Will OPEC Drain the Washout? | S6 E21

If you would like to access our free comprehensive monthly oil report as mentioned in the podcast, click here.

In last week’s podcast, we had started to see pressure in the crude futures contracts, and we’ve slid to a new low of this cycle today at $82.30/bbl.

Refinery margins were the major reason for bullish Brent over the past few months, however now it’s the major reason market sentiment has flipped. Margins have strengthened slightly week-on-week, but that’s on the basis of weaker crude competing against even weaker products. It’s a self-fulfilling cycle where weaker margins are dampening demand – which reinforces bearish sentiment for structure and spreads.

Our Macro Economic specialist, James Brodie, explains that CPI, PPI, Employment Cost Index and Unit Labour Costs have all come in above expectations, while employment data is suddenly deteriorating. This is the worst case for the Federal Reserve, whose chair Jeremy Powell last week revealed that he thinks it’s unlikely the next rate move in the U.S. will be a hike.

The trade idea this week is to sell the European Naphtha crack in the prompt June contract.