Trade Idea: Long the Q1 Regrade

Martha Dowding’s recommendation this week is to long the Q1 regrade. There was a significant rally to November the 11th, where Q1 reached -58c/bbl. There was then heavy pressure as we saw the backend Sing 10ppm better bid. This is quite a fundamental trade idea as we believe the previous rhetoric surrounding El Nino is beginning to wane. We would look to enter when these retrace higher to around -80c/bbl and a target of -30c/bbl which is still lower than 2018 and 2019 levels and then move your stop up to a 10c trailing stop.