Geopolitical Risk Equilibrium
January 30, 2024
The past fortnight saw the soon-to-be-prompt Mar Brent/Dubai contract rise above 80c/bbl on Jan 16, before sinking to 50c/bbl by Jan 24 and then rise again to 60/bbl come Jan 29.
Brent v Dubai
The spread between Crude Oil benchmarks in the North Sea (Brent) and Middle East (Dubai).
The chart displays Onyx Daily Settlements. For live prices visit Flux.
Latest News
Market Shift as OPEC+ Meeting Approaches
November 27, 2023
Daily net flows in Jan Brent/Dubai have been heavily skewed toward the sell-side from the middle of November with the 7-day trading split sitting 30:70 on a long:short basis. Market dynamics are tentative as the looming OPEC+ meeting dominates sentiment,
Edge Updates
Dubai Market Report – Banks Just Can’t Get Enough (Of Brent/Dubai)
July 16, 2024
A fortnight of two halves in Brent/Dubai, encapsulating the market’s duality in the year-to-date. The first week was relatively rangebound as prices hovered around -10c/bbl, with volumes low due to the US holiday. As Brent and WTI rallied, Dubai did not follow up as aggressively. This resulted in a massive rally where Aug jumped from -10c/bbl to +40c/bbl in a week, with the banks and funds being the buy-side aggressors.
Dubai Market Report – Not So Easy (OS)Peasy
July 2, 2024
It seems like the flipping of the calendar month has brought with it a debilitation of Dubai’s strength. The prompt contract has returned to what would be arguably ‘normal’ positives, considering the makeup of the barrel.
Dubai Market Report – Dubai? More like Do-sell!
June 18, 2024
It seems like the flipping of the calendar month has brought with it a debilitation of Dubai’s strength. The prompt contract has returned to what would be arguably ‘normal’ positives, considering the makeup of the barrel.
Dubai Market Report – Say Du-bye to $100/bbl
June 4, 2024
Following a period of extraordinary weakness in crude, with Brent and Dubai both falling over $6.50/bbl between May 29 and Jun 03, there has been no shortage of interesting price action.
Dubai Market Report – Dubai Bling
May 21, 2024
Dubai Bling – Two weeks ago, the prompt Brent/Dubai appeared to be hitting a bottom at -14c/bbl with players anticipating a recovery upwards in the near term.
Dubai Market Report – MurbanMania
May 7, 2024
MurbanMania – Overall bearish price action in Brent/Dubai has been unsurprising and the rolldown is generally expected.
Hello Ranges, My Old Friend: Dubai Market Report
April 23, 2024
The May Brent/Dubai recorded a feeble fortnight amid prices coming off from a high of $1.10/bbl on Apr 12 to sub-zero territory less than a week later with the move downwards exacerbated by players stopping out of length.
Brent/Du-buy buy buy: Dubai Market Report
April 9, 2024
The past fortnight forced the May Brent/Dubai out of its range, with price action plummeting from +15c/bbl on Mar 25 to a low of -40c/bbl on Apr 02.
Comfort Zone: Dubai Market Report
March 26, 2024
This fortnight in the Dubai market, we see the market once again tied to ranges.
Dubai Market Report: Oils Well That Ends Well
March 12, 2024
Following our previous report, OPEC subsequently announced on March 3rd that they would be extending their cuts from the first quarter of 2024 into Q2 2024. This development, despite wide speculations that the cuts would be maintained, was evidently not
Forget Joshua vs Ngannou – Brent/Dubai Boxes the Biggest Puncher
January 16, 2024
After a relatively rangebound week to Jan 11 for Feb Brent/Dubai, oscillating around the 30c/bbl mark, price action soared – rising over 80c/bbl in less than a week to reach highs of 102c/bbl on Jan 16. Jan 12 was the catalyst rising over 50c/bbl intraday.
G(OSP)ing Around: An Insight into Dubai Crude
December 5, 2023
And just like that the OPEC meeting came and went. Jan slipped to a low of -40c/bbl on Nov 30 following the meeting as Dubai bulls half-heartedly sold into the immediate aftermath, letting prices peak below the lower Bollinger Band. Then as we collectively turned our pages on our calendars (us who still use paper) the Dubai bulls lost control and prices began to rally.
Crude Futures on Hold with EIA announcing more builds than Saudi Arabia
November 20, 2023
The past week has been a tale of two halves, with initial strength at the beginning of the week taking futures out of oversold sight, all for the EIA to come back with a vengeance (prime Batman style) and announce
Newsflash: CFDs are like soo last week
November 15, 2023
Crude: CFDs are riding the long wave, but how high are we expecting this tide to go?
Fuel – Dec 0.5 Barge Crack: strutting its stuff, but brace yourself for a price reversal – it’s the rollercoaster you never asked for!
Distillates – To quote Ned Stark, winter is coming (for Japan) – giving Regrade a bit of an upgrade
Cocaine [Brent and WTI] Bear
November 14, 2023
Declining oil prices saw both Brent and WTI decrease for the third consecutive week, dragging both prompt futures price actions below $80/bbl to 3-month lows of $79.54/bbl and $75.33/bbl on Nov 8 for Brent and WTI, respectively. The bearish addiction
Pulp Futures
November 13, 2023
The market is in flux, with Brent and RBOB channeling their inner Vincent Vega and Mia Wallace. Brent has got its bearish groove on, while RBOB’s cautiously strutting a bullish outlook, likely fueled by some refinery drama.