO arriving from Dangote refinery in Nigeria we have seen cracks come off. Demand is still tepid at best, so we are following the trend with this trade. For brokerage services across

Daily Trade Idea: 18/06/2024

Short July/Aug 0.5 Sing Oil refiners across Asia are bringing back some idled capacity after maintenance, As much as 400,000 barrels of daily capacity, or more than 10% of what was taken down last month, will return to service in

The Officials: Volume 1, Issue 10 (Europe)

In ‘The Officials’, Onyx Capital Advisory publishes outright values, spreads, cracks and boxes for the main energy commodities traded in the marketplace. The published values are determined independently and on a fair market basis by our team of dedicated professionals.

Daily Trade Idea: 17/06/2024

Long Jul Barge 0.5% Crack We have seen a rise in the Jul crack this morning. Although there has been good supply of LSFO recently, the market position has been getting longer according to Onyx CoT. 

Brent Forecast: 17th June 2024

TARGET PRICE: $82-84/bbl Although we expect Brent futures to remain supported above the $80/bbl region, we hold a neutral outlook this week, with the front-month August contract to finish the week between $82/bbl and $84/bbl. This is predicated on three