Iran v Israel, again On Monday, we forecast that the front-month Brent futures contract would end the week between $71 and $74/bbl. As of Friday, 8:30am GMT (time of writing), the contract is trading at around $73.60/bbl, well within this
he Feb’25 Brent futures contract strengthened this morning from $73.45/bbl at 07:00 GMT up to $74.10/bbl around 10:50 GMT (time of writing). Crude oil prices saw support amid reports that Russia attacked Ukrainian energy facilities this morning, targeting power substations and gas infrastructure, industry sources told Reuters. In the news today, Russian forces are advancing towards the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, now focusing on consolidating control of the Donetsk region in eastern Ukraine where Russia occupies over 60% of the territory, as per Reuters. In other news, Canadian oil producers plan to hike output next year, with Cenovus setting a growth target of 4.4% between 805kb/d and 845kb/d, driven by the start-up of the Narrows Lake oil sands project. Suncor also aims to boost production in 2025 by 4.4% to between 810kb/d and 840kb/d. Finally, Nigeria’s Seplat Energy is set to revive hundreds of Exxon’s idle Nigerian oil wells after completing its purchase of Exxon’s onshore oil and gas assets in the West African nation, according to Bloomberg. Seplat plans to increase oil output by 200kb/d, with CEO Samson Ezugworie stating in a Thursday interview that only 200 of around 600 blocks are currently producing. At the time of writing, the Feb/Mar’25 and Feb/Aug’25 Brent futures spreads stand at $0.37/bbl and $1.58/bbl, respectively.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report contains Onyx Advisory’s Global Oil Liquids Balance, with projections of world oil supply (including OPEC crude oil production) and world oil demand to derive implied global oil stock changes by quarter.
The report is split into two parts: a detailed global balance on page 3 and a summary balance on page 4, which shows individual OPEC country crude production assumptions over the forecast period. The OPEC crude production level is contrasted with the ‘Call on OPEC’ crude to obtain the implied global stock change.
Historical data are sourced from the IEA, while Petro-logistics SA data are used for OPEC crude production.
Instability in the Middle East The front-month (February 2025) Brent futures contract weakened below $71/bbl on 06 Dec, dipping under the boundary of the symmetric triangle within which the M1 futures contract has oscillated since September (attached). As of Monday,
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
TARGET: $70.00/bbl – $73.50/bbl PRICE: $71.65/bbl OPEC+: Much Ado About Nothing The front-month February 2025 Brent Friday morning was roughly where it started the week, with a brief rally in between. At the time of writing, Brent was trading at
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The front-month February 2025 Brent contract kicked off Monday by rebounding from last Friday’s lows, trading towards $72.70/bbl at the time of writing. However, the path of least resistance for the flat price this week is still one of weakness
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The Jan’25 Brent futures contract concluded last week on a solid note, closing at $75.20/bbl on 22 Nov off the back of escalating tension around the Ukraine war. Prices softened to $74.35/bbl this morning, where they found support briefly, but
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 25 Nov saw increasing bullish sentiment as net positioning increased across the major oil futures benchmarks. Total net positioning rose from -118k on 18 Nov to -52k by 25 Nov, the highest level since 16 Oct, with middle distillates leading the way. The product with the most bullish positioning is now ICE gasoil, which surpassed Heating Oil on 18 Nov and rose to -4k by 25 Nov. The lower net positions are shared by RBOB, Brent, and WTI. Overall net positioning has struggled in the second half of this year and has not been positive since mid-July. It remains to be seen if the current increase in bullish positioning can be sustained.
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The Jan’25 Brent future is trading near recent bottoms, with a wedge forming with lower highs from early October and a quite weak momentum in the bear trend shown by a negative but small MACD differential. We anticipate a short
Click below to explore our new Refinery Margins Report, offering a clear, detailed analysis of weekly and monthly shifts in key regional refinery margins. This report enables readers to pinpoint where margins are tightening or loosening across regions, drawing on proprietary yields and our leading market share in swaps to build a world class financial refinery margin—essential for understanding the evolving landscape of regional refinery economics.
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
This report reviews the key data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report
The report covers oil inventory data in the OECD held by industry in million barrels and days of forward demand, as provided by the International Energy Agency
See all the updates across the barrel in this week’s Onyx Commitment of Traders report, as well as six contracts to watch amid a market desperately seeking direction. Click on the relevant button below to access your COT report.
Onyx’s in-house CTA positioning model determines the net positioning of CTAs in a range of futures benchmarks. The week ending 28 Oct saw a relatively small increase in positioning across the major oil futures benchmarks. Net positioning reached lows of -101k lots on 22 Oct before rising to -806k lots by 28 Oct. The trends were in line with the relatively rangebound flat prices of the futures conctracts, where their 20-day moving averages had generally flattened. Heating Oil currently sees the most bullish positioning at -14k, replacing WTI from the week previous, whilst RBOB gasoline holds the most bearish positioning, at -19.7k lots, replacing gasoil.
Since early November, the Jan’25 Brent crude futures contract has traded in a narrow range, between $73.50 and $76.00/bbl, with prices settling at $72.80/bbl as of 12:00 GMT on 11 November (time of writing). On US election day, 5 Nov,
This report reviews weekly oil inventory data from the US EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Global Insights’ ARA Independent Storage and International Enterprise’s Singapore product storage
This report covers the correlation in daily returns (on different rolling window periods) between the main energy contracts listed on the ICE and NYMEX exchange and the S&P 500 and the DXY dollar index.
Brent crude futures saw a relatively rangebound week, with prices in the Jan’25 contract trading between $74 and $76/bbl. Oil’s reaction to the US election result was subdued, where the ‘Trump trade’ was focused on other risk assets, including equities,
