Macro Mondays

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian sits down with Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss the latest macroeconomic news, risks, and trends.

They analyse recent Chinese industrial production and retail sales data, which shows China’s industrial production printing below expectations in May, at 5.6% year-on-year, while at 3.7%, retail sales beat expectations. They also discuss US industrial output, which rose 0.9% in May, and take a deep dive into recent US housing and building permit statistics. The UK is also considered, with CPI, retail sales, and PMI data for June all examined.

They have an update on various central bank policy rate decisions, the Euro area’s struggles and on NVIDIA’s relentless rise, given it briefly became the world’s largest company by market cap last week.

Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in for an update on Europe’s underperforming but potentially hopeful tech sector, the upcoming French legislative election, and finally South Korea’s worsening demographic emergency. Harry Tchilinguirian then explains a potential commodity-related trade idea.

Today, Macro specialist James Brodie discusses last week’s weaker than expected US economic data, as well as the more hawkish Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank. Research Analyst, Harry Nedeljkovic weighs in on the up-coming French election, in addition to Argentina and especially their economic situation. Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian joins Macro Mondays for the first time to talk through how the recent data out of China may come to impact oil demand.

CPI & PPI both came in lower than expected and US consumer sentiment fell sharply to a 7-month low. Yet the Fed see the Unemployment rate remaining at 4.0% until year end.

China data was interesting this week; Industrial production (5.6%) came in lower than expected (YoY growth decelerated) but retail sales beat expectations at +3.7%. However, the property price fall was the largest monthly fall in over 13 years.

The key data to look out for this week is;

Tuesday – US retail sales & Industrial production, plus RBA.

Wednesday – U.S. markets closed, UK inflation

Thursday – BOE & SNB

Friday – U.S. PMI data, UK & Canada retail sales.

Macro-Economic Specialist James Brodie is joined by Onyx Research Analyst Harry Nedeljkovic to discuss what’s been happening in the markets, including Friday’s US pay roll data, the European elections over the weekend, and the big moves in gold. James and Harry also discuss the Trade of the week, EURUSD and GameStop.

Friday’s US payroll data saw 272,000 jobs created last month, much higher than expect the expected 180,000 jobs – which took the market by surprise, resulting in yields being ramped much higher and the US dollar strengthening aggressively.

The European elections took place this weekend, with Identity & Democracy winning 58 seats (gaining 9 seats) and the EPP with 186 seats (gaining 10 seats). Whilst the Socialists and Democrats have reduced their vote share along with the Greens, the centre right has managed to maintain a decent amount. With immigration sky-rocketing since Brexit, Harry and James answer the question; is this discontent with immigration, or with government?

Roaring Kitty is also back in the news this week after resurfacing on a live stream watched by hundreds of thousands on Friday; James and Harry discuss his influence on the market.

On to the chart of the week, the EURUSD broker lower again. The market reacted strongly to the dollar after strong US payrolls, with the biggest two day move lower since September.

NVIDIA and GameStop are back in the news headlines this week. On Monday morning we saw GameStop up 85% after hours in the overnight trading session. Keith Gill, aka Roaring Kitty, came out on Sunday night on his social media accounts to reveal that he owns $115.7 million of GameStop equity.
NVIDIA is now 40% of the S&P growth this year. The Nasdaq had an interesting price movement on Friday, with key support at 18,4014. The market tried to break below on Friday, but in the last 20 minutes of the day saw aggressive buying.

Last week, the VIX index traded down to four-year lows and interest rate volatility (MOVE Index) traded down to one-year lows. James expects volatility to pick up, which would mean more aggressive moves – meaning Nvidia and Tech stocks in general would be the prime for a sell-off.

Looking at property, in yet another attempt to support the falling house market in China, the Shandong province lowered the minimum down payment ratio for personal housing loans and also removed the lower limit on loan interest rates. Over to Japan, though, it’s a different issue with 9,000000 empty properties.

The key data to look out for this week is US ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, JOLTS job openings on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday we have the Bank of Canada, US Service PMI and Australian GDP. On Thursday, it’s the ECB meeting. And then the big one on Friday is the US payrolls data.

On today’s show, James focuses on the stronger-than-expected US economic data, which has pushed yields higher. He also discusses the growing concerns around employment, the booming Indian economy, weakening UKL data, and unfortunate timing with the election looming.

Some charts and trade ideas that James discusses include NVIDIA, Nasdaq, silver, copper, and USDJPY.

If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie

On today’s show, James discusses the recent break out in the equity markets, and the huge surge higher in commodities with a particular focus on silver. Copper and Gold are at all-time highs and silver has broken out aggressively from of a key resistance level at $30, which previously acted as triple top. Nickle, Tin, Zinc, Aluminium and other metals are surging higher and even orange juice is trading at all-time highs.

Last week’s data has created some interesting moves in the markets. US CPI came in at 3.4% on expectations, confirming inflation is falling again. But on the flip side, retail sales data told us that the consumer in the US is hurting, unemployment is ticking up and the economy is slowing.

The key data to look out for this week is; Canadian CPI on Tuesday, UK CPI, Nvidia earnings, US exiting home sales and FED minutes on Wednesday, the Eurozone and UK PMIs on Thursday and US durable goods orders and UK retail sales on Friday.

If you would like to connect with any of your host, James Brodie or ask a question, you can follow him X (formally Twitter) @jamesrbrodie

On today’s show James looks back on last week’s disappointing data, this weeks upcoming CPI data, and key levels in markets, particularly looking at equities, fixed income and also gold.

Precious metals are rallying again. The PBOC bought gold for 18th straight month in April, adding 60k Troy ounces to its reserves. In fact, Global central banks have bought 2,100 tonnes of gold in the last 2 years.

James digs into why the stocks we couldn’t stop hearing about, by the likes of Peloton, Beyond Meat, Zoom, Rivian and Lucid have fallen by up to 90%, while the S&P and Nasdaq are a fraction off making new all-time highs.

The big mover this week was again cocoa. In one week, it has seen a 1-day fall by 15%, a 1-day rally by 13%. Both are the largest 1-day swings in 65 years.

On today’s show James discusses softening economic data out of the US, where there are murmurs of stagflation, the less hawkish Fed Chairman Powell and the weaker than expected employment data.

He also examines the big movers for this week. USDJPY with 2 rounds of intervention and cocoa has also fallen 41.5% in just 3 days. There’s no key economic data in the week ahead so the market will trend off the employment data. Geopolitical tensions also appear to be diminishing so keep an eye on the U.S. 2 year yields, the dollar index , the S&P and gold for key moves.

On today’s show James discusses recent mixed economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the Yen volatility. He also dives into what’s happening with gold, silver, tech and equity markets.

Looking at recent employment data, James explains that although employment data is strong, the jobs that are being created are part time jobs and full time jobs are being lost. In fact, 1.34 million fulltime jobs have been lost, which is not a good sign for the economy…

On today’s show James discusses recent strong economic data out of the US, OIS pricing and the US dollar strength.

He also dives into what’s happening with gold, silver and equity markets. It seems like tech stocks are crashing at the moment, with Nvidia -21.8 from ATH and Tesla down 49.4% from its all-time high.

James walks us through recent US unemployment data and lets us know the risks to watch for the week ahead.