Buy East, Sell West | S6 E12

Crude flat price has been remarkably neutral in the past week, sitting around $82/bbl (slightly down from $83/bbl). However, the market has found a genuine equilibrium – a price level where everyone seems happy.

Looking to the refinery margin, Naphtha showed significant strength with the MOPJ crack for April exceeding -$5/bbl, while Mar/Apr in the NWE region remained robust at $20/mt. Gasnaphs saw a rise from $185 to $195/mt for April, which drew bids at the relatively cheaper levels. EBOB experienced a $2/bbl rally this week, returning to strength.

The key global macro movers this week are gold and the S&P 500, which continue to make all-time highs. We should also be watching for a stronger US dollar – as European and UK data continue to weaken, while the U.S. economy remains resilient.

In our “Googling Oil” segment, Greg, James and Vincent discuss further Ukraine attacks on Russian oil infrastructure ahead of Russia’s presidential election this weekend. The other key headline this week is the OPEC and IEA being at their most divided in their oil demand forecast since at least 2008.

Vincent’s trade idea this week is Long Apr/May Brent/Dubai box.