What the OFAC is Going on? | S6 E20

Brent futures opened at $87.50 per barrel, seeing a $1 decrease due to promising ceasefire negotiations, with a Hamas delegate heading to Cairo on Monday. The market is rather sanguine on geopolitical risk, and has been de-risking over the past week, with open interest in ETFs seeing a substantial decline.

Looking to the refinery margin changes, the prompt European margin increased slightly over the week as stronger products outweighed stronger crude. There was notable strength observed in gasoline, naphtha, and 3.5% barges.

This week, James focuses on mixed U.S. data, featuring weak GDP headlines but strong inflation components, potentially posing challenges for the Federal Reserve. Powell’s press conference at this week’s Fed meeting will be closely watched.

In the “Googling Oil” segment, the prevailing headline revolves around oil pricing falling on Monday, signalling the possibility of Israel and Hamas engaging in ceasefire talks this week.

Vincent’s trade idea this week is to go short on the Q3 EBOB crack.