The extension announced to OPEC+’s cuts at the beginning of the month triggered a massive sell-off in Brent/Dubai, causing a variety of players to stop out of their long positions. Following this crash down, Brent/Dubai has returned to the rangebound nature we have all become all too familiar with, with the soon-to-be Bal Apr oscillating between -20c/bbl and -10c/bbl all fortnight. Looking to the more deferred, we see participants happily sell their quarterly Brent/Dubai contracts at 52c/bbl and 72c/bbl for Q3 and Q4, respectively. Accordingly, no one is willing to sell the Q3/Q4 box below 18c/bbl – fully aware of the knowledge that the back continues to be offered.
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