Finn Gordon
Research Analyst

Finn Gordon is a Research Analyst at Onyx Capital Advisory. Prior to joining Onyx, Finn completed his studies at Durham University where he studied Chemistry and gathered skills in compiling in-depth research laboratory reports.

Surprise EIA Crude Inventory Build

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The Brent futures flat price for the prompt contract has seen a relatively volatile afternoon, initially rising over $1/bbl from $77.65/bbl at 12:10 GMT, to highs of $78.67/bbl at 15:10 GMT, before retracing back lower, down to $77.20/bbl at 16:15 GMT.

The EIA released its inventory report at 15:30 GMT. It announced a crude inventory build, after previous back to back draws, with stocks increasing by 1.34mbbls. This opposes the projections set by both the API stats released last night and the median of analyst expectations, which equated to draws of 5.22mbbls and 0.15mbbls, respectively. Cushing storage saw its first decrease in 12 weeks, falling by 0.51mbbls. Moreover, the EIA forecasts a relatively flat year for crude oil prices, with Brent averaging $82/bbl in 2024 and $79/bbl in 2025.

Nigeria’s NNPC is expected to supply four crude cargoes to the Dangote refinery in February, after Dangote received 1mbbls of Agbami crude on Jan 08, taking the total volume received since Dec to 6mbbls. China’s crude oil production reached 4.18mbbls/d over the course of 2023, which when combined with gas production reached a record high of greater than 390million mt of oil equivalent in 2023.

The front and 6-month Brent futures spreads are at $0.36/bbl and $1.73/bbl, respectively.

Asian Refinery Margins: Q2-24: $7.86/bbl, Cal24: $7.73/bbl
Europe Refinery Margins: Q2-24: $5.80/bbl, Cal24: $4.88/bbl
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Research Analyst

Finn Gordon is a Research Analyst at Onyx Capital Advisory. Prior to joining Onyx, Finn completed his studies at Durham University where he studied Chemistry and gathered skills in compiling in-depth research laboratory reports.